We've had a bit of a slow week getting back into the swing of things here after the election but we're ready to get going again here.
There's a ton of data from our final round of elections polls that we'll be getting out in the next couple weeks- we have 2011 Kentucky Governor numbers, Manchin v. Capito numbers, 2012 Nevada GOP Senate primary numbers, and then for all 18 states we have 2012 GOP Presidential primary numbers and generic Obama reelect numbers. We'll start putting out the latter tomorrow- New Hampshire, California, Colorado, Illinois, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania.
We're going to get started with our 2012 polling this weekend in Virginia and Montana. The next 6 months or so are when crowdsourcing is really important to our work. We don't know who all the candidates will be in these races yet so it's the time when we test stuff and see how it comes out. So please give us your suggestions on match ups to test for Virginia Senate and Montana Senate and Governor, as well as other things we should ask in those states.
We had a great cycle in 2010 and we're ready to get the 2012 one under way!
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2010
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November
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- Going deep on the Republicans
- Republicans want Steele out
- NC voters opposed to early childhood cuts
- McCrory leads Perdue in rematch
- Obama leads all Republicans
- Americans not impressed with Bloomberg
- Palin not seen as electable
- Burris' Prospects
- Taking Suggestions...
- NC looks like it would be competitive again
- Not much of a mandate...
- Decline your health care, say GOP voters
- Perils of having it both ways...
- Slight GOP lean for Montana Governor
- NC support special session on redistricting
- Virginia Republicans want Allen
- Obama slips in Montana
- Webb, Kaine lead Allen
- Mixed News for Tester
- Obama looking solid in Virginia
- Wrapping up the 2012 GOP polls
- Previewing Montana and Virginia
- Ranking the Popularity of the Appointed Senators
- Taking suggestions...
- The rest of the 2012 polls...
- Palin no 'Mama Grizzly' herself--and don't expect ...
- Some good signs for Palin
- Beshear posts early lead
- Mixed Messages in Ensign Primary Numbers
- And the GOP primary numbers...
- Obama's Reelect
- Coming Up
- The 2012 Senate Class
- The Price of the Tea Party
- Looking Forward
- Governor Candidate Favorabilities
- Senate Candidate Favorabilities
- Obama a big drag
- Burr leads by 12
- Florida Gov very close
- Nevada going down to the wire...
- California tightens
- Rossi holds small lead
- GOP ahead in Illinois
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November
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Questions or Comments?
18 comments:
In VA, Cuccineli and Allen.
MT Senate, Rehberg vs. Tester.
For Virginia Senate test the obvious George Allen matchup. But also perhaps test Eric Cantor, Ken Cuccinelli, and/or Bill Bolling.
In Montana, the only ones who come to mind are Marc Racicot and Denny Rehberg.
Montana Senate
Tester v Rehberg
Montana Governor
Former US Rep. Rick Hill (R) v Lt. Governor John Bohlinger (D)
Virginia
George Allen & Ken Cuccinelli v Jim Webb
Virginia: Eric Cantor v. Webb.
Bob McDonnell v. Webb.
Bill Bolling v. Webb.
Janet Polarek (SoS) v. Webb.
Ken Cuccinelli v. Webb.
Tommy Norment (Senate Minority Leader) v. Webb.
Montana: Denny Rehberg v. Tester.
Robert Story (Senate Majority Leader) v. Tester.
Tom Hanel (Billings mayor) v. Tester.
Michael Winters (Great Falls mayor) v. Tester.
In MT Gov, it is important to note that Lt. Gov John Bollinger, even though he ran on a ticket with Schwietzer, is a Republican. If he ran for Gov though, I think he would do it as a Democrat.
For VA, obviously Allen vs Webb, but, there is also the possibility that Webb will retire. May also be interesting to try Tom Periello in his place. Other potential Republican candidates are AG Ken Cuccinelli, Lt. Gov Bill Bolling, and former Rep. Tom Davis.
Poll some likely Dem replacements for Webb since he's on the fence about running, such as former Congressman Tom Perriello and former Governor Tim Kaine.
For Virginia: A lot of people have been throwing out Bob Marshall, who lost the 2008 GOP Senate convention by 1 vote to Jim Gilmore. Test him either in a primary against Allen or a general against Webb.
