Tuesday, December 28, 2010

For Palin there's no place like home...in a bad way

It's a well known fact that Sarah Palin is the most unpopular major political figure in the country...one thing that may be less well known is that one of the states where voters have the dimmest view of her is her own home state of Alaska.

We've polled Palin's favorability in ten states over the last couple months. In Alaska just 33% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to 58% with a negative one. The only place where fewer voters see her positively than her own home state is dark blue Massachusetts.

Democrats hate Palin in Alaska but they hate her everywhere so there's nothing newsworthy about that. What makes her home state numbers unusually bad is that Republicans see her favorably by only a 60/30 margin. In most places she's closer to 80% favorability within her own party. Also while independents don't like her anywhere their level of animosity in Alaska is unusually large- 65% unfavorable to only 25% with a favorable opinion.

It's not a coincidence that the 35% of the vote Joe Miller appears to have received in the Alaska Senate race is almost identical to the 33% who have a favorable opinion of Palin. Miller allowed himself to practically become a surrogate for Palin and while that was good for letting him pull off a primary victory by the slimmest of margins it was not so good for his prospects in the general election.

Palin's unpopularity in Alaska is an interesting sidebar but ultimately pretty irrelevant to a possible 2012 Presidential bid. What's more relevant is that a majority of voters in every single state we have polled so far on the 2012 race has an unfavorable opinion of her. And her average favorability in the Bush/Obama states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia that are most likely essential to Republican chances of retaking the White House is 36/56. Democrats can only hope...

Here are Palin's state by state favorability numbers:

State

Favorability

Montana

44/50

Ohio

37/52

North Carolina

36/57

Florida

36/57

Virginia

35/58

Wisconsin

35/58

Minnesota

35/60

Michigan

34/60

Alaska

33/58

Massachusetts

27/68


39 comments:

Anonymous said...

Very interesting information. Thanks for sharing.

msspurlock said...

Does PPP get money either directly or indirectly from George Soros?

Anonymous said...

I blog about the immediate need for the Democrats to stop using Palin as ammo, since it could certainly backfire in 2012. Check it out: http://simonmthompson.wordpress.com/

TexasConservative said...

Mr. Jensen,

Could you please also post the fav/unfav chart for Gingrich, Huckabee and Romney?

potatoe said...

I do not doubt the accuracy here, I figger her totals are still higher than the current president......

Anonymous said...

MSM would be happy to see McCain run again.

Jamison Faught said...

I'd bet she has a positive approval rating in Oklahoma.

Anonymous said...

I work regularly in the Alaskan bush and I have been telling my friends back in the real world this for more than a year. Among Alaskans who live outside of the Anchorage area, of all parties, her favorability approaches zero. Her pretense to being a hunter and outdoorswoman is recognized as baloney. She's widely regarded as an embarrassment to the state, even among staunch Christian conservatives.

LILLIAN said...

Your polls are so biased. Who would ever believe you?
Not I.
But nice try....no cigar!

Anonymous said...

potatoe, I'm no big fan of Obama, but you are wrong on the approval of him.
Here is one. 46%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/145097/obama-approval-rating-holding-steady-midterm.aspx
Others have him as high as 52%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_favorableunfavorable-643.html
Sorry to burst your bubble.

Jonny V said...

you figger wrong "potatoe."

here's hoping a lot of "conservatives" (I use scare quotes because I don't think there's anything conservative about modern US conservatives - it's just another word for ignorant at this point) are delusional enough to think she has a chance of beating President Obama and vote for her in the GOP primaries.

Anonymous said...

Republicans are starting to strongly coalesce behind Huckabee. It's a very good idea for them to do so, not only because he can beat Obama in a debate and bring Conservatism to the White House, but also because we don't want to have a candidate who is all beat up from the primaries taking on Obama's $Billion+ dollars that he will have at his disposal.

Anonymous said...

You can't convince a fox viewer that the sky is blue, if fox says otherwise. Palin is hated by so many because they see her for the snake oil salesman she is, nothing more and almost nothing less. She is all about the money and will say anything you want to get it. It's been so funny to watch her new show, because it's obvious that she is a fake outdoorsman, just like a fake everything else. She disgusts me because she takes advantage of patriotic americans, who's only mistake was to think fox news is the only news outlet that will tell them the truth.

Anonymous said...

TYPICAL SOROS SHILL POSING AS A JOURNALIST

Sapwolf said...

Obama is at around 40% approval in Ohio.

