The winners of our vote on where to poll next week were Florida and Nevada. West Virginia came in a close third and we will try to squeeze one in there as well.
What should we ask besides the obvious horse race stuff in those three states?
In particular I am interested in who we should test in hypotheticals against John Ensign and Bill Nelson. We've already tried both Democratic members of Congress, the Attorney General, and the Secretary of State against Ensign. We looked at Jeb Bush and George LeMieux against Nelson in July.
But any creative/interesting ideas for questions in those states would be appreciated. We have some good stuff still coming from our Connecticut poll tomorrow and from our New York poll on Friday.
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You could try Jill Derby as an Ensign opponent, she ran against Dean Heller in NV-2 twice. Her performance was respectable given that NV-2 is the rural/conservative district.
Does anyone think Ensign will run again? Test Dean Heller or Brian Krolicki as the Republican nominee.
Test Oscar Goodman as the Democrat. Or as an indy in a 3-way.
Tom Gallagher in Florida.
I think look at Gov. Crist and Atty. Gen. McCollum against Sen. Nelson in Florida; look at Rory Reid and Las Vegas Mayor Goodman against Sen. Ensign in Nevada.
And I'd like to add I really hope you poll West Virginia. A hypothetical matchup of Rep. Capito against Sen. Rockefeller in West Virginia could be interesting.
you should try charlie crist.
Against Ensign I would like to see some former officer what would not leave free no-one office. The more important democratic former officers and with good age for run are:
- Bob Miller, the former 2.5 term Governor.
- Frankie Sue Del Papa, the former three term Attorney General
I would like see about a republican primary too. The obvious choice would be:
- Brian Krolicki, the Lieutenant Governor.
- Dean Heller, the republican congressman.
When you poll NV, of course hopefully you also do all House race (with big enough samples to release, not like last time), but not so interesting b/c, 1 is Safe Dem, 2 is safe R, and 3 is slightly leaning R. And in WV we need desperately a Oliverio vs. McKinley in 1st district, Capito is definitely safe, and Rahall might be too.
I said this before in the other thread but I'll repeat it here. Please poll the Attorney Generals race in Florida, Pam Bondi vs. Dan Gelber. In addition, AFTER you poll the general horse race question (Scott vs Sink) and poll Fav/Unfav for both Scott and Sink. Ask them your voters does Rick Scott's dealings as CEO of Columbia HCA results in a fine of $1.7 Billion for the largest Medicare fraud in history have influence in how they are voting. I am interested to see how many likely Florida voters are aware and are influenced by the baggage Rick Scott is carrying.
You always determine how Obama and McCain voters are going to vote, but what might be more significant would be how people who voted Democratic for House or Senate in 2008 are going to vote this year. If Republicans are going to do better, are they stealing voters or getting people who didn't vote last time?
For Florida and Nevada you could ask whether they voted for a Republican or Democrat for Congress in 2008 and how they plan to vote this year. How will Rockefeller voters vote this year in West Virginia?
How about a John Ensign vs. Harry Reid contest?
For Florida, try Connie Mack IV.
Could you do a hypothetical 2012 primary poll in FL and include Rubio as the bonus Republican?
I think a better question to ask is to test how many voters are even aware of the charges/beliefs/etc. about the candidates in question.
So, for example, in a Nevada poll you could ask: "Do you believe Sharon Angle supports the elimination of Social Security?"
In FL, current AG candidate Pam Bondi, if she wins, is considered a strong candidate for senate, along with LG candidate Jennifer Carrol. Also, maybe Congressmen Connie Mack IV and Lincoln Diaz Balart?
Tom & Dustin,
Can you squeeze in House races in the small states like Nevada (3)? Or West Virginia (3)? Between them, they have 3 interesting races.
For Nevada, you may have exhausted all Democrats. I would poll Berkley again, but be sure to poll this race because its interesting to know how the Ensign scandal has evolved. Maybe try other Republicans besides Ensign.
For Florida 2012, you could do one of the many House members (Ros-Lethinen or whatever her name is or the Diaz-Balart staying in Congress)
Be sure to ask about the generic congressional ballot in Florida.
Ask about the Florida redistricting proposition which would make independent commissions. Florida is one of the most gerrymandered in the country and Democrats are pumping a lot of money into this so they don't get squeezed out by Republican control of the state legislature. See some recent stories in Politico.
Uh, forgot to mention, poll some down ballot races in Florida and Nevada.
Poll the NV-3 House race. Also poll Shelley Berkley versus John Ensign.
When you poll in Florida, poll the support for the ballot initiative to make redistricting nonpartisan.
