Ohio and Wisconsin were the winners for where we poll this week so a few questions:
-Who should we test against Sherrod Brown?
-Who should we test against Herb Kohl and who should we offer as Democratic alternatives to Kohl in case he retires, besides the obvious Russ Feingold (who we will look at.)
-I'm trying to decide the best question(s) to figure out what voters think about everything that's gone down with the tax debate this week and whether Obama capitulated too much to the right. Any thoughts?
-And finally any good questions besides the obvious in Ohio and Wisconsin would be appreciated as well.
Thanks as always...
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60 comments:
Brett Favre favorables!
Possible to test Dems on a possible Feingold challenge to Obama?
On Taxes: Recently President Obama announced a compromise with Congressional Republicans. Do you agree that all Bush tax cuts should be extended permanently, temporarily, or should all the tax cuts expire?
Do you think President Obama compromised too much with Republicans, too little, or about right?
And Please ask opinion on DREAM Act or Immigration Reform!
The frontrunners to challenge Brown in Ohio have to be Mary Taylor, Jon Husted, and Jim Jordan. Would love to see that poll.
For Ohio, I agree with Husted and Taylor. and would add Mike Turner and possibly Greg Hartmann, the Hamilton County Commissioner.
How about the division of the new Big 10?
cI'd poll a Dewine rematch too.
To test against Sherrod Brown: Jean Schmidt, Bill Harris, Patrick Tiberi, or maybe Mary Taylor
To test against Herb Kohl: J.B. Van Hollen
Other Dem's: Barbara Lawton, Tammy Baldwin, or Gwen Moore
This week, President Obama and Congressional Republicans agreed to temporarily extend the Bush tax cuts and unemployment benefits, while also extending ( list of stuff).
Do you support or oppose this plan?
Do you think President Obama compromised too much, too little, or about the right amount?
I think that it's important to say "Bush tax cuts." I could also be convinced that it should say "reached a compromise" instead of "agreed to" but I thought "agreed to" was more neutral. I also think that it's important to test both the plan AND whether Obama compromised enough.
In Wisconsin, maybe a generic Republican to see if another Ron Johnson would work? Also Kleefisch and Van Hollen. Paul Ryan is a waste to poll, I don't see any circumstances where he leaves the house, I also don't see Tommy Thompson running and your numbers last time showed he wouldn't be viable. Maybe poll Green also?
Test Paul Ryan, Rebecca Kleefish, Tom Barrett, Kathleen Falk, and Ron Kind,
OH-Sen
DeWine (AG), Kevin Coughlin (Summit County State Senator), Mary Taylor (LG), Bob Latta, John Husted (SoS)
WI-Sen
laFollette (5 term(?) SoS), Tammy Baldwin, Sean Duffy, Reid Reible, Dan Kapanke (10 nominee against Ron Kind), Tom Barrett, Kathleen Falk, J.B. Van Hollen (GOP AG elected in '06)
Favre vs. Kohl.
Dave Westlake or Sean Duffy would be interesting against Kohl and Feingold.
Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat.
Test Brett Favre for president in Wisconsin.
I think the most likely challengers to Brown will be Jim Jordan, Steve LaTourette, Mary Taylor, & Jon Husted.
I doubt that DeWine will seek a rematch due to his wide loss in 2006.
In WI, I think that Paul Ryan, Mike Huebsch, Tim Michels, & Tommy Thompson will be the most likely challengers.
Ohio: Mary Taylor and Jim Jordan. Maybe Steve LaTourette and Robert Latta. Any questions about the economy and how that affects how they vote would be good for Ohio.
Wisconsin: For the GOP, I think it's all about the random rich guys. All House members are likely to stay put in the majority, rather than run statewide in blue Wisconsin in a presidential year. Definitely test Paul Ryan, though, but no others. Definitely not Tommy Thompson. Maybe Dave Westlake or Dick Leinenkugel or someone like them who has nothing to lose but their own wealth.
For the Dems, besides Feingold, test Tom Barrett, Ron Kind, and maybe Barbara Lawton, Mike Sheridan, and Steve Kagen. Would be interesting to see Tammy Baldwin run, but I'm not sure if she's worth polling.
For Wisconsin, lots of people are suggesting House freshman and Tommy Thompson. Both would be a waste of time to poll. Same for DeWine in Ohio; he hasn't even been sworn in as Attorney General.
Really, no GOP house members are likely to run in Ohio and definitely not in Wisconsin. The only states where you're likely to see GOP reps risking majority status in the House on a Senate run are in the super red states.
You might also want to road test Blackwell vs. Brown.
