Monday, December 13, 2010

Ohio Poll Preview

Voters in Ohio really aren't too fond of Barack Obama. His approval rating there is only 42%, with 49% of voters disapproving of him. Republicans dislike him (87% disapproval) a whole lot more than Democrats like him (71% approval). Independents are even more negative toward him than the population as a whole, with 54% of them disapproving of him and 40% approving.

Despite all that Obama leads all four of the leading Republicans for reelection in 2012 in Ohio in numbers we'll release tomorrow.

With his approval numbers where they are Obama shouldn't be winning in Ohio. Let's face it- the Republican front runners stink. The GOP's ability to beat Obama in 2012 probably hinges on someone emerging outside the Palin/Huckabee/Romney/Gingrich pack to win the nomination. If Obama's leading all those folks right now at a low point for his party and his Presidency, he'll probably destroy them in 2012 if the economy's seen any level of recovery. Americans know the top GOP folks- and they just don't like them. They're not real thrilled with Obama right now either but they think he's better than any of those folks.

Republicans need a fresh face to win in 2012- we'll see if one rises up.


Anonymous said...

I'd like to see you poll Obama v. McCain rematch - not because it's likely, but because it might give us a baseline for how Obama would fair against a somewhat more popular Republican.

Anonymous said...

Wasn't the fictional character of Music Man Henry Hill, based on the story of a con-man taking advantage of those Ohio folks.

Perhaps they like those Henry Hill types?

wt said...

When you say 42% of "voters" disapprove of Obama, do you mean adults, or registered voters? Who is falling into this sample at this early stage.

Steve said...

I hate to say this but Obama hasn't reached the bottom yet. Plus, I don't see any different Republican performing better than some of our frontrunners.

Bloomberg isn't that popular. Pawlenty's problem could take him out. Once the Democrat party hammers Chris Christie and others with negative campaign ads, they'll go down. Bottom line is Americans are fed up with all politicians.

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous: if we are going to poll against a more popular Republican to establish a baseline, Reagan would be better...

Marvin said...

My fear as someone who never wants to see another Republican President is someone other than these four making a name for themselves by 2012.

My dream scenario is Sarah Palin as the GOP nominee --- I think that would lead to not only a landslide Obama win at the Presidential level but also big wins for the Democrats in the House and (Senate - although there isn't much room for growth in 2012.)

Dustin Ingalls said...

"When you say 42% of "voters" disapprove of Obama, do you mean adults, or registered voters?"

Read the PDFs. It's registered voters. Though it's more tailored than that, since the sample, to start with, is always registered voters who've voted in at least one of the last three generals (not including 2010), and who sit through a 35- to 40-question survey, so they're pretty dedicated voters...or they just have a lot of time on their hands.

"I hate to say this but Obama hasn't reached the bottom yet."

No, the bottom would be about 29%, which is where Bush hovered for almost his whole second term after Katrina. It was basically the hardcore Republicans with their heads in the sand...and that's it.

wt said...

I will read the PDFs when they're posted on the site.

So it's registered voters who voted in at least 2000, 2004, or 2008? (You say generals but then say 2010 isn't included; but 2010 was a midterm, so I just want to make sure we're defining general the same way).

I've never been polled by PPP -- do the phone calls indicate it's going to be 35-40 questions from the beginning of the call? Is that around 20 minutes?

Thank you for ansering questions on methodology issues.

Steve said...

Studying the Demographics breakdown, Obama's overall approval could drop to around 35%. Mid 20s among White voters is about the lowest he can get.

Latino voters not getting DREAM Act or other legislation in their favor could drop their support into the 40s. I don't know what would get African Americans upset to take Obama's numbers below 80% whereas Bush could reach low single digits (reason why he dropped into the 20s)

He can still lose more Independent voters, but it will take a lot of trouble to lose his Moderate support. As for gender, if he starts to lose the female support, that could spell trouble, but I don't expect him to win the male vote in the 2012 election. That's pretty much lost.

Jonny V said...

Nothing's lost yet Steve.

If the economy has substantially recovered by 2012 and the GOP nominates Sarah Palin - Obama could win all kinds of subgroups that may seem unlikely right now. And he would likely win the overall election by a huge margin (15 to 20% points.)

Obama needs to get these things done in exchange for the tax deal:

1. START Treaty
2. DREAM Act
3. Repeal DADT

If he gets those then I think he will be forgiven rather quickly by the liberal base for giving in on extension of the Bush tax cuts.

Also this whole thing gives Obama and the Democrats a lot of ammunition against the Republicans. The GOP is blocking all kinds of popular legislation in favor of very unpopular tax cuts for the rich. They are on the wrong side of every issue right now. The Democrats should be able to do something with that in the 2012 elections.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"I will read the PDFs when they're posted on the site."

All of our polls since the election have been of registered voters, so calling them simply "voters" in this post isn't anything new.

"So it's registered voters who voted in at least 2000, 2004, or 2008?"

No, 2008, 2006, and 2004. It only doesn't include 2010 because the data on who voted isn't all available yet.

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