Unfortunately we're not going to have any more fresh polling before the end of the year...Christmas weekend would not have been the best time to call and interview people...but we will go into the field a week from today with our first pair of polls for 2011.
One of them is definitely going to be a Nevada poll so suggestions on who to poll against John Ensign for both the primary and general elections would be much appreciated. Any other good question ideas for Nevada would be appreciated as well.
As for our second poll we're open to pretty much anything. So give us your suggestions in the comments and we'll pick some finalists and put it to a vote starting Wednesday.
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36 comments:
I'd poll Pennsylvania or New Mexico to see how Casey and Bingaman are doing.
Montana and Virginia are two states I find to be really interesting. MT is probably the most likely to switch to the Dems (tied with maybe AZ and MO), and Virginia seemed to be getting bluer very quickly, but with McDonnell's landslide over Deeds, that trend may have reversed in the GOP's favour.
How about a KY gov 2011 primary between davi williams an phil moffett an then a general with both vs steve beshear
Ensign in primary ideas:
Rep. Dean Heller Vs. Ensign
Sharron Angle Vs. Ensign
John Chachas Vs. Ensign
Lt. Gov Krolicki Vs. Ensign
Also ask would voters accept even a small tax increases as a way to balance the huge budget hole?
Would voters accept a state lottery to balance the budget?
CT Sen: with all the joe-mutations.
If the blizzard doesn't prevent you from polling New Jersey that would be a cool state to do. Menendez may be vulnerable so it'll be good to test his reelection. Also a look at how well Christie's holding up will be good, plus the Presidential numbers here: the GOP often tries to target New Jersey so it's worth seeing if they have an opening. And since the state has legislative elections in 2011 a generic legislative ballot would be fun.
If the weather doesn't permit polling New Jersey then Mississippi would good to look at for their gubernatorial election.
Anonymous,
They already polled Montana and even PPP conceded that obama was losing to all the republicans (and there were a lot more undecided Republicans than undecided Democrats left in the matchups).
Definitely Connecticut, test Joe as an Independent in a three-way, as a Democrat in a two way, as a Republican in a two-way, and then without Joe at all between a Dem and a GOPer. Might be good to test with and without Joe in a Dem and GOP primary, against Bysiewicz, Murphy, and Courtney, and against McMahon and Simmons.
I would like to see AZ polled. It was almost competitive in 2008, and that was w/ McCain's home state advantage. I have a feeling it might be competitive in 2012, especially in an Obama v. Palin matchup. My instinct is that Obama trails Romney and Huckabee any to a slightly lesser extent Gingrich, but with Palin it is a tossup or leaning r at the most. Also like to see if the Kyl race is at all competitive. After az, Nj is my next pick
Since Romney won the Nevada caucus in 2008, I would like to know what the voters think of Romneycare?
Do they like the idea of a state mandate like the one in Romneycare rather than the federal mandate that is in Obamacare?
If they voted for Romney in 2008, did they know about Romneycare?
Who is their second choice?
Since you are doing Nevada, an Eastern state would be a good idea, New Jersey most definitely. Chris Christie in the mix, not in the mix. Following week, a deep Southern state would be nice so we can see how the Big 4 does against Obama, see if Romney does worse than Palin or Gingrich against Obama there.
Rhode Island - Republican Donald Carcieri hints at running against Whitehouse. Could also throw in John Robitaille.
Vermont - Test Bernie Sanders against outgoing GOP Gov Jim Douglas, outgoing GOP Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, or GOP State Auditor Tom Salmon.
Maryland - Dem Sen. Ben Cardin against: 2010 nominee GOP for Lt. Gov Mary Kane, 2010 GOP Sen nominee Eric Wargotz, Harford Co. Executive Dave Craig.
Any poll is good, and suggestions above are good too!
Poll NJ and do Menendez vs Christie/Kean/Guadagno and Test Obama vs Christie Presidential
Google John Chachas. Jon Ralston of the Las Vegas Sun mentioned him in the Republican primary.
Guess the main Dems are Ross Miller or Shelley Berkeley?
In the NV GOP primary, poll Ensign vs. Heller, Krolicki, Chachas, & Angle.
In the NV general election, poll Ensign vs. Shelley Berkely, Dina Titus, Catherine Cortez Masto, & Ross Miller.
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For the other poll, conduct one on the Pennsylvanian senatorial election with Bob Casey vs. Marc Scaringi, Charlie Dent, Jim Gerlach, Tim Murphy, etc.
I would like to see either Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Jersey or New Mexico polled.
poll ensign against the usual republicans (heller, angle, krolicki,) and then against the usual dems (berkeley, goodman, masto, titus, miller)
and thenn poll in maine to see how olympia snowe holds up against scott daimboise in the gop primary and then against scarcelli, michaud and mills in the maine senate election.
Ensing vs. John Chachas
Ensign vs. Dean Heller
Ensign vs. Sharron Angle
Ensign vs. BRian Krolicki
and then:
Ensign vs. Berkely
Ensign vs. Goodman
Ensign vs. Titus
As for the other poll, what about polling Olympia Snowe against some Republican challengers in a Republican primary poll and then against some Democratic challengers? I think she could be in political danger.
