We're obviously not going to do any polls over Thanksgiving Weekend- you can look forward to the rest of our national and North Carolina surveys to get your poll fix at the start of next week. We will go in the field Monday night though in a couple of states so my questions are what states should we do and what match ups should we poll? At this point I want to focus on states where we can look at a Senate and/or Gubernatorial race in addition to the Presidential contest. When we run out of states with other interesting contests we'll start doing President only polls.
So tell us what states you want to see a poll in and what we should be looking at within those states...and have a Happy Thanksgiving!
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Indiana. Interesting to see how Obama is doing, some Lugar numbers would be interesting, as well as Bayh/Pence numbers for Gov. Oh, and Daniels' level of support for a Pres. run.
Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri would be my choices.
Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District
Joe Sestak v. Pat Meehan
Pennsylvania Democratic Senate Primary
Joe Sestak v. Bob Casey
Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary
Joe Sestak v. Barack Obama
yes... I am a sestak fan. and believe it or not, sestak in the presidential primary has been mentioned before (remember reagan losing his gov. bid?)
Gary Johnson against Bingaman in New Mexico. It's a Presidential swing state which Bush won in '04 and Obama won in '08. But it has a safe feel for Democrats.
It's a place where Johnson has name recognition and is a credible opponent to a popular incumbent. If Johnson can compete in New Mexico then most of the Democratic slate is in danger of being wiped out in 2012. Has a sort of West Virginia dynamic going for it as a barometer for 2012.
Michigan -- Hoekstra or Bachmann vs. Stabenow
New Mexico -- Bingaman vs. Heather Wilson or Susana Martinez
Ohio -- Brown vs. Generic R, Ken Blackwell, Mike DeWine, etc.
How about more Southwest? Taking a look at Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico should be interesting.
- Can Obama win Arizona with no "native son" on the ballot?
- Did Harry Reid's stunning Senate win alongside minimal Dem losses downballot show that Nevada is still trending Democratic?
- Does Obama have reason to be concerned about New Mexico?
- And do this month's election results provide any hints as to which way Colorado will swing in 2012?
Minnesota:
Klobuchar vs. Pawlenty, Coleman, Bachmann, Emmer
Ohio:
Brown vs. Jim Jordan, Steve LaTourette
Michigan:
Stabenow vs. Engler, Hoekstra, Terri Lynn Land
Missouri:
McCaskill vs. Talent
Nixon vs. Peter Kinder, Ron Richard
West Virginia:
Manchin vs. Capito, Ireland
Tomblin vs. Capito, Ireland
Pennsylvania:
Casey vs Ridge, Santorum
Wisconsin:
Kohl generic re-elect
Feingold vs. Paul Ryan
Washington:
Cantwell vs. Reichert, Rossi, McMorris-Rodgers
Gregoire vs. McKenna, Rossi
Kentucky. It's the only election in 2011 with an incumbent Democrat Governor. In light of Rand Paul's recent double digit victory, how much depth does the Tea Party movement have going forward? There are two announced Republican tickets: businessman/state representative Moffett/Harmon and Senate President/Ag Secretary Williams/Farmer. Do either of these tickets have what it takes to come out victorious? Or should Republicans look for other alternatives in the primary, such as former U.S. Ambassador Cathy Bailey, who's rumored to be considering entering the field.
When are the Capito vs Manchin numbers coming out?
This may sound weird, but how about Rhode Island. Could Sheldon Whitehouse be vulenable to Gov. Carcieri?
Other suggestions:
Scott Brown in Massachsuetts (I dont know any Dem Opp.)
Hawaii - Akaka and Case vs. Lingle
North Dakota - Conrad vs any potential R
Maryland - With the era of Ehrlich gone.. How about Cardin vs. Mary Kane or Harford County Executive David Craig. Craig has been a Mayor, Senator, Delegate, and is President of the Maryland Asso. of County Executives..
A few states that may have competitive gov and sen races:
WV-
Also poll on whether voters want a 2011 or 2012 gov election, Tomblin and Tennant as D's against Capito and Sen. Clark Barnes, who has announced his run
Also test Manchin vs Capito for the Senate race
MO-
Nixon vs Kinder and Steelman
McCaskill vs Talent, Steelman, and Kinder
VT-
One of the most underpolled states of 2010. 2012 gov, Shumlin vs Auditor Tom Salmon, also potential senate matchups with Sanders vs Douglas, and maybe even a 3 way, if a Dem decided to challenge Sanders
WA-
Gregoire and Inslee vs McKenna
Cantwell vs Reichert and McMorris-Rodgers
Or, maybe one of the 2011 races. Ya'll haven't polled MS or LA in awhile. Could Childers or Taylor make it competitive in MS? In LA, now that Jindal's oil spill glow has worn off, is he still a lock to win re-election? Test him against Caroline Fayard, who beat expectations in the Lt. Gov race and is the whole Dem bench in LA. Also, test the Dems last remaining statewide offices in these states, the AG's, to see if these states are done with Dems altogether, or if they are willing to keep the kind that sues the Obama admin over HCR.
