The winners of our vote on where to poll this week were Missouri and Arizona. Arizona tied with South Carolina and we're going to do Arizona since two other South Carolina GOP primary polls came out this week already.
In Missouri we could practically do the exact same poll we did in March, which was Todd Akin, Sarah Steelman, Ed Martin, and Ann Wagner v. Claire McCaskill and Peter Kinder v. Jay Nixon. With today's announcement we'll drop Ann Wagner but beyond that it would seem we're pretty much set. If you have suggestions of other candidates, or other questions in general, that we should look at in Missouri please let us know.
Arizona is more of an open field. We're definitely going to test Gabrielle Giffords on the Democratic side and Jeff Flake on the Republican side. What folks would you like us to look at beyond that, and what other questions should we ask there? As always your suggestions are much appreciated.
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37 comments:
For Missouri Blaine Luetkemeyer is thinking of running so he's worth a test. For Arizona Phil Gordon is apparently considering jumping in if Giffords doesn't, as is Ed Pastor.
McCain and Kyl numbers would be good. Also a Barry Goldwater and Carl Hayden approval rating would be awesome. Hayden was Arizona for half of the first 55 years of the state history.
For AZ
On the Dem side for senate, you should poll Goddard, Glassman and maybe Janet Napolitano.
In MO, I'd be interested to see Russ Carnahan's favorability statewide, he will probably try to run statewide if his CD is gerrymandered out of existence at some point.
I know you folks did individual state senate seat polls for DailyKos in WI. If it's viable to do such a thing in Arizona, I would just very much like to see a poll of a recall of Sen. Russell Pearce.
Senate President Pearce is not for sure set to face recall, but neither were the folks in WI. However, Citizens for a Better Arizona is saying they expect to have enough signatures by the May 31st deadline.
If this isn't possible or you don't go with it, thanks for listening anyway.
Everyone who wants to see this, though- please second this suggestion in the comments!
I'm still uneasy about asking anything about Giffords just yet, but since you're already planning to go there...
You might as well ask people if they think Giffords' brain injuries will adversely affect her ability to serve.
Another question...
If Giffords is unable to serve, would people like to see her husband run for her seat?
Great choices! Here is some observations for both races to possibly poll on.
Arizona -
Extra Democrats beside Giffords since you are already doing her:
* Congressman Ed Pastor
* Former AG Terry Goddard
* 2010 AG nominee Felecia Rotellini
Republicans:
* Former Congressman J.D. Hayworth
* Former Gov Fife Symington (who is playing the game he did in 2010 with the Gov race, saying he may run, but wont)
* Former 2nd Lady Marilyn Quayle
* And Sarah Palin (type it in google search, and there is buzz she may run since she has property there, and had said any pres campaign would be based in AZ.
Possibly poll a Brewer v. Goddard rematch.
MISSOURI-
U.S. Senate (Republican):
Dont bother polling Ann Wagner, because as of today, she has said she is exploring a run for Todd Akin's seat. Also today, Politico is reporting Ed Martin is open to running for Akin's seat should he run for the senate. Maybe think about not polling him.
Other potential candidates to look at:
* Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer
For the Governor race (Republican)
* Lt. Gov Peter Kinder who looks to be running, but with his taxpayer paying for his personal hotel, food bills maybe look at:
* Former Gov. Matt Blunt (now that dad is Senator, maybe he wants to get back into office in a much more GOP friendly year than 08'.
* 08' nominee Kenny Hulshof
Thank you PPP for all your work! Hope my choices help generate discussion!
Pat
Dennis burke, Ed pastor, and Rodney glassman as democrats. Jd hayworth as a republican.
Blaine luetkemeyer is considering a sen bid in Missouri, reportedly he will enter if akin doesn't.
Wouldn't mind seeing if AZ would overturn their gay marriage ban, since they only voted for it by 56-44 in 2008 and public opinion is evolving fast on the issue
AZ: On the Dem side Terry Goddard, Rodney Glassman, Phil Gordon, and Ed Pastor.
On the GOP side: Joe Arpaio, JD Hayworth, Jan Brewer.
Question: Which sheriff better represents AZ: Arpaio or Dupnik?
MO: Ask how people feel about the state legs. problem coming up with a redistricting map.
For AZ, a good question would be voters' belief whether SB1070, a year after its passage, was good or bad for the state.
Test the same old matchups in MO. There isn't anything new there except we know Wagner won't run and Akin probably will. Also test name recognition of Steelman vs. Akin to see what kind of threat he could be to her. In AZ, test Brewer against all Dems, just to test her popularity, and test how big of a factor SB1070 would be in that race.
How about Corporation Commissioner Gary Pierce in AZ Republican Primary.
In Arizona I think testing their tolerance for stricter gun control would be interesting and provide some insight into the psychology of usually pro-gun Arizonans post-Giffords shooting.