If Sarah wins the GOP Primary, she'll beat Obama in Ohio, which is a prime battleground state.

The LSM does not want her to run because Axelrod is afraid of her. Reagan was polling the same before he decisively defeated Carter in '80.

If Sarah does not run, she'll probably endorse another common-sense constitutional conservative who is acceptable to the TPM and to socons.

What would be bad is if the GOP went with another moderate like Romney or a big-government guy like Huckabee. Both would easily be defeated by Obama once the LSM is redirected to attacking them.

Also, Sarah is not as popular in Alaska because she resigned and because she was the VP candidate.

If she wins the primary, Alaskans will vote for her over Obama because O wants to continue the locking up of gas, oil, minerals while Sarah wants to open it up get more energy domestically and to help Alaska.

The GOP Primary winner will be either Sarah, or whoever she endorses.

Sapwolf said...

There is no way in a head-to-head matchup of Sarah vs. Obama that Sarah loses Montana.

That's just silly talk.

She'll beat O in every state McCain won plus the 1 evote in Nebraska to.

Sarah will start with 180 electoral votes out of the gate.

She'll also get Indiana and North Carolina out of the gate.

The election will hinge on her winning Ohio (GOP swept all offices this past election), Virginia, and Florida (West or Rubio on the ticket).

Then she only needs one more state from the following: NV,NM,CO,IA,WI,NH

That's it. Once her campaign starts, numbers will change as they will for all the candidates as people see where they stand on the issues.

Unlike Obama, in the battleground states, Sarah is more aligned on the issues with the voters, and the GOP won the women's vote 49-48 this past November.

2012 will be the year Sarah or another Common-Sense Constitutional Conservative gets elected.

It will be 1980 all over again if the economy does not improve and we are STILL bogged down in Afghanistan. That war is the Bush/Obama War now.

Silvertooth said...

Oh,pshaw! How old IS this poll anyway, and how horribly biased can it be? Froth on, fools, you will see the truth shortly.

Anonymous said...

As a 25 year resident of Wasilla, AK. I can say it is no surprise that she has fooled so many on a national scale, having done the same here for many years. Anyone willing to pay attention would have noticed that, after her selection by John McCain, the silence from Alaska Republicans was deafening. Hardly any of them respected her competence as a leader, plus they were afraid of her. She is poisonous, through and through, and has been a dismal failure at the most important job any of us will ever have -- parenting.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Does PPP get money either directly or indirectly from George Soros?"

Indirectly? Well, I'm sure we've gotten money indirectly from George W. Bush if you trace it back to the federal reserve bank.

"I do not doubt the accuracy here, I figger her totals are still higher than the current president......"

You serious? She's by far less popular than Obama. He's more popular than most of the Republicans in most of these states, but especially Palin.

"There is no way in a head-to-head matchup of Sarah vs. Obama that Sarah loses Montana."

Who said she would? We have her beating him by 5 there, but that's the only place she's beating him. In Missouri, she's the only Republican who DOESN'T lead him.

"She'll also get Indiana and North Carolina out of the gate."

Down by 14 in NC. IN will not be a put-away state, but we can't poll it ourselves to confirm.

"The election will hinge on her winning Ohio (GOP swept all offices this past election), Virginia, and Florida (West or Rubio on the ticket)."

Down by 7 in OH, 11 in VA, and 14 in FL. Your case is not building. Also, you mean West or Rubio as Palin's running mate? That screams disaster in terms of experience (and in West's case, sanity).

"That's it."

You make it sound easy, but you've described an uphill battle.

"Once her campaign starts, numbers will change as they will for all the candidates as people see where they stand on the issues."

Everyone already knows who she is and where she stands. She's the most well-known non-incumbent presidential candidate since Hillary two years ago, but if she were the nominee, she'd be the best-known challenger this far out since probably Eisenhower.

"the GOP won the women's vote 49-48 this past November."

There is no question women will fall strongly to Obama, as they usually do toward Democrats. Palin actually often does worse with women both in the GOP and general electorate than do the other candidates, and better with men than women, which Republicans always do in the general, regardless of the candidate's gender. In your beloved OH, for instance, she's up 47-44 with men, but Obama's up 53-37 with women, who are more numerous than men. That more than explains his lead. Obama actually has similar leads with women against the other Republicans, but they lead by 8-11 with men, not 3.

Sapwolf, are you the new Christian Liberty/Herbie, making fantasy assertions without data to back it up?

