Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Looking toward 2010

This has been true for a long time but our latest national poll provides yet more evidence that next year's elections will be decided by which party can do a better job of getting its voters out to the polls.

People who voted for Barack Obama last year say they will go Democratic for Congress in 2010 by a margin of 80-7. In other words there are very few Obama voters switching sides so far.

In fact there are actually slightly more McCain voters expressing intent to vote Democratic in 2010. His supporters say they'll go Republican by a 78-10 margin. That may include a lot of southern Democrats who have a habit of supporting their Blue Dog members of Congress while voting Republican for President.

This is just more evidence there really aren't all that many voters abandoning Obama. His approval rating with people who voted for him on our last poll was 92%. But his supporters do seem to be somewhat complacent or unenthusiastic right now and Democrats got a taste of what that can lead to in New Jersey and Virginia this year.

Republicans should have a good year in 2010 and I'm sure many will interpret it as a repudiation of Obama. But I'm still inclined to think the biggest reason for the GOP resurgence will be Democratic disinterest, and that what happens in 2010 may say little about what will happen in 2012.

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