Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Not much of a mandate...

If you need any more proof that Republicans retaking control of the House earlier this month wasn't much of a mandate consider this: 55% of Americans think House Republicans should replace the leaders they've had for the last couple years to only 27% who believe they should keep their positions with the ascent to the majority.

Independents were integral to the big Republican gains earlier this month and they in particular think it's time for the GOP to clean house- only 20% of them think the party should keep its current leadership in the House while 57% think it should be replaced. The results of last week's leadership elections made it clear Republicans don't plan any change of course and that's a big part of why Democrats could conceivably take the House right back in 2012- the GOP may need to change its act to keep the support of these independents but it doesn't appear to have any interest in doing so.

Democrats predictably think the Republicans should clean house, by a 67/17 margin. What might be more surprising is the continuing dissension within the GOP ranks- only 43% of Republican voters think the party should keep its leaders while 40% think they should be replaced. There had been some thought that winning would heal all wounds but that's clearly not the case- much of the GOP rank and file still wants to see a change in the party's Washington leadership.

One of the most interesting shows to watch for the next two years is going to be whether the Republicans in the House can find a way to keep their party base happy without completely losing the support they received from independents this year.

Full results here

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yeah sure, everyone will embrace the Dems becuase they changed their leadership [sarcasm]....

Anonymous said...

Look these "house divided" stories are interesting and probably true as a snapshot...but when push comes to shove meme's like "Trey Grayson voters aren't supporting Paul" evaporate in the voting booth: http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/graysons-supporters.html

My take: Policies matter. Boehner maybe an old guard type but if he holds the line on spending etc. then the base will rally around him.

John C. Drew, Ph.D. said...

The reality of the situation, however, is that voters have rejected Obama's radical, Marxist socialist agenda. It just took them longer than expected to figure out how radical he really is...

Anonymous said...

Only you guys can make winning 62 or more seats in the house, the biggest rout in decades, seem like a bad thing. If republicans are so hated and they won 62 seats from dems, what does that say about dems i wonder?

Anonymous said...

Voters might not be embracing the GOP, but they're certainly repudiating Obama's leftist agenda.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"If republicans are so hated and they won 62 seats from dems, what does that say about dems i wonder?"

That there was a huge enthusiasm gap, and that independents continue to flip-flop between the two parties. Nothing more, nothing less.

DBL said...

It's simple. Do a good job and get unemployment down. If they do that independents will forgive the Republicans for not working with the Democrats enough and tea partyers will forgive for working with them too much. If you're successful, it's easy to get away with things that'd piss people off if you weren't.

Dustin Ingalls said...

I don't think Republicans will get the credit if the economy improves.

 
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