Mitt Romney is no longer a popular figure in Massachusetts and Barack Obama wouldn't have too much trouble winning the state for reelection even if he had to face a home town nominee.
51% of Massachusetts voters have an unfavorable opinion of Romney to only 40% who view him favorably. Republicans like him for the most part (a 75/14 favorability) and independents narrowly do so as well (50/44). But for a Republican to be popular in a deep blue state requires a lot of appeal to Democrats and that Romney has little of, with only 16% seeing him positively to 76% with an unfavorable opinion. Romney is no Scott Brown as far as appeal across party lines goes.
Obama on the other hand retains a healthy level of popularity in Massachusetts, with 55% of voters approving of his job performance and 40% disapproving. Obama leads Romney 52-43 in a hypothetical match up. While that's certainly closer than Massachusetts usually is at the Presidential level that's still a pretty weak performance for Romney at a time when Obama is at one of the lower points of his administration. Romney has the Republicans locked up. However he leads by only 11 with independents, when Brown showed you need to win them by about 30, and he gets only 15% of Democrats, when Brown showed you need to get at least around 20%. At this point it doesn't look like Romney would be a serious threat to Obama.
He'd certainly be better off than the rest of the possible Republican contenders though. Massachusetts voters have an extremely dim view of the other leading candidates. Mike Huckabee's favorability is a -19 spread (29/48), Newt Gingrich's is -31 (27/58), and Sarah Palin's is -41 (27/68). Given those numbers it's no surprise Obama trounces the rest of the field in hypothetical contests. He leads Gingrich and Huckabee by identical 57-33 margins. That 24 spread is similar to what he won in the state in 2012. Against Palin that advantage extends to 29 points at 61-32, an even more lopsided showing than Obama received against John McCain.
If Scott Brown runs for President some day maybe Massachusetts will be competitive again at the Presidential level, but it sure doesn't look like it will be in 2012.
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