Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Bad news for Congressional Republicans

PPP's newest national poll finds that after a little more than 3 months in charge House Republicans have fallen so far out of favor with the American public that it's entirely possible Democrats could take control of the House back next year.

43% of voters think that House Republicans are doing a worse job now than the Democrats did, compared to only 36% who think the GOP has brought an improvement. 19% think things are about the same. 62% of voters thinking that the Republicans have either made things worse or brought no improvement to an already unpopular Congress does not bode particularly well for the party.

46% of voters say that if there was an election for Congress today they would vote Democratic, compared to only 41% who would vote Republican. That five point advantage for Democrats is only a hair below the margin Republicans won by in the national popular vote last year. A victory of that magnitude for the Democrats next year would at the very least result in the party taking back a large number of the seats it lost last year, and it could be enough to take back the outright majority- hard to say at this point without knowing how good a number the GOP can do in redistricting.

The key to this strong movement back toward the Democrats right now is the same as the key to the strong movement away from the Democrats last year- fickle independents quickly growing unhappy with the party in power. Exit polls showed independents supporting the GOP by a 19 point margin last year at 56-37. Now only 30% of those voters think that the Republican controlled House is moving things in the right direction, compared to 44% who think things were better with the Democrats. Given those numbers it's not much of a surprise that independents now say they'd vote Democratic for the House by a 42-33 margin if these was an election today, representing a 28 point reversal in a span of just five months.

These poll numbers also point to the reality that Republicans taking control of the House may have been one of the best things that could possibly have happened for Obama's reelection prospects. Although we found the President with slightly negative approval numbers on this poll, when asked whether they had more faith in Obama or Congressional Republicans to lead the country in the right direction 48% of voters picked Obama to only 42% who went with Congressional Republicans. Voters may not love Obama as once they did but they're finding him to be more reasonable than the alternative and that means it will be hard for the GOP to knock him off next year without a top notch nominee.

One thing is very much for certain- it's not 2010 anymore.

Full results here

29 comments:

Anonymous said...

America is having buyers remorse after the Tea Party pulled off its mask and showed the man behind the curtain. The Tea Party Republicans popularity is at an all time low.

Anonymous said...

I am sure the Republicans will be here soon to deflect from the issue and claim all of the polling is wrong!

I Am Iron Man said...

And just wait until average voters (not just political junkies) find out that the Republicans want to eliminate Medicare.

Kathy said...

The Republican "Ryan" budget is nothing more than lowering taxes for the rich to 1931 levels on the backs of the Middle Class and Eldery! I have many independent and Republican friends that are voting for Dems for that reason alone.

Anonymous said...

This all happened in only five months? Holy hell!

Anonymous said...

The American people need to pay closer attention to the deception and true nature of the Republican Tea Party. Why they continue to vote against their own interests is baffling, however, as the RTP over-reaches and once again places their religious beliefs above resolving both the financial and employment issues people will begin to wake up.
The Tea Party is simply the "rebranding" of the religious right.

NRH said...

Nate Silver's Republican Death Spiral continues apace. They've let themselves be defined and controlled by their increasingly intolerant fringe, and now none of them are able to moderate their views for fear of being obliterated in a primary. There's not too much longer to go before the overlap between 'able to win Republican primary' and 'able to win general election' vanishes entirely outside of the Confederacy, Great Plains, and Mormon Diamond.

Anonymous said...

MPATL - Thank God Republicans are too stupid to even try to hide their evil intentions of take from the weakest & give to the rich. Gop & tea, a pox on both your houses!

IP727 said...

I Am Iron Man said...
And just wait until average voters (not just political junkies) find out that the Republicans want to eliminate Medicare.

And just wait until average voters (not just political junkies) find out that it is the big lie that Republicans want to eliminate Medicare. Medicare will illiminate itself,when this welfare state destroys the economy.

headbanger_11421 said...

Absurd polling, what has happened to PPP since last year? I understand you want to appeal to your customer base, but please do it in a more realistic fashion. You simply cannot produce a poll so out of step with EVERY other poll, left or right, and expect to be taken seriously.

Jordan said...

Well they may not be happy with the Republicans, but I guarantee that if (when) they vote the Dems back into power they won't be satisfied with them either. It's a neverending cycle. If one of the parties got up the nerve to tell the corporate lobbyists to shove off and made some real change, the change the people want, imagine the possibilities. Since this seems to be such a pie in the sky idea in terms of today's politics, maybe it's time for some real reform and a change in the way politics works. When you come to a fork in the road and both roads lead to corporations winning and the people losing, maybe it's time to start building a new road. Just my two cents.

Chris Roberts said...