"How old IS this poll anyway"

Except Alaska, all done since the election, so not old at all.

A real Alaskan said...

Most of us in Alaska can't stand Sarah.
I know her personally to the point where I can hug her on the street (and I have) but I still wouldn't vote for her. I know her to well.

I'm still amazed at how little the voters in the lower 48 actually know about her...yet they follow her blindly.
She's done good for herself so far, we in Alaska hope that she leaves it at that.

Rasmus said...

"(West or Rubio on the ticket)."

Please, please, please, run Palin-Allen West for President. You'd probably end up with zero electoral votes at that point as soon as the racist Deep South vote stays at home and throws these states to the Democratic column as well.

Anonymous said...

Interesting (and not surprising) that so many Alaskans have commented here and expressed strong opinions against Mistress Sarah, Self-Styled Queen of the Alaskan Wilderness. Anyone with a lick of common sense could see she is a populist fool lacking in anything approximating a brain. The Alaskans I know aren't fooled by idiocy and I'm sure many more Republicans there than have actually spoken out on it were relieved she resigned as governor.

She has hijacked what could've been a group that made a real difference in addressing tax inequities and stupid spending practices by the government (regardless of party) - the Tea Partiers - instead making them a party that attracts the lunatic fringe from the right, the gun nuts, the survivalists, the anti-Obamaists-for-no-reason, the birthers, the racists and other wackos. Any conservative with a brain is probably as nervous as a hooker in church (as liberals are) that somehow she may win the Republican nomination.

For the record, I'm an independent and a centrist, have no party loyalties and only support candidates that have an IQ over a 80.

Kylopod said...

@Sapwolf

>Reagan was polling the same before he decisively defeated Carter in '80.

What the hell are you talking about? Reagan never had unfavorables this high before reaching the presidency. There was a point when Americans were concerned about his age, but he was always well-liked by the public.

Anonymous said...

That's it neo-cons, blame the pollster, not the poll. Sarah Palin is an embarrassment not only to Alaska, but to the country as well.

Let's see her refudiate these numbers

margaret said...

God I love my home state of Florida! The most powerful swing state in the country. Even when they went Republican they managed to pick the better of the Bush brothers! But, it does not surprise me they do not care for Palin. For all it's various extremes it lands right in the middle!

Anonymous said...

For the clown who said the so called "mainstream media" would be happy if McCain ran again, think about this. Why do these outlets you refer to continually hammer Palin, thus decreasing her favorablility? Because as anyone of any political stripes knows, she would be the easiest GOP candidate for Obama to beat. So wouldn't they actually spend four years building her up, only to tear her down upon receiving the nomination? Mull that around your Limbaugh and Propagannity brainwashed noggin for awhile.

Anonymous said...

No one polled me and my friends. We would have raised it at least some. She is just too confident for most men to handle. Go, Sarah go. You do not have to be President to be a success. In fact, it appears being President is the way to not be sucessful.

Anonymous said...

Sapwolf, You insult us Buckeyes by assuming a GOP primary win for Palin results in our being stupid enough to vote for her in an election. You have seriously insulted the Great State of Ohio.

Anonymous said...

I agree with every Alaskan that has commented on here so far. I think you’d be hard pressed to find one that didn’t. I sure hope the populace in the 'lower 48' pays attention to the Alaskan sentiment. I too am a lifetime Alaskan, the last 27 years in Wasilla. I guarantee what you see her doing on TV is not how she has lived in Alaska; it is no more her lifestyle than it is Paris Hilton’s. That is fine when one is an actor/actress but she would have you believe this is truth. She sincerely believes that people buy into this act because along the way she invokes religion, patriotism, and family as if calling down mystical powers that will blind the onlookers to the truth and I guess some are. Taking all this into context what it illuminates is a lie. Now since she is lying to the public about her life in general one might ask why? Palin's interest is only in herself. She uses religion, patriotism, and family to further one goal, self-interest. But in contrast if any one of those things, god, country, or family stood in the way of her own self-interest they would be swept aside in a heartbeat and that is why Alaskan's don't like her, but more importantly don't trust her. Sarah used her position as mayor of Wasilla, among other things to keep her drug dealing son out of jail by threats and coercion, I was there I know. She used her power as Governor unapologetically, in similar ways for personal gain and self advancement. She has used issues with her children, at their expense for one reason, to further her own self-interest and then jokes about it on TV at her daughter’s expense “see Bristol there are plenty of fish in the sea”. If we are indeed concerned about the character of someone we put in power I sincerely hope that the star struck following she has wakes up. I would like to believe that the public is on a higher plain of intelligence but I am in no way assured.