Wisconsin: Kleefisch, Van Hollen, Ryan vs. Kohl or open seat
Ohio: Jim Jordan, Mary Taylor, Ken Blackwell.
How but adding "tea party candidate"? I wonder how they would do against Brown versus a regular GOP'er.
"Possible to test Dems on a possible Feingold challenge to Obama?"
Yes, I would like to see that as well. Or if you can't poll a Democratic primary sample, at least test Feingold in a general election matchup with some of the Republicans for president.
Against Brown: definitely- Jim Jordan, Steve Latourette, Mike DeWine, Mary Taylor
maybe-Jon Husted, Bob Latta, Ken Blackwell
Wisconsin, Paul Ryan, "a wealty Republican small business owner", Tommy Thompson
Please ask about the tax cut extensions -- and also ask about people's second choice. (That is, if they prefer extending cuts for all but the highest incomes, would their second choice be extending them for everyone, or letting them expire for everyone?)
Both of the republican governor-elects in OH and WI are saying that they will refuse money for high speed rail. It would be interesting to see if the people in those states favor that decision.
I know this is off topic, but you guys should poll IA and PA the next go around. Obama can still lose IN, FL, OH and win again if he holds on to rest of midwest, keeps VA, and wins 2 of the following: NH, CO, NM, NV. So some good numbers from IA, WI, and PA would put us at ease early out.
I'd poll Dave Westlake against Kohl. Seems he has a good support system built up if he can come up with the money.
OH-
Brown vs Jim Jordan
Brown vs Steve LaTourette
Brown vs Mary Taylor
WI-
Kohl vs Van Hollen
Feingold vs Ryan
Feingold vs Van Hollen
Kind vs Ryan
Kind vs Van Hollen
I'm skeptical of these type of questions because if you phrase your question one way you can get 60% to say one thing, but if you phrase it another way, you can get 60% to say the opposite. If you call them tax cuts you'll get a different skew than if you say "current tax rates."
Do not use words like Bush, Republicans, or Obama. Be generic with few words to get an unbiased answer.
Do you favor or oppose the current tax rate deal presented this week?
Dave Westlake would be an absolute waste to poll in WI, as would Becky Kleefisch. Neither have any statewide appeal. Paul Ryan is chairman of the budget committee, he's not going anywhere. Mike Huebsch is a maybe, but in all likelihood Van Hollen is going to be the GOP nominee. Kind is most likely the Dem nominee but throw in Barrett and Falk for kicks...
Ron Kind in Wisconsin. He seems like he might run.
Dave Westlake in Wisconsin. He's talking about running.
Ohio versus Brown:
Jim Jordan
Kevin Coughlin
Steve LaTourette
Mary Taylor
Mike Turner
Tami Longaberger
Sherrod Brown v Kevin Coughlin
Sherrod Brown v Jon Husted
Sherrod Brown v Jim Jordan
Mary Taylor is a nice lady and looks good but cannot hold up to the spotlight of a US Senate campaign.
LaTourette and Turner would run only if their House districts are altered to their detriment. That holds true for any of the Ohio House members.
Ohio: Steve LaTourette, Jim Jordan, and Mary Taylor.
Wisconsin: Paul Ryan and J.B. Van Hollen for the Republicans, Ron Kind and Tammy Baldwin for the Democrats.
Ohio:
John Husted beat two Irish women -- Sandra O'Brien and Mary Ellen O'Shaunnessy in his first run statewide. He would be a formidable candidate against Brown.
One poll like this, just opening the polls of the cycle must take into account all the most prominent politicians because to have the frontrunners give the right point about every seat.
Then I hope you forget not Mike DeWine in Ohio, and T Thompson and R Feingold in Wiscosin.
Ohio:
Mike DeWine (R)
Mike Oxley (R)
Steve LaTourette (R)
Pat Tiberi (R)
Jim Jordan (R)
Wisconsin:
Russ Feingold (D)
Jim Doyle (D)
Ron Kind (D)
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Tommy Thompson (R)
Paul Ryan (R)
Jim Sensenbrener (R)
"Paul Ryan is chairman of the budget committee, he's not going anywhere."
Ryan is term limited as chairman. His term ends after the next Congress. If he is elected to Kohl's seat, he will become a Senator immediately after he loses his chairmanship. If he does not run for Senate, he will lose his Budget platform and would need to switch to something else. Appropriations or Ways and Means are possible but not quite the same.
Moving to the Senate would make him start over, but he has to start over anyway. At least in the Senate, he would have a decent chance of getting on the Budget committee.