New Jersey: Menendez vs. Lou Dobbs, Tom Kean Jr.
(Would be interesting to match up Christie vs. Obama there in addition to the regular match-ups.)
I'd like to see how Amy Klobuchar would do against Michele Bachmann in Minnesota.
I gotta be a homer and say New Jersey:
Menendez vs. Guadagno
Menendez vs. Kean, Jr.
Menendez vs. Lou Dobbs
What makes people think Joe Manchin is not going to run again for Senate? I don't get it. Why would he have gone through with this campaign only to quit 2 years later?
Minnesota:
SEN - Klobuchar v. Pawlenty; v. Bachmann
Indiana:
GOV - (D) Bayh, Baron Hill,
GOV - (R) Pence, Todd Rokita, Becky Skillman
GOV General - test all match-ups
Washington:
SEN - Cantwell v. Reichert; v. McMorris-Rodgers
GOV - (D) Gregoire, Inslee
GOV - (R) McMorris-Rodgers, Reichert, McKenna, Rossi
GOV General - test all match-ups
Potential Dem opponents v. Scott Brown
Potential GOP opponents v. McCaskill
Potential GOP opponents v. Sherrod Brown
Pontential GOP opponents v. Bob Casey
Obama AZ #'s/Kyl matchups
@Anonymous 5:15
Manchin is up for re-election in 2012, so all of those suggestions are for Manchin re-election numbers. No one suggested he would leave the senate.
Ohio Sen- Sherrod Brown vs. Mary Taylor, Jim Jordan, Ken Blackwell, Mike Dewine.
Missouri Sen-Claire Mckaskill vs. Talent/Sarah Steelman. Gov- Nixon vs. Kinder.
North Dakota Sen-Conrad vs. Drew Wrigley, Wayne Stenehjem.
Nebraska- Ben Nelson vs. Jon Bruning.
Michigan-Debbie Stabenow vs. Pete Hoekstra, Terri Land
Missouri should provide some very interesting numbers. Big Senate race, likely a competitive Gubernatorial, and of course President.
New Jersey's another good one: Menendez looked vulnerable a year ago so it's worth seeing how he's doing now, and the state's feelings toward Christie and Obama.
Wisconsin Presidential and possible Senate match ups. Rumor is Kohl may retire.
Nebraska -
Bruning vs Stenberg for R primary.
Vs Nelson for General
NE-Sen
MA-Sen
NV-Sen
Poll Missouri:
Claire McCaskill vs Sarah Steelman
Claire McCaskill vs Pete Kinder
Claire McCaskill vs Vicky Hartzler
Claire McCaskill vs Jim Talent
Jay Nixon vs Pete Kinder
Obama vs the usual Republicans
Poll Nebraska:
Ben Nelson vs Jon Bruning
Ben Nelson vs Jeff Fortenberry
Obama vs the usual Republicans (maybe by CD, since that's how Nebraska does it)
Poll Massachusetts
Too many Democrats to name vs Scott Brown
VT
it's too early for any polling on shumlin. Bernie on the other hand...
Bernie Sanders VS Jim Douglas
VS Brian Dubie
VS Tom Salmon (R)
VS Randy Brock.
Presidential primary Howard Dean VS Obama.
1. Ohio- Brown versus Jordan, DeWine, Latourette, M Taylor
2. Missouri- McCaskill vs. Talent, Steelmann, Akin
3.Nevada- Berekley/Miller vs. Ensign, Angle, Heller
I second all those who proposed Missouri. It'd be great both because of the Senate race and because of the Gov race. Also, some potential challengers to McCaskill (Talent, Steelman) are well-known enough that the poll would be meaningful.
Same in Massachusetts. People like Capuano, Patrick have enough statewide name recognition for the poll to be valuable.
And I'd love to see a poll of Sherrod Brown's chances in Ohio. (Rep. Jordan looks like he'll run.)
Another vote for Arizona, at the Senate and Presidential levels. I'm particularly interested in the presidential levels because of what we saw in the demographics for 2010.