For Nevada, if you're polling the 2012 GOP presidential field, make sure you poll Heller and/or Krolicki against Ensign. I think most of the viable Democratic options have been mentioned above. Also, you might want to ask a "what if" for 2010: Lowden or Tarkanian against Harry Reid, to see how much Angle is hurting Republicans.
For Florida, Adam Putnam, Connie Mack, Vern Buchanan, and Bill McCollum are all good Republicans to poll against Nelson. You could also check in on the Fair Districts initiative, which could greatly impact redistricting in the state in 2011.
@Anon
PPP conduct a semi-push-poll? Please don't suggest that.
In Florida, in addition to the three way senate race test Meek v. Rubio and Crist v. Rubio. Perhaps seeing the poll will convince the weaker of the two candidates to drop out.
Some more suggestions:
Test Bush again v. Nelson to establish some trend lines on the race. Also test McCollum.
In Nevada: please test the districts as well.
If you end up doing WV: test the districts as well.
In WV you should test both this November's Senate Manchin v. Raese contest, but then also ask respondents that if Raese does win what their vote would be in 2012 if there was a rematch between Manchin and Raese (a continuation of the Manchin in the Mansion vote, because Manchin's term will have ended by then) - and the also test 2012 Raese v. Tennant and Raese v. Rahall - and Manchin v. Capito.
Nevada Republican Primary 2012 against Ensign more interesting that the general. Ensign v. Heller.
Other than that, Ensign v. Titus, Ensign v. Harry Reid (if he loses to Angle; rematch of 1998), and Ensign v. Berkley.
Florida:
Ask about alan grayson's approval statewide, amongst all partisan identifiers. Support for off shore drilling. whether or not Crist's tan seems normal.
Nevada.
ask about support for ron paul (he did place 2nd in the 2008 primary). If you're supporting reid, would you if he wasn't majority/minority leader? if he resigned the post within a year of being re-elected would you be less likely to vote for him again?
I know it's highly unlikely to get his race polled, but I would love to see some type favorability for Alan Grayson in Florida.
Follow-up Horse Race Question for Florida:
Please imagine that Kendrick Meek was not in the race. In this situation, would you vote for Republican candidate Marco Rubio or Independent candidate Charlie Crist?
I would test a generic R against Ensign in the GOP primary, and then a Generic R v. Generic D in the Senate race. I don't think Ensign will make it to the general election.
Are you a member of the Tea Party or sympathetic to its goals?
Who is more prone to verbal gaffes, Angle or Reid?
Do you support legalized gambling and prostitution in Nevada?
In Florida, how about Allen West, Bill McCollum, or Mike Huckabee (now a Florida resident) against Nelson?
NV-SEN GOP 2012 primary, does Ensign even stand a chance against Heller. In FL on the redistricting initiative, has to reach 60%
Connie Mack, Pam Bondi
To the clueless person at 10:28 PM, I was not suggesting PPP conduct a semi push poll against Rick Scott by asking about his dealing when CEO of Columbia HCA. I was first asking them to ask the question after they asked about the general horse race and polled the favorables. Second, PPP did the same thing when they polled Virginia governor in 2009 and asked if the Bob McDonnell's thesis would have any impact on their vote. They've done it before they can do it again.
Rush Limbaugh lives in Florida. Just sayin'!!!
Definitely agree you should poll Connie Mack IV. He almost ran in 2010 and his famous name could give him more name recognition than the average Florida Republican.
A preview of the West Virginia governor's race would be fun regardless of which year it happens in.
Try John Chachas against Ensign... He was trying to establish something in this year's GOP Senate race.. but did not have grassroots, but he impressed a lot of people (including the largest Northern Nevada Tea Party group).
He'll be able to get more grassroots in a run two years later.
How about polling Sue Lowden vs. incumbent John Ensign in the 2012 GOP primary?
I REALLY would like to see you ask whether respondents prefer a Democrat or Republican controlled state legislature in Florida. The GOP grip on it is extremely tight and they are only 4 state house and 1 state senate seat away from veto-proof control. It would be interesting to see if the anti-Democrat feelings towards Washington are trickling down to there, despite the large GOP majority and high disapproval of the legislature's job.
Danny Tarkanian. People are realizing Sharron was the wrong choice. He is a true conservative without the "issues" of Angle.
Given the latest controversy between Angle-Reid, a religion based question would be very interesting for the 2010 races. Not to mention the two LDS dems running on the front page (Only other state you can see that is, obviously, Utah), when the Mormon church is typically solid red.
How bout Ross Miller vs Steven Horsford for Dem 2012 senate primary
Or Miller vs Buckley vs Berkeley.
Ask about a two-way Crist-Rubio race.
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