Monday, November 1, 2010

Burr leads by 12

Richard Burr leads Elaine Marshall 52-40 on PPP's final poll for the North Carolina Senate election. Burr is winning with independents and getting 22% of the Democratic vote while only 6% of Republicans are crossing over to vote for Marshall.

Burr significantly improved his image with North Carolina voters during the last two months of the campaign after launching heavy television advertising. For most of the year his approval numbers were mired in the 30s but now 45% of voters say they approve of the job he's doing to 39% who disapprove, solid numbers for a Senator in this political climate.

Marshall's personal favorability numbers are pretty good as well, with 40% of voters seeing her positively to 35% with a negative opinion. The greatest difficulty for Marshall's campaign has been the specter of Barack Obama's unpopularity in the state. He has only a 41% approval rating with 55% of voters disapproving of him and there's a near total correlation between how voters feel about Obama and how they're planning to vote in the Senate race. Voters happy with Obama are going with Marshall by an 87-6 margin. Voters unhappy with Obama are going with Burr by an 89-6 margin. It's hard to see how any Democratic nominee would have been able to overcome that in North Carolina this year.

The biggest issue for Democrats in the state beyond Obama this year is turnout. We anticipate that Democrats will have about a 6 point advantage in terms of whom comes out to vote this year, in contrast to their actual 13 point registration advantage in the state. With independents leaning toward the GOP and a good number of conservative Democrats doing so as well this year Democrats need to exceed those turnout projections to avoid heavy losses tomorrow.

Full results here

10 comments:

wt said...

Don't end the cycle with this post. I think a big, bold, self-indulgent summary and prediction of races is appropriate.

Thanks for all of the hard work. I'm going to miss this cycle.

Anonymous said...

I guess the curse is finally broken. Hasn't this seat switched parties every 6 years since Jesse Helms?

The Interesting Times said...

I have posted my eleventh-hour predictions of tomorrow's election results on my blog. I look forward to seeing how my mathematical model-based predictions fare compared to those made by the pollsters.

Waldo said...

It must be the "wife, clean out the ATM and hide the money in a shoebox" vote.

Al Pippin said...

"We/PPP anticipate that Democrats will have a 6 point advantage in terms of whom comes out to vote..."

YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS Tom. Or are you?

That is, unless you're counting the Democrat vs Republican voter cross overs, favoring Burr by 16%.

Up to that point, your commentary seemed rather reasonable - pretty much matching what most other major pollsters are reporting.

Or am I missing something?

Thanks.

Jake said...

Looks like an uphill battle for Secretary Marshall. I know they sent out an e-mail on Thursday saying they'd soon be airing one last Television ad. So its full effect might not have made its way into this poll.

That would be a lot of ground to try to make up, but with that and their ground game, maybe its a long shot rather than an impossibility. A recent Elon poll about the Senate said Dems 33%, GOP 33%, and 27% undecided. But their tie came from including cell phones & not restricting to likely voters.

I guess tomorrow will be the poll that counts the most.

Ranjit said...

Jake,

It is over. Right now the question is, What will be the margin? Is it 10 to 15% or 15 to 20%. People are paying attention to Bob etheridge and Rene Ellmers race. Also,yesterday I got a word from local GOP that, David Price is in serious trouble. Even if David price wins and if it is below 5%, democrats will have a tough day in NC

Dustin Ingalls said...

"I guess the curse is finally broken. Hasn't this seat switched parties every 6 years since Jesse Helms?"

This isn't Helms' seat. This is the John Edwards/Lauch Faircloth/Terry Sanford, et al, seat, and yes, it has switched parties in 1980, 1986, 1992, 1998, and 2004, and no incumbent has been re-elected to it since Sam Ervin in 1968.

"Or am I missing something?"

Yes. Among other things, reading comprehension skills.

"Also,yesterday I got a word from local GOP that, David Price is in serious trouble."

No, he's not. Etheridge may be, though.

Christian Liberty said...

"I'm going to miss this cycle."

The party's not over. Republicans will increase their numbers in the House and the Senate in 2012. And "someone else" is the favorite for president in 2012. Our long national nightmare (seeing a pitiful manchild impersonating the president) will be over in two short years.

The Interesting Times said...

Christian Liberty:
"Republicans will increase their numbers in the House and the Senate in 2012."

I'm not so sure about that. 2010 seems to have blessed the Republicans with a number of easy targets. The Democrats up for reelection in 2012, by contrast, are more moderate and more popular.

 
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