John McCain won Arizona by about 8.5%. He lost the Hispanic vote 44-56. This year, McCain lost the Hispanic vote by 22-78. He went from losing the Hispanic vote by 12 to losing the Hispanic vote by 56, a 44-point swing. Hispanics made up 14% of the Arizona electorate in 2010.
A 44 point swing among 14% of the electorate is worth 6.16% of the total vote. Therefore, if McCain's 'favorite son' advantage was worth 2.34% or more, a non-Arizonan Republican would lose the presidential race. It would be very interesting to see how President Obama does in a hypothetical matchup against the other named Republican candidates thus far.
Similarly, it would be interesting to see how Kyl does. He won 53-44 in 2006, taking home over 40% of the Hispanic vote. If he were to see a matching swing among Hispanic voters as McCain did, Kyl would be in for a real nailbiter.
It's not state-specific, but another thing I'd like to see asked would be what happens if one of the Big Four Republicans (Palin, Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich) opts out of running. My guess is that Palin's support would trend toward Huckabee, Huckabee's would trend toward Gingrich, Romney's would trend toward Gingrich, and Gingrich's would split between Huckabee and Romney. But that's highly speculative.
I like the suggestions already made, but what about Texas and Arizona, both for the Senate races and for the presidential race, and Tennessee, at least for the Senate race? Also, what about Georgia for the presidential race? I can't imagine anyone else will be polling them. It's certainly harder for the Senate races, because it's not at all clear whom the Democrats will nominate, but it'd still be interesting to see how the incumbents do against a generic Democrat.
You should come to New York City. Maybe you can try and run into Charlie Rangel. If you need any help let me know.
We can't poll Indiana or North Dakota. Nor are we going to do congressional districts. Or Obama primary opponents.
"Michigan -- Hoekstra or Bachmann vs. Stabenow"
I'm sure you just made a goof, because Bachmann's from MN, not MI.
Why can't you poll Indiana? Obama won it in 2008 but seems like he'd be unlikely to win it again in 2012, and there's a Senate race in the offing with Lugar. I'd still rather see Arizona, but Indiana doesn't seem like a bad option on the face of it.
Missouri, Arizona, and Minnesota all sound like great states.
Indiana requires automated polling to at least be introduced by a live interviewer, which adds considerable additional expense. Since our public polling is pro bono, and no one's paying us to do it, we dip into our profits to be able to provide it for you all.
Ah, that makes sense. That's an annoying requirement to us freeloaders, then. Boo, Indiana! ;-)
Good for poll:
NE-Sen:
Ben Nelson - Dave Heineman
Ben Nelson - David Karnes
Ben Nelson - Jon Christensen
Ben Nelson - Lee Terry
Ben Nelson - Jon Bruning
Ben Nelson - Shane Osborn
ND-Sen:
Kent Conrad - Ed Schafer
Kent Conrad - Jack Dalrymple
Kent Conrad - Rick Berg
ND-Gov:
Jack Dalrymple - Byron Dorgan
Jack Dalrymple - Earl Pomeroy
(Sorry if you can not).
MO-Sen:
Claire McCaskill - John Ashcroft
Claire McCaskill - Jim Talent
MO-Gov:
Jay Nixon - John Ashcroft
Jay Nixon - Jim Talent
Jay Nixon - Matt Blunt
Jay Nixon - Sam Graves
Jay Nixon - Kenny Hulshof
OH-Sen:
Sherrod Brown - Mike DeWine
Sherrod Brown - Mike Oxley
Sherrod Brown - Steve LaTourette
Sherrod Brown - Pat Tiberi
Sherrod Brown - Jim Jordan
WI-Sen:
Herb Kohl - Paul Ryan
Herb Kohl - Jim Sensenbrenner
Russ Feingold - Paul Ryan
Russ Feingold - Jim Sensenbrenner
Ron Kind - Paul Ryan
Ron Kind - Jim Sensenbrenner
Tammy Baldwin - Paul Ryan
Tammy Baldwin - Jim Sensenbrenner
A few weeks ago, ya'll mentioned on the front page that ya'll did a Manchin-Capito poll in the last WV poll. When will this be out?
Please poll Chris Christie against Obama in New Jersey. If the numbers prove to be bad for Obama, it would suggest Obama would indeed have a problem against a well-known Republican figure in some blue states
Massachusetts Senate--can Dems pick up Brown's seat especially poll Brown vs. Barney Frank, since Frank may be interested.