I said Republicans taking the House was Their waterloo.They would
overreach and Obama would win In 2012.The Republicans have done nothing to Improve Jobs which Is why Independents voted Republican
In 2010.Come january 2013 not only
Obama will still be President,and
Pelosi could once again be speaker.
As I always say PPP Is the best Pollster out there.

John said...

The Republicans promised to focus on the economy and jobs if elected. Instead they've pursued a conservative social agenda.

Anonymous said...

The Republicans inaction and lack of willingness to come to an agreement with the budget, has caused the lack of funding, to the fund that would direct money to the farm bill to stop oil speculation, that along with the huge tax breaks and subsides for the Exxon/Mobiles of the world will be the death null for these Republicans. Contrary to what Gordon Gecco said "greed is not good".

I Am Iron Man said...

IP727: You're full of it. The "Welfare State" is in no way destroying this country. The huge disparity between the filthy rich and everyone else is the root cause of problems here in the US. And the Republicans want to make those problems even worse.

The Ryan budget proposal is a con job. It takes money from the middle class & the poor and funnels it to the wealthy. It takes away the Medicare that so many people depend on and replaces it with a for profit scheme that will mean huge health care bills for the elderly and huge profits for private health insurance companies.

There's just no truth to the right wing talking points about the "welfare state." It's nonsense. Complete and utter nonsense.

Anonymous said...

So you took the same poll you did back in 2010 but applied close to 2008 electorate demos and then say "it's buyers remorse".

GIVE ME A BREAK!

PPP polling has gone down the tubes since the far-left nuts from SEIU and DailyKKKos became their sponsors.

Anonymous said...

"The Ryan budget proposal is a con job. It takes money from the middle class & the poor and funnels it to the wealthy. "

LOL. Its amazing and sad what some people are spoon fed and then believe. I blame our poor educational system for comments like the one above. Its truly saddening.

tracyo said...

Many Americans finally realize they bought "a pig in the poke" in 2010.

The Interesting Times said...

Was this poll taken before, during, or after the recently resolved shutdown crisis?

Anonymous said...

John Boners skin is orange, not white. That leads me to believe he isn't a real American, but is instead a Manchurian candidate from the Oompa Loompa nation.

Why does Boner refuse to show his birth certificate? He's hiding something!!! Look at how slow he talks, it's obvious he's straining to avoid talking in a rhyming cadence like an Oompa Loompa!

Anonymous said...

I am a retired Govenment worker and my taxes have went up on both my pension and my social security that I received. I am now several dollars short each month and things are costing more. There is no way I would vote for a Republican now or ever. The party is totally out of touch with the citizens of this country.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Was this poll taken before, during, or after the recently resolved shutdown crisis?"

Take a look at the dates.

MADAM said...

cknowledge that they have done NOTHING since they won the House, even more so than the two previous years! With all their campaign promises, they have fallen back on their negative ways, with their goal of overcoming this President! Little do they know!!

Anonymous said...

I personally believe that the only reason people voted the Republicans in office during the mid-term elections was because they were becoming impatient with Obama on the issues of the economy and his innability to effectively deal with corporate lobbyists. I would just like to point out that the economy is going to take more than two years to completely recover from the lack of regulation it suffered from under the leadership of the Republicans and that it is difficult for Obama to deal with the lobbyists ruining our great nation when most of his congress is being lobbied by said lobbyists.

Todd Dugdale said...

Those numbers showing Independents' view of the two Parties is quite illuminating.
49% of Independents think that the Democrats are "mainstream", compared with 36% who say they are "extremist".

33% of Independents say that the Republican Party is "mainstream", and 49% say the Party is "extremist".

Republicans think that 2010 happened because of their base, but it was the Independents that provided the margins.

Anonymous said...

I guess this poll had nothing to do with Wisconsin. I think this is a liberal publication and I really beleive the Tea party is kicking the butts of the progressives. LMAO. Go Wisconsin!!! Fight a good fight. Keep the progressives looking for needle in the hay stack.

Tax Payer said...

Politicians are the only people in the world who create problems and then campaign against them.
Have you ever wondered, if both the Democrats and the Republicans are against deficits, WHY do we have deficits?
Have you ever wondered, if all the politicians are against inflation and high taxes, WHY do we have inflation and high taxes?

the bearded crank said...

Wait'll the old folks find out that Republicans want to replace Medicare with $8,000 vouchers. Good luck trying to get private health insurance for $8K as a senior citizen. Multiply that by 4x and it might be more realistic.

www.thebeardedcrank.com

Anonymous said...

people are just stupid they will vote those greedy money grubing republicans back in. because people are just plumb dumb. they beg for punishment the republicans give it to them. and the dumb asss vote them in again. the only problem is i have to suffer right along with a freekin idiots. wake up people and smell the shit the republicans are spewing out thier lying mouths.

 
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