We're going to do Michigan and Minnesota for our 2012 Senate/President polls this weekend. Michigan honestly because I'm dying to see a postseason refresh on the Rich Rodriguez numbers we got in May (I grew up in Ann Arbor) and Minnesota because I want to do some polling on the recount and see if Tim Pawlenty's bad week had any effect on his numbers in the state.
So 2 questions:
1) Who should we test against Debbie Stabenow and Amy Klobuchar?
2) Any questions we should ask besides the President and Senate stuff and what I mentioned above?
Thanks as always for the suggestions...
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Bachmann and Pawlenty
Can you poll a Franken/Coleman rematch. One unlikely opponent for Klobuchar would be Pawlenty or Paulson or possibly the guy who defeated Oberstarr. For Stabenow you can do Dick Devos, Dick Posthumus, Pete Hoekstra, Mike Coxx, Bouchard, Candice Miller, Fred Upton, Tim Walberg or even a rematch with Spencer Abraham.
A lot of talk about Michele Bachmann versus Klobuchar in 2012, so that would be interesting. I also think that Pawlenty might look in that direction if his presidential bid peters out early on.
Potential Klobuchar challengers to test:
Michele Bachmann
Tim Pawlenty
Laura Brod (good generic republican)
Ask an auto bailout question in Michigan.
Franken/Coleman polling seems far too premature...
RE: MN - Bachmann and former Rep. Marty Seifert
For Stabenow: Hoekstra, Terri Lynn Land, Candice Miller, and Thad McCotter.
For Kloubuchar: Pawlenty, Seifert, Emmer, and Bachmann.
Also for MN don't forget to add in an I (maybe use Tom Horner as a placeholder). Elections in MN are almost always 3-way races.
Minnesota:
Klobuchar vs. Pawlenty, Coleman, Bachmann, Emmer
Michigan:
Stabenow vs. Engler, Hoekstra, Terri Lynn Land
In MI, poll Pete Hoekstra, Terri Lynn Land, Thaddeus McCotter, Mike Cox.
In MN, poll Pawlenty, Emmer, Seifert, Bachmann.
Former MN House Minority Leader Marty Seifert will poll well against Klobuchar.
Marty Seifert has already said he is NOT running for Senator (MN). Bachmann and Laura Brod are good choices though.
Klobushar vs. Tom Barnard at KQRS.
1) In the Michiganite senatorial election, poll Stabenow against John Engler, Terry Lynn Land, Mike Rogers, & Pete Hoekstra.
2) In the Minnesotan senatorial election, poll Klobachar against Bachmann, Carol Molnau, & John Kline.
Potential opponents for Klobuchar:
John Kline
Pawlenty
Norm Coleman
What's-her-name from the 6th District
In Michigan, add in Schuette -- a former Congressman, who ran for Senate a while ago, and has been clawing his way back up the political ladder ever since. I doubt he'll be satisfied with Attorney General, and this is a "free shot".
I think the sitting Congressmen are unlikely, given the complete Republican control of redistricting. They could have run earlier, and the reasons to stay put just got stronger. That said, they can't be ruled out, and may be good proxies for a Republican best-case recruit.
Land/Hoekstra/Cox are more likely to actually be that best-case recruit.
Abraham might be a good way to gauge how angry voters are with Democrats in general, though I doubt he'll actually run.
Engler may be interesting on his own, but the numbers would change a lot if he said he were actually running.
For Minnesota, I would go with some lower profile names. Klobuchar is pretty popular and it's a presidential year in a fairly blue state, so that's likely to deter GOP House members, especially now that they have the majority. I doubt Pawlenty will run but I suppose he's the biggest dog in the park right now.
For Michigan, I would go with the higher profile names, including congressmen. Stabenow is very unpopular, and Michigan is becoming less and less blue due to the economy, so it's likely to be contested more than MN at the presidential level. Still a big risk for GOP congressmen to give up a spot in the House majority for a 50/50 shot at best in a Senate race. Joe Schwartz might be a good choice.
Bachmann is probably a terrible choice to poll. She is going to have a lot of influence in the tea-stained GOP House. Still, it would be interesting to see whether Klobuchar leads her by merely 20 or closer to 30. Emmer would probably be a good choice, since he's built up a statewide profile and will not be governor.
Tim Leuliette may be a good generic R for Michigan; per http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/12/starting-lineup-64.php he is actively considering a run.
Ask about votes on DREAM act and DADT in the state.
Is there going to be a "Should Emmer conceed?" or a related question in Minnesota?
Minn: Bachmann, Pawlenty, Coleman
Mich: McCotter, Justin Amash (a bit of an unknown)
Question: Tax cut extension or Afghanistan withdrawal
I'd like to know how many people in Minnesota have heard or been paying attention to the revelation about Pawlenty granting a full pardon to a convicted child molester whose wife wanted to run a childcare center, but that one would be really, really hard to ask without turning into an attack poll. I guess it could be "Have you heard any news about a pardon issued by Governor Pawlenty lately?" but that's almost too wishy-washy to be informative.
For Michigan, it would be interesting to know how much credit people give the federal government for saving the auto industry.
Opponents for Stabenow:
-Peter Hoekestra
-Mike Cox
-Terri Land
Opponents for Klobuchar:
-Tom Emmer
-Tim Pawlenty
-Eric Paulsen
-Chip Cravaack
For Klobuchar oppo's I would suggest:
Bachmann
Seifert
Brod
I agree, it is good moment for ask if Emmer should concede, and I would add some question about the obstructionism of the republicans from Minnesota (Emmer 2010, Coleman 2008).
I would like see:
Stabenow vs Engler
Stabenow vs Snyder
Stabenow vs Miller
Klobuchar vs Pawlenty
Klobuchar vs Coleman
Klobuchar vs Paulsen
Klobuchar vs Kline
For MN, John Kline has been interested in higher office, and he's getting up in his 60s, so 2012 might be his last chance. Paulsen is the strongest, but he might want to wait for the more promising 2014 race. Bachmann is a must poll.
In MI, Congresspeople Mike Rogers and Candice Miller, who is also a former 2 term statewide elected official, along with SoS Terri Lynn Land, and Pete Hoekstra.
For MN, ask whether they think Emmer has a chance of legitimate victory
As someone mentioned already, make sure to include an IP option in the Minnesota poll. They're inevitably going to get 10% of the vote or so.
MI
Candice Miller
Congressman Rogers
Terri Lynn Land
Hoekstra
MN
Emmer
Try polling RichRod as an incumbent running for reelection - Who would you like to see leading the Michigan football program next year? 1) RichRod, 2) Harbaugh, 3) Miles, 4) Hoke (?), 5) Tenuta (6), etc.
Opponents for Klobachar you should poll
Vin Webber
Marty Siefert
Annette Meeks
Brian Sullivan
Jim Ramstad
Oppenents you shouldn't bother polling and why.
Pawlenty (seeking a bigger prize)
John Kline (big committee chair now. Most powerful pol in state)
Bachman (she's happy where she's at. She can be beat state wide but never in the 6th. She doesn't need the Senate to have a national profile.)
For Michigan,
For Senate, GOP candidates should be Engler, Cox, Hoekstra, and Land. DeVos and Posthumus are both done running for anything. Abraham is interesting but unlikely.
Other questions
1) approval of auto bailout
2) sulfide mining (a big issue in next legislature)
3) whether Snyder should reach across the aisle and work with Dems.
Would be interesting as a point of comparison on your question about Rich Rodriguez to ask Michigan fans their opinion of John Beilein or even perhaps Mark Dantonio or Tom Izzo.
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