Ryan also might be able to get something from the Senate leadership if he agrees to run. This is especially true if he turns out to poll well compared to other candidates.
In Ohio, certainly poll Jim Jordan. There's a definite buzz about him being interested. He's from a heavy R district, so it's not clear how much he has been tested. If he does choose to run though, it might make redistricting easier. Rather than ditching a freshman district (like the 6th or the 18th), they can break up his district.
In general, it can be useful to poll people like Thompson (WI) and DeWine (OH). Even though they are unlikely to run, they make a good measure for other candidates.
In Ohio I'd poll Kevin Coughlin, Mike Turner, and Jon Husted. Though Husted would have a very tough time winning a Republican primary for US Senate.
This early, any poll like this is going to only show the relative weakness/strength of Brown. It will show little about the potential Republican candidates except that some are better known having just run statewide.
I dont see Husted running at ALL, but the guy that will be a very likely challenger that everyone is missing is Treasurer Josh Mandel. Marine, Iraq Veteran, Jewish, Strong Conservative, big time fundraiser. I think the sole reason he raised so much money for a lesser seat is to flex his muscles for a senate run.
I think you need to consider Polling Josh Mandel up against Sherrod Brown. He is a veteran who is well liked, young, and can raise a ton of money.
Kevin Coughlin. He was there for me, even though I wasn't in his district. He's a guy that "does the right thing".
For Ohio
Congressman Steve LaTourette
State Senator Kevin Coughlin
Lt Gov - Mary Taylor
Congressman Jim Jordan
in Ohio, Kevin Coughlin (Summit County State Senator
I live in Ohio and my parents live in Wisconsin. I would like to see both states with competent representation.
For Ohio, poll Kevin Coughlin
For Wisconsin, poll Paul Ryan
Include Kenvin Coughlin for U.S. Senate
For Ohio Tiberi, DeWine and Oxley. Some people is wrong asking about people without experience.
Poll State Senator Kevin Coughlin for Ohio
Ohio: Kevin Coughlin, Ken Blackwell
Question for Tax Debate:
"Do you approve or disapprove of keeping that which you earn?"
"Who is the best at determining how your money is spent, you or government officials?"
"Of the following choices, please indicate which is preferable:
a) Congress passes a one- or two-year budget and then levies taxes to cover the budget.
b) Congress levies taxes and then passes a one- or two-year budget."
For Ohio it should be State Senator Kevin Coughlin
Congressman Austria
Paul Ryan and Sean Duffy against Kohl/Feingold.
Jim Jordan against Sherrod Brown.
I think Jordan will run. Ohio is losing two seats. The GOP has a 13-5, with the Democrats limited to northeast Ohio. Due to the numbers and geography they can't both be Democratic seats. If he runs, they won't have to pit two Republicans against each other.
Ryan could get a waiver on term limits for budget chairman. Cantor and Ryan are close, and Ryan is regarded head and shoulders above anyone else on the budget. I doubt anyone in the caucus would complain if Ryan got a waiver. Running for Senate would mean a lot of time on the campaign trail and raising money. If Ryan stays in his seat he can concentrate on what he likes to do, the budget.
I'd like you to include State Senator Kevin Coughlin against Sherrod Brown.
Kevin Coughlin, soon to be former Ohio State Senator would be a Great U.S. Senate replacement for the way to liberal Mr. Brown
I think you should poll Kevin Coughlin against Sherrod Brown with the understanding that he is not a household name statewide. Personally I think he would have won the governors race by a wider margin than John Kasich did.
Also poll Mike Turner and Jim Jordan.
Again I'm with all the anonomouses....Coughlin's the real deal on the stump and was exploring a gov bid last time around.
I honestly doubt that DeWine will run for re-election after he was defeated strongly in 2006.
I'd suggest polling Brown against Jim Jordan, John Husted, Steve LaTourette, & Mary Taylor.
In WI, I'd poll Kohl, Feingold, & Kind against Tommy Thompson, David Westlake, Paul Ryan, & Van Hollen.
You should really do a 2012 Presidential poll. Have Obama Vs all the speculation GOP runners. Ohio is a key state to Win. If you win Ohio, you win the Presidency. It would be interesting to see who is polling the best in Ohio.
The only one that is not a RINO of course: State Senator Kevin Coughlin.
Shoot. I know I'm really late on this, but did you guys think to ask a question about the so called "high speed" rail money that both Ohio and Wisconsin's Gov. elects turned down?
Kevin Coughlin for Senate against S. Brown in Ohio. Great match-up!
Jim Tressel vs Sherrod Brown in Ohio (I'm serious, would be very interested)
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