Wisconsin Senate--Kohl vs. whoever and if Kohl retires see how Feingold might do. Also the presidential race in WI should be polled. WI went GOP big time in mid term--want to see how Obama does.
Also it might be interesting to see how Obama does vs. hypothetical dem in a democratic primary in WI--since WI is usually a key state in a Dem primary.
"I'm sure you just made a goof, because Bachmann's from MN, not MI."
Ah, yes. Thank you. But Bachmann is such a loose cannon you never know. Might as well poll her in Michigan.
"Ah, yes. Thank you. But Bachmann is such a loose cannon you never know. Might as well poll her in Michigan."
Can we poll her on Mars? I'd rather she run there.
Poll Sherrod Brown and Debbie Stabenow against potential GOP challengers.
I think the OH & MI Senate elections will be interesting ones.
Conduct a poll on Kent Conrad vs. potential ND Republican challengers considering that he represents a red state and that he could be in trouble due to his pro-Obama votes.
Top picks definitely should be Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, and Florida. Colorado has no Sen or Gov race, but I think it's going to be the firewall for Obama's reelection, along with New Hampshire. Obama can lose OH, FL, VA, IN, and NC and still win if he carries Colorado and New Hampshire (in addition to states he won by larger margins). If he loses Colorado, he's probably lost the states that were closer and therefore the election.
MISSOURI - McCaskill is going to be vulnerable, but would make a good bellweather for the 2006 Senate class (McCaskill's race in MO is probably a good average of Tester in MT and Webb in VA). Gov. Nixon should be in good shape for reelection, especially compared to McCaskill. It was the closest state in the 2008 presidential race, so it would be interesting to see how much things have changed for Obama since then.
INDIANA - Lugar is going to get teabagged; why not be the first pollster to call it? You could do the same in Maine, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah! Half the Republicans in Class 1 will get teabagged out of their primaries. Gov race should be interesting, as would seeing how poorly Obama does now compared to 2008. Can't see Daniels winning the tea-fueled GOP Sen primary either, so test multiple people.
OHIO - Sen Brown is a solid progressive in a swing state and will be very vulnerable. Ohio would be THE best gauge of Obama's reelection chances.
FLORIDA - Nelson will be a huge target, and Florida is a critical state in presidential races.
Dustin, are you seeing the question about Capito-Manchin? Will this poll ever be released? Its been almost a month!
I highly suggest conducting senatorial election polling in key battleground states such as Michigan, Ohio, and North Dakota due to the incumbents winning by large margins in 2006 and because those were states in which Republicans scored victories in the 2010 midterm elections.
I'd REALLY LOVE to see Ohio Obama match-ups polled.
After the tanking that happened for Democrats here, can Obama at least pull out a tie or better?
MA-SEN
Brown vs. a long list of dems
New Mexico: Gary Johnson vs. Jeff Bingaman. Johnson has awkwardly been extremely politically active as of late, and I doubt he's running for President, so that scenario seems more likely.
Texas - With Kay Bailey retiring, do the Dems have a shot here? Bill White? There have also been whispers Debra Medina, failed Gubernatorial candidate, will give this one a shot. Good state for GOP nomination as well.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/45560.html
Announced candidate to battle Senator Casey in Pennsylvania.
NM
Wilson vs Binghman
MO
McCaskill vs Talent, Steelman, Kinder
WI
Feingold vs Ryan
MI
Candice Miller vs Stabenow
FL
Ben Nelson vs Congressman Mac, Jeb
ND
Conrad vs Stenehjem
Second choice polling on the 2012 GOP hopefuls would be very revealing. It helps gauge who is drawing from whom.
As for suggestions of states, I think any state that has a vulnerable major candidate in 2012 will do. Ben Nelson in Nebraska comes to mind, along with Snowne in Maine.
There are also a small number of states that have state elections in odd-numbered years. The LA Governorship is up next year.
How about the ones that are red & swing states with Dem senators such as North Dakota (which hasn't been polled lately), Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania? With the 2012 election campaigns on the horizon it seems quite reasonable.
It would be interesting to see the generic ballot question being broken down into more specific categories. For example, have a question like "Considering only Social Issues like Abortion, Gay Marriage, etc., which party best represents your views" and ask those kind of questions for other things like the economy or foreign policy.
We're knee-deep in generic ballot polls, but very few people have looked into which particular issues boost a party up and which issues pull a party down with the general public.
Virginia governor 2013
Tom Perriello and Terry McAuliffe
If people are already complaining about polling 2012, it's waaay too early to be thinking about 2013.
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