Monday, April 25, 2011

Many still fighting the Civil War...

The Civil War may have come to a close almost 150 years ago but Republicans in three Southern states still aren't sure its outcome was a good thing. Less than half of GOP voters in Georgia, North Carolina, and Mississippi are glad that the North won the Civil War:

-In Georgia 47% of Republicans are content with the Union victory, while 31% wish the South had won. Democrats (58/17) and independents (54/19) are both strongly supportive of the North, making the overall numbers 53/23.

-In North Carolina GOP voters are almost evenly divided on the outcome of the war with 35% glad for the North's victory, 33% ruing the South's loss, and 32% taking neither side. Democrats (55/15) and independents (57/14) have similar numbers to Georgia but due to the greater ambivalence of Republicans about the northern victory, overall less than half of Tar Heel voters (48%) are glad the Union won to 21% who wish the Confederacy had.

-In Mississippi no group of the electorate seems all that enthused about the North having won. Republicans, by a 38/21 margin, outright wish the South had won. Democrats (39/22) and independents (49/15) side with the North but compared to those voter groups in North Carolina and Georgia they're pretty ambivalent. Overall just 34% of voters in the state are glad the Union prevailed to 27% who wish the rebels had been victorious.

A few weeks ago we released numbers showing that a plurality of Republicans in Mississippi think interracial marriage should be illegal. Democrats there think it should be legal by a 68/18 margin and independents do so 56/21, making the overall numbers in the state 54% who think it should be legal to 28% who believe it should be illegal.

GOP voters in North Carolina and Georgia don't have the same hang up about interracial marriage that their peers in Mississippi do. In Georgia Republicans think it should be legal by a 52/29 spread. Democrats do so 67/20 and independents do 74/13, making the overall numbers 62/22. And in North Carolina Republicans think it should be legal by a 55/30 spread. Democrats do so 74/15 and independents do 80/11, making the the overall numbers 68/20.

Full results here

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

Guess those Republicans that wish the South had one forget to pay attention in history class. Nobody in the Confederacy voted for the Republican Lincoln! That's why I am and always will be a DEMOCRAT.

Anonymous said...

This poll is just messed up. 10-15% of African Americans wanted the South to win the Civil War? Did they misunderstand the question or what?

Bob said...

Very interesting. I think this certifies that Georgia and North Carolina have finally crossed over the 1950s and into the 21st century. Hopefully Mississippi is not far behind. I wonder when Oklahoma and Alabama will?

Anonymous said...

Thank you for doing these polls and shining a light on GOP buffoonery in the south

Jugulum said...

I wonder how many people who wished the South had won would say, "I wish the South had won, and then immediately banned slavery."

Anonymous said...

I really have to wonder what they think would have happened if th South had won. Do they think they would still have slaves? That blacks would still not be able to vote? What would their economy look like?

The Interesting Times said...

Enough already. We get it. PPP doesn't like Mississippi.

Can we get back to real issues now?

Gordon said...

I do wonder what percentage of those not glad the North won believe slavery and/or segregation would nonetheless have ended by today if the the outcome of the war had been different. Especially in the South and among GOP voters, I could see this being true of a substantial group of those polled, although not most.

kisekileia said...

That's not crossing into the 21st century. That's crossing into the 1970s. I live in Toronto and I would be surprised if more than 5% of the population here would support a ban on interracial marriage.

Tom Jensen said...

We do not 'hate' Mississippi. All we did was ask the question, if the answer makes the state look bad that's not really our fault.

Bob said...

kisekilela: Yeah, I doubt that...

The Interesting Times: It is Mississippi residents who are making their state look dumb, not the polling companies.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure how to interpret these results. I'm a liberal and I certainly wish the south had won their "right" to secede. Imagine how prosperous the United States would now be ... unencumbered by the low-productivity and uneducated southern states. Let 'em "rise again" and fer gawd's sake LET 'EM GO THIS TIME!!!!

Wolf of Aquarius said...

@Jugulum

I think many Southern conservatives cling to the fantasy that the Confederacy would have banned slavery sooner or later. A quick reading of the CSA's founding documents or the speeches of its politicians will quickly disabuse one of this notion as slavery and white supremacy are very explicitly stated to be at the core of its national character. And there would have been little or no economic incentive to improve the lot of blacks as the history of sharecropping and Jim Crow goes to show.

I think Harry Turtledove is correct in his alternate history vision of a very bloody end to a victorious CSA.

Ultimately, I think the conservative pro-South sentiment is due to resentment that many people think it was necessary for the North to tell the South how to run their states. But in the case of slavery, I see no other way for it to have ended other than by force of Federal arms.

Louis said...

These southern state polls are excellent. They need to be read in light of the older work of John Shelton Reed, who asked very similar questions back in the 1970s.

No doubt Tom Jensen is familiar with Reed, Kenan Professor of Sociology, emeritus.

Anonymous said...

Who pays for these stupid polls?

The Interesting Times said...

I simply fail to see the point of asking questions that have little relevance to public policy, and seem to have no other goal than to make Southerners sound crazy.

The Interesting Times said...

Wolf of Aquarius, I think it is likely that a victorious Confederacy would have ended slavery eventually. I doubt the CSA would have done it on its own initiative, though. More likely it would have been forced by internal resistance and external trade embargoes, similar to what ended apartheid in South Africa in the 1990s.

Anonymous said...

"Who pays for these stupid polls?"

PPP surveyed 790 Georgia voters from March 31st to April 3rd, for a +/-3.5% margin of
error; 817 Mississippi voters from March 24th to 27th, for a +/-3.4% margin of error; and
507 North Carolina voters from April 14th to 17th, for a +/-4.4% margin of error. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
PPP
surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic
polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its
surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.


The fact that so many people can't read makes these poll results no surprise.

NRH said...

It puts into context exactly who makes up the core of the Republican Party and suggests what themes the Republican candidates are going to pander to their base on for the next year or so, regardless of how batshit insane it sounds to the rest of the country, then try to pretend in the general that they never said any of it.

Anonymous said...

I should point out that a lot of Northern and Western Republicans also would have liked to see the South win. The idea that it comes down to provincialism or racism is something they throw out there and hope it sticks.

 
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