In Missouri, testing Obama vs. a generic GOP alternative would signify the way the whole state might trend. MO has been shifting from a bellweather to more reliably Republican (or so it seems) in recent years. In a Presidential year, if that holds true, then McCaskill could be doomed regardless if Obama pulls her down (and even more so if his organization decides to pull resources from MO).
Paul Gosar (AZ-1) seems vulnerable and will be challenged by former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick in 2012. Would like numbers on that.
Just an interesting question for Arizona: see how people feel about adopting a state gun (I believe this was done earlier this year).
In Missouri, test the open LG race. State Representative Steve Tilley is the Republican and Russ Carnahan could be the Democrat. This maybe Carnahan's fallback option if he loses his House seat.
Similar to everyone else for the AZ Dem Gordon, Pastor and Glassman and similar it would be cool to see how Gosar holds up now against Kirkpatrick.
In MO, there are rumors that Steelman's poor fundraising and Akin's entry may force her to drop out. She may run for something else, like Lt. Gov. This could mean that two big names in the state are facing off in the Lt. Gov race. Test Steelman vs Russ Carnahan for Lt. Gov. Maybe even test Carnahan primarying the Dem AG instead, since he joined an anti-ObamaCare suit.
"In Arizona I think testing their tolerance for stricter gun control would be interesting and provide some insight into the psychology of usually pro-gun Arizonans post-Giffords shooting."
We did that last time.
"Paul Gosar (AZ-1) seems vulnerable and will be challenged by former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick in 2012. Would like numbers on that."
We're not doing individual CDs, and certainly not state senate districts.
Goddard vs brewer rematch please
Maybe the popularity of defunding Planned Parenthood in AZ, given Jon Kyl's recent statements on that.
Definitely need to include arpaio and hayworth in your general election mathcups. Extremely interested in how they do.
Missouri:
*Blaine Luetkemeyer for Senate
*Favorability of Ike Skeleton after his long career in Congress
*Voter ID Amendment going through State Legislature (Voter Suppression in my mind, really important)
*Sharia Law Amendment (prohibit Sharia Law in courts)
*Opinions of The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn
*Ask voters what side they thought their state was on during the civil war (I like this question a lot)
*Cardinals vs Royals
Arizona:
*Potential Ballot Measure (Spending Limit Amendment) - Place spending limits on the state legislature.
*Potential 2012 Ballot Measure (Actions in English Amendment) - Mandate that all business be in English
*Giffords, Pastor, Glassman
*Napolitano is not running!
When are you going to poll states that you haven't polled so far like Oregon, Washington, Alabama, Illinois, Louisiana, Kentucky etc. ?
Illinois, Alabama, and Louisiana probably never.
Kentucky I'm sure we'll poll every few months once the general election match up for Governor is set.
Washington and Oregon I'm sure we'll poll sometime but there isn't exactly a lot of popular demand for polls in those states.
For Arizona, approve/disapprove on Joe Arpaio. See if the rather damning report on embezzlement and corruption in his department has penetrated the public consciousness.
In both states, for the sake of comparison do the 'wish the South won the Civil War' and 'NAACP vs KKK' questions. Neither state is a hotbed of Confederate sympathizers or black/white racial tensions, so they could give indicators of what a 'normal' state thinks on those questions. Arizona has a different set of racial tensions, admittedly.
please ask about support for SB 1070 !
Please include Palin in the Arizona poll. On the Dem side, Former Rep. Harry Mitchell.
Anonymous is right, the best three AZ Senate GOP names are Former Gov. Fife Symington, Marilyn Quayle, and Sarah Palin.
It may be informative to ask whether Arizonans think SB 1070 does or doesn't lead to racial profiling.
How about polling Gifford's husband Mark Kelly for Senate in AZ if she isn't physically able to run? Would Russ Carnahan win a Lt. Gov matchup if he redistricted out of his seat? And how about asking what MO voters' think about McCaskill's budget ceiling proposal?
Please ask regarding same-sex marriage in these polls. It would be very interesting to have a baseline on these.
In Missouri Peter Kinder should be tested for senator as well as governor. It would probably be easier for him to win a senate seat rather than unseat Jay Nixon.
As David Weigel suggested, why not see how many Republican voters believe that Obama might be the antichrist?
Ask them if they still do not believe Obama was born in the United States.
Also, entitlement reform: Ask if they would rather cut social security/medicare/medicaid or if they would rather have their taxes raised. We all know entitlement reform isn't popular really, but maybe if voters are asked to choose between "a rock and a hard place" it may get more support.
Also, ask them if they think the budget can be balanced without cutting medicare -aid and social security and without raising taxes. Anyone who has seen the budget can tell you it's not possible, so it would be interesting to see if voters are informed about this (my guess is they are not). Also interesting to see if Republicans, independents or Democrats are more well-informed about the issue. I'm afraid a surprising amount of Republicans think the budget can be balanced just by cutting funding for NPR and Planned Parenthood.
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