Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Boehner falling out of favor

It hasn't taken John Boehner long to fall out of favor with the American public. His national approval rating has dropped a net 18 points already since the beginning of January. At the outset of the year 35% of voters approved of the job he was doing to 28% who disapproved and 37% who were reserving judgment. Now his approval has declined 10 points to 25% and his disapproval has risen 8 points to 36%.

What's most interesting about Boehner's fall is that you can't pin it to a single voter group- he's down a good deal with everyone. He is, as has been speculated, having trouble with the base. 56% of Republicans gave him good marks at the start of the year but now less than half of them do at 45%. He was on narrowly positive ground with independents in January at 34/30 but now he's in negative territory at 21/34, reflective of the national trend back away from the GOP with independents after a good year for Republicans with them in 2010. And where Democrats were willing to give Boehner a chance starting out- only 39% disapproved of him- that number is now up to 53%.

What might be most remarkable about Boehner's numbers is that Nancy Pelosi now has a higher approval rating than him- 30% to his 25%. Pelosi's disapproval is still a whole lot higher too- 53% to Boehner's 36%- but for as much as Pelosi has been maligned it's interesting to see that there are more voters who like her than her successor.

21 comments:

I Am Iron Man said...

Once the Republican plan to destroy Medicare becomes well known I think GOP numbers across the board will plummet.

The average voter is just not with the Republicans on this far right wing ~ give everything to corporations and nothing to the average person ~ thing.

The Interesting Times said...

Care to speculate on why your poll differs so much from Rasmussen's polling on this?

Rasmussen recently showed Boehner being viewed much more favorably than Pelosi and Reid, and even slightly more favorably than Obama.

Anonymous said...

@tIT: Because Rasmussen is biased conservative. Have you ever seen how anyone right leaning is WAY ahead in everything in their polls, yet every other, and I mean EVERY other reputable polling outfit is skewed the other direction? Rasmussen is the outlier everytime. Look it up, if you don't believe me.

Anonymous said...

All congress and the senate have to do pass a law that part of gov. on any level can spend tax money on anything that isn't made in the usa. They also have to pass a law that they wouldn't deal with any company who's headquarders isn't in the usa.Are gov. caused this problem.when thay sold the working people out

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Rasmussen recently showed Boehner being viewed much more favorably than Pelosi and Reid, and even slightly more favorably than Obama."

I didn't see that, but that's laughable.

Anonymous said...

Rasmussen was real accurate on 2008 election results too-not!

Anonymous said...

Rasmussen? NO ONE with a brain bothers with them any longer. They have missed the mark SO many times, and been out of line with EVERY other polling group over the last 3 years that they have lost credibility with everyone except the Far Right Wingers and Tea parties....which are the only groups they call when polling.

Anonymous said...

The Tea Party and Boehner want to take everything away from the true Americans.In doing this they think they can pull down President Obama.
The GOP are actually afraid of the Tea Party. Remember they carry guns. And they have the Koch brothers behind them with all that money.
They are so misguided, they do not know which end is up.
Tea Party got in office because the blue dogs were voted out. Not because the tea party was so strong. They are a fill in for the blue dogs. Simple as that.Boehner will have a lot to cry about in 2012 when grass roots will put our President in for a second term.
They won a small battle but they will lose big time in 2012.

Anonymous said...

I really like what anonymous said about the Blue Dogs losing and the Tea Party crazies replacing them. It really resonates and is true. There is no way a conservative or right wing politician or anyone can be called a true blue Democrat! They are not only lying to others but to themselves.

Anonymous said...

Just Google "Rasmussen Effect" and you will learn why no one takes Scott Rasmussen seriously. Most people refer to him as Activist Conservative Pollster Scott Rasmussen.

Anonymous said...

All GOP voters are not mindless believers of birther, anti-govt, anti-abortion, anti-everything bull.
Why aren't the majority harassing their republican representatives to be the least bit responsible approaching the Federal budget. The ridiculous demands coming from the right on Federal cuts reflect the true irresponsibility in government today is located in the majority in the House.

The Interesting Times said...

In response to the various anonymous anti-Rasmussen comments above: Not buying it.

Rasmussen is actually in general agreement with the other pollsters, not an outlier, most of the time.

Furthermore, lately Obama has actually been polling better on Rasmussen than on Gallup, roughly half of the time. For a stretch a few months back, Obama consistently polled better on Rasmussen than on Gallup nearly every day. So no, Rasmussen's polling does not have a conservative bias (their analysis and commentary is a different story).

Surprisingly, after Obamacare passed, Rasmussen actually showed a more favorable trend developing for Obama than Gallup did--another strike against any allegations or right-wing bias on Rasmussen's part (or, conversely, left-wing bias on Gallup's part).

Now Quinnipiac, I can see being an outlier with a right-leaning bias. That shoe just doesn't fit Rasmussen.

From my analysis of polling trends and patterns (and I have to data to back it up), I concluded some time ago that significant disagreement when it happens between Rasmussen and other pollsters (Gallup especially) is generally systematic, but not nearly as simple as a mere case of someone being biased to the right or left. At the risk of oversimplifying, I've noted that whenever Obama is having a good week or month, Gallup shows a bigger rise in approval than Rasmussen does; similarly, whenever Obama has had a particularly bad time, Gallup shows a bigger decline in approval than Rasmussen does. It's almost as if Gallup is just more fickle, or conversely, as if Rasmussen just has more inertia.

Anyway, I was hoping someone would put forward a plausible explanation for the difference. As far as I know, the only methodological difference is that Rasmussen gives respondents the choice of Strongly Approve, Somewhat Approve, Somewhat Disapprove, and Strongly Disapprove, while PPP and most other pollsters typically use a more traditional Approve/Disapprove dichotomy--it would be interesting to see an experimental poll from PPP to see whether or not this makes a difference in actual results.

What I got instead was typical partisan blame-the-messenger polemics.

Anonymous said...

I bet he cried about it.

Anonymous said...

Boehner went to a Catholic high school? Maybe he should have gotten more sex.

Bville Yellow Dog said...

The RAS method is well known. If he is measuring something that you can't check him on - he is biased far right, if you can check him with an election - he quits cheating.

Anonymous said...

YES, about RAS being biased. They skew to the right to influence media (who quote him) and others. In the last week or so before an election, they do polls fairly and get high marks for being accurate. Every pollster and informed voters know that RAS is right and inaccurate regularily. Just compare them to others. I was robo called by them and most questions were skewed to answer which would favor conservatives and RepubliCORPans.

The Interesting Times said...

And of course, Bville Yellow Dog, we can't check you on that...

KCYeti said...

Everytime I check up on DKos there is a crying image of teh Orange Bone.

Anonymous said...

Boehner's approval rating is still higher than Obummer or Plasticface Pelosi's. Come on 2012!

Delbard said...

The House GOP should find out where the tea-bagers benefits from government and cut therm off first. In addition, ALL religious groups should be required to provide a "social safety net" to their communities in exchange for tax exemption. (ALL Xtian groups would wave their tax exemptions). Furthermore, all governments should allow ANY group that provides aid to the needy. AL-Queida would say "Praise Allah" for such an action.

Icantfathom said...

I dont mean to say I told you so guys. But maybe Americans should start voting. John is thelast god damn thing our country needs.He islike salt to an openwound nancy was neosporin. I voted. It wasNovember. u know the month before december,thislastone?Lynch boner!

 
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