Jim Webb will retire. Eric Cantor isn't leaving the House. Bob McDonnell has been the governor for a year. He won't leave.
Is PPP going to review your successes and failures from the election and analyze what you've been doing right and doing wrong?
I'm concerned that Tester might be a little to weak due to his underwhelming victory in 2006. (he should have beat damaged Burnes by a lot more). There has been talk about a swap where Tester runs for governor and term-limited Brian Schweitzer runs for the senate. Please test a Schweitzer vs. Rehberg match-up. Brian Schweitzer did run for the senate in 2000 and may be interested in running again.
For VA you have to poll Perriello and Kaine against Allen and Cucciennli and maybe Davis as well.
Webb may not run, so getting another look would be good to see if the Dems could hold the seat otherwise.
Do you guys plan to poll the presidential race in the states, just the primary, some generic reelects or what?
Here are some suggestions for Virginia:
First, don't assume Jim Webb is running again. He's raised very little money in the last couple of years (like in the hundreds of dollars) and doesn't seem interested in Senate life.
So you may want to poll Tom Perriello, the workhorse progressive congressman who lost his seat this year.
So here are my suggestions:
Tom Perriello and Jim Webb vs George Allen
Tom Perriello and Jim Webb vs Ken Cuccineli
Tom Perriello and Jim Webb vs Bill Bolling
Tom Perriello and Jim Webb vs Bob McDonnell
Tom Perriello and Jim Webb vs Robert Hurt
You may also wish to poll Bob McDonnell's approval rating.
In Montana, poll Denny Rehberg vs Jon Tester. For Governor, Former Congressman Rick Hill is running as a Republican.
VA: Webb V. Allen
Kaine V. Allen
Periello v. Allen
Webb v. Bolling
Webb v. Cucinelli
MT: Tester v. Rehberg
Tester v. Racicot
Tester v. Martz (fmr. gov)
not that I think a Tester retirement is likely but...
Schweitzer v. Rehberg
Schweitzer v. Racicot
You should poll NB Sen next followed by OH, ND and MO.
For Virginia, test Del. Bob Marshall as the Republican nominee for Senate, as he came within 1 vote in 2008. For the Democrats, I think it is possible that Gerry Connolly or someone like state Sen. Chap Peterson run if Webb drops out.
Some MT ideas that haven't been suggested:
MT-AL: Rehberg vs. state auditor Monica J. Lindeen and AG Steve Bullock. If Rehberg doesn't take the plunge for Senate the Dems can still give him a challenge for reelection with either of these two.
I'm a bit of a MT insider, so I think I probably know more about Montana politics than the other people posting here.
The two people in the run against Tester would be 2008 Lt. Gov. Nominee Steve Daines, who's the one who will probably get it if Rehberg doesn't declare for some reason.
If at-Large Congressman Denny Rehberg throws his hat in the ring, he'll get the nod.
As for the other mentions here: Marc Racicot is now happily working as a DC lobbyist. He won't run.
Judy Martz left with approval in the 20's and has to my knowledge not recovered politically.
Robert Story... mh, could be, but he likely wouldn't gain any traction against Rehberg. He could beat Daines though.
The Billings and Great Falls mayors I can't see running, or winning a primary.
For Governor, I don't see how anyone beats Rick Hill in the primary, though State Sen. Taylor Brown might try to no avail.
As Democratic candidates, test Atty Gen. Steve Bullock (who probably won't run because Rick Hill is too strong, but he'd be the best Democrats could get), or State Sen. Dave Wanzenried if Democrats choose to defer to Hill and run a sacrifical lamb.
Bohlinger is a Republican, he couldn't win a Democratic primary, neither would he be interested in a run.
It would also be interesting to test Denise Juneau. She won't run, I think, but she's a rising star and WILL run at some point, just not this cycle.
Also, Tester won't retire and won't be swapped against anyone.
I don't see any way Webb is running for re-election in '12. He'll either be retiring or SecDef (I hear he's lobbying HARD to replace Gates).
I'm thinking a good set of ballot test in VA would be Connolly and Periello vs Allen, Cooch and Bollings
http://www.rollcall.com/news/-200350-1.html
Neil Livingstone against Tester
Businessman and 2008 Lt. Governor nominee Steve Daines is announcing on Saturday for Republican for Montana Senate and Neil Livingstone director of a crisis management firm is a potential candidate.
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