Anonymous said...

I just love when all of these 'most misinformed' viewers from Fox News come on anywhere and start posting...too funny.

The key terms these days from them these days 'Soros'. It was ACORN and Unions, now Soros that can only offer pittance compared to the billionaire giving money to their Republicon crooks through the 'United States Chamber of Congress'.

It's no wonder they're known as the most 'misinformed' people in the country...Fox News viewers!

jamers46 said...

I cannot believe any sane person actually believes the cackle of bs Sarah Palin spews out.

I'm still an ardent Republican suporter, but i will not vote if shes nominated.

Anonymous said...

As a fifth-generation Alaskan, I find myself surrounded by people who wish that Palin was just a bad dream. She's a wackadoo, even by my right-wing standards, and the values of Alaskans tend to run more parallel with Huckabee, to be honest. (Well, except for the Alaskans who only look out for themselves, don't finish out their committments, do almost everything for personal gain and whine about the consequences of their decisions ALL OF THE TIME. Sarah has quite the merry albeit small band of followers up here.) That her popularity has nosedived does not surprise me...that Palin will challenge that as fact is almost certain. I can only hope I get the chance to tell Sarah Palin to her face exactly what I think of her, and why. Oh wait, she's never IN Alaska anymore, unless she's shooting a TV episode. Silly me.

Article Dude said...

As for Palin - it doesn't matter what they say as long as they spell your name right...

Anonymous said...

Pallin is an embarrassment to look at and to ear from.
To believe that she knows politics is ludicrous.
She could not even contained her teenage girl to have a kid.
Looking at the Americans that like Pallin to become the President of the US, show us Canadians that your heads are screwed on backwards.
The President Obama is the best thing that happened to the Americans for a big while.
He and his team are taking care of the poor people.
Bush left a big mess to deal with.
From where I am, in Quebec, we admired your President. We wish ours was as good as yours, but that is not the case.
Best wishes for the Holidays!

George Law said...

I was born in Anchorage and lived in Fairbanks through my second year of college. My grandfather walked from Valdez to Fairbanks in the winter of 1902 and lived there for 60 years.Sarah Palin sickens me with her use of office for her financial gain. She is dumb as a box of rocks and has been repeating the mantra (Cliff Notes)that someone wrote for her in 2008.Although my mother was born in Fairbanks in 1910 and lived there for 52 years, she never engaged in any winter sports, dog sledding, river boating of any of the other activites Sarah claims she does in her new show. My mother was the norm rather than the exception. I never knew anyone, men or women, who engaged in all the outdoor activities sarah claims are everyday occurrences in her life. I never operated a snow mobile or went skiing until I moved to Oregon. Sure you can do those things in Alaska, but at minus 50 degrees plus it is just to damn cold. I had a few friends who have their own planes but they never go out and shoot wildlife from them. I would speculate that sarah's only charge into the outdoors was with a Visa card at Macey's or Nordstroms--preferably a card on someone else's account. e.g. The GOP. Sarah's depiction of life in Alaska is a myth, a facade, a deliberate misrepresentation calculated to make her appear to be interesting and vital. She is neither. She had the good fortune to be given a pretty face. Unfortunately she felt that was all that was needed. Even though she has been told many times that she has to get her face out of the camera and into some books, magazines and newspapers, she has not heeded that vital advice and therefore comes across as an uneducated cretin to those who actually know the issues and educate themselves if they don't.

Anonymous said...

Amazingly Ted Stevens grew up in the same neighborhood as my dad. His people were from the same place.

Hmm.

It wasn't Alaska, but it was an area where a whole big bunch of folks lived who could stand that 50 below stuff.

As it turns out I have some fairly close cousins working for Sarah and working against her.

Last thing I'd do when it comes to a family dispute is claim Oregon as some sort of source of wisdom or experience.

Good grief.

So sick.

Anonymous said...

RON PAUL

Anonymous said...

Sapwolf......Independents in Ohio will go 80-20 for any Democrat over Palin.

That's why Rpve is actively knocking her out.

Dream on.

"Common Sense Conservative", MY FOOT.

The woman is a moronic LOON.

And her own party, AND HER OWN STATE, knows it!

She polls 33% approval in Alaska !

'Nuff Said !

Keep drinking out of hannity's bowl.

Anonymous said...

George Law, I love you.

Jay Diamond

 
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