Republican primary:
- John Ensign vs. Sharron Angle
- John Ensign vs. John Chachas
- John Ensign vs. Dean Heller
General election:
- Ensign/Angle/Chachas/Heller vs. Shelley Berkely
- Ensign/Angle/Chachas/Heller vs. Catherine Cortez-Masto
- Ensign/Angle/Chachas/Heller vs. Dina Titus
In the other poll, conduct one with Jon Kyl vs. Gabrielle Giffords/Ann Kirkpatrick/Harry Mitchell.
John Ensign Vs Dean Heller and Sharron Angle in the primary and then John Ensign Vs Dina Titus, Ross Miller, Shelly Berkly, & Oscar Goodman in the general election.
After the GOP sweep in Pennsylvania see if Bob Casey Jr. is vulnerable to some local Republicans such as Mar Scaringi, who's announced his chaallenge, and also include Jake Corman, Charlie Dent, Jim Gerlach, & Tim Murphy in the Pennslyvanian senatorial general election polling.
A Quinnipiac University poll released a few weeks ago indicated that Casey could be vulnerable so polling there in Pennsylvania would be reasonable.
In Hawaii, look at Lingle vs Akaka/Case. Maybe fun to look at D Primary with Akaka/Case, rematch of 06'.
I really, really, really want a Nebraska poll. Two GOP sources have Benator down 14 points. Are they right? Put this rumor to rest or reinforce it!
Catherine Cortez-Masto
Shelley Berkley
Ross Miller
Against whoever the republican is.
Don't poll Titus because she will either run for Berkley's seat or the new congressional seat!
If you do Arizona, make sure to poll Giffords as a Democrat against Kyl or the other republicans.
Colorado. It's certainly the most important state for Obama in 2012.
I'd like to see AZ, CO, or ME polled.
It'll be interesting to see if Obama is vulnerable to a GOP challenger in CO even after Bennett's victory.
Obama will target AZ in the general and Kyl is up for reelection.
In ME, everyone wants to know if Olympia Snowe can win a primary/general.
Nevada Primary:
Ensign vs. Heller/ Krolicki/ Tarkanian
Ensign vs. Gibbons (just for larks to see who's less popular)
General:
All Primary Contenders vs. Berkley, Cortez-Masto, Ross Miller, Kate Marshall.
Louisiana: Jindal vs. Fayard
Mississippi: Tuck/Bryant/Hosemann/Dennis (R) vs. DuPree/Gene Taylor (D).
Arizona, Nebraska, Pennsylvania would be my top picks for 2012 states.
Arizona. Presidential will be v interesting and Kyl against either Giffords or Janet Napolitano would also be an interesting race.
Do Arizona and sub a few Republicans in for Kyl, as rumor has it he's set to retire.
Jeff Flake is the only name I've heard on the Republicans' side should he step down. Just for the heck of it, Jan Brewer.
Nebraska for sure also Scott Brown.
Plain is not going to run. So, national Republican presidential primary poll WITHOUT Palin.
National metapoll. "How much trust do you have in polling organizations?" Then ask about PPP, Fox/Ras, and Gallup, perhaps, to get some information on which ones are more or less trusted. I rather suspect Fox would get a lot of Republican trust and little otherwise, Ras would draw primarily from Republicans, and Gallup would win overall on name recognition.
WV. Poll on whether voters want a 2012 or 2011 gov race, and is Manchin really vulnerable?
Gov/Sen mathcups:
Gov:
Tomblin (D) vs Capito (R)
Tomblin vs Barnes (R)
Tomblin vs Ireland (R)
Tennant (D) vs Capito
Tennant vs Barnes
Tennant vs Ireland
Sen:
Manchin vs Capito
Manchin vs Barnes
Manchin vs Ireland
May want to do some 2011. I suggest LA:
Jindal vs Fayard (D)
Jindal vs Edwin Edwards, just for the fun of it
Jindal vs Mary Landrieu- rumor down here is she's tired of DC and see's a free shot at the gov race. She also loathes Jindal.
Maryland: I'm just going to throw some Gop names out there that might be interesting against Senator Ben Cardin(D)...
* Former Governor Bob Ehrlich - Has said he won't run, but never know, like Jeb Bush.
* 2010 Rep nominee for Lt. Governor w/ Ehrlich(and former State Secretary of State) Mary Kane
* Charles Lollar - Ran against Steny Hoyer and Chair of the Charles County Republican Club
* State Delegates Rick Impallaria or Pat McDonugh
* Harford County Executive David Craig
* Anne Arundel County Executive John Lepold III
In your Nevada poll, ask if people think the new Governor (who takes office tomorrow) will be successful.
Sandoval ran against Harry Reid's son who could not over-come negative last name recognition; what do people think of him when not putting him against the Senator's Son or a very unpopular sitting Governor in the primary.
Just for fun: Will the Nevada Wolf Pack beat Boston College in Kraft Hunger Bowl?
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