Sarah Palin might think she could get elected President in 2012, but few Americans agree. Only 28% of voters in the country think that Palin is capable of defeating Barack Obama while 60% think she is not and 12% aren't sure.
What might be most troubling for Palin within those numbers is that less than half of Republicans think she's capable of beating Obama- 48% think she would be able to, 37% think she would not be able to, and 15% have no opinion. Republicans continue overwhelmingly to like Palin- 67% have a favorable opinion of her- but a pretty large number of them have serious electability concerns about her.
Many GOP voters who admire Palin may be left having to decide whether it's more important to them to defeat Barack Obama or to help advance her political career and that may prove to be too high a hurdle for her to overcome.
At the same time these numbers also suggest a risk of complacency for Democrats if Palin were to win the 2012 nomination. 82% of them say they think Palin's incapable of beating Obama to just 12% who think she could. Palin trails Obama by 9 points in a hypothetical contest right now. That's a lot of ground to make up in the next two years but if voters continue to be unhappy with the state of the economy and Democrats take an Obama/Palin match up for granted something unexpected could happen. If Palin does win the nomination Obama will need to find a way to convince his troops to work as hard as they did in 2008 anyway and not leave anything to chance.
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