Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Obama in decent shape in Georgia

If Newt Gingrich is looking for a solid show of support for his Presidential bid he won't find it in his home state of Georgia. Just 39% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him, to 47% with a negative one. Only 31% think he should seek the White House next year, to 50% who say he shouldn't run. And if he somehow snagged the Republican nomination there's a very decent chance he wouldn't even win the state against Barack Obama in the general election- we find the race basically tied with Obama leading Gingrich by the slimmest of margins at 46/45.

Obama looks like a pretty viable contender in the state next year regardless of who his Republican opponent is. 47% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 48% that disapprove. Those numbers suggest Georgia is probably the state Obama lost in 2008 that he has the best chance of flipping for 2012 because in the two states that he came closer to winning last time around- Missouri and Montana- his approval numbers are far worse at 43/52 and 41/54 respectively.

In addition to his lead over Gingrich Obama also has an advantage over Georgia's other home grown candidate, Herman Cain, at 44-39 and over Sarah Palin at 48-43. He trails both Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney by three points at 48-45 and 46-43 respectively, but even those deficits represent an improvement from his 5 point loss in the state in 2008.

Georgia's yet another generally Republican leaning state where voters are just not responding very positively to the leading names in the GOP Presidential picture. Only Huckabee has more voters in the state with a positive impression of him than a negative one at 48/33. In addition to Gingrich's negative numbers Romney comes down at 37/41, Cain at 28/36, and Palin at 35/56.

Even if Obama doesn't end up winning in Georgia next year the vast differences in his support along age lines suggest Democrats should be competitive in the state in the years to come. Among voters under 65 Obama's approval rating is a 52/42 spread. It's only his horrid numbers with senior citizens at 27/68 that put his numbers in negative territory overall. As whites who grew up in the segregation era die out over the next decade or two this state should start looking a lot 'purpler' than its red tinge in recent election cycles would suggest.

As for Newt, Obama can only hope to be able to run against someone who would struggle to win his own home state.

Full results here

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

TimPa would struggle to win his home state too...even moreso.

I Am Iron Man said...

Winning Georgia would be oh so sweet!

I'd really like the crazy Tea Party vote to come together to support one particularly crazy unelectable candidate... so maybe these poor numbers for Gingrich are a good thing.

I think the key is for there to be a consolidation of the anti-Romney vote.

As an Obama supporter I do not want Romney in the general election - I really think he's the only one of the current crop of loons that could beat the President (not that Romney is a great candidate - he has huge problems --- just that the rest of potential GOP nominees are absolutely terrible.)

Kevin said...

And Romney wouldn't win his home state either. Or Christie. Or Bachmann.

Hmm...I'm sensing a trend.

Anonymous said...

I'm positively surprise by these results for Obama. If he's only down by 3 in Georgia with approval rating nationally at 45-47%, he can win GA if he improves by 5%.

If it's not in 2012, GA will be definitively a swing state in 2016-2020.

in 6 to 10 years, the map will become almost impossible for the GOp with Democrats playing offense with real chances to win in GA but also AZ and Texas.

I can't wait.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"And Romney wouldn't win his home state either. Or Christie. Or Bachmann."

All of those candidates are from pretty blue states overall, though.

Kevin said...

You're right. But it is fairly odd how most Republicans are losing in the states they are from...

Pawlenty
Bachmann
Romney
Christie
Ryan
Santorum
Gingrich
Bush (Jeb)

I can't imagine Trump doing well in NY, either.

This trend doesn't bode well for Republicans...

Todd Dugdale said...

"Among voters under 65 Obama's approval rating is a 52/42 spread. It's only his horrid numbers with senior citizens at 27/68 that put his numbers in negative territory overall."

Is this primarily A GA phenomenon? I'm not seeing such a stark split (27/68) in your DKos weekly polling. I hope that you continue to point it out in future polling where it applies.

Ranjit said...

Folks,

I am so glad to see democrats spending so much time on Georgia ! keep it going !

Anonymous said...

"As whites who grew up in the segregation era die out over the next decade or two this state should start looking a lot 'purpler' than its red tinge in recent election cycles would suggest."


Huh? Is this particular portion implying that whites who grew up during the segregation era are mostly racist or something?

Paul said...

This isn't surprising. Georgia's population is surging and thus changing rapidly. Atlanta now has the nation's second largest Black middle class - people who will turn out at the polls. The state is also gaining Asian and Latino voters. Plus moderate/liberal whites have moved in from the deindustrialized areas of the country. Georgia (as well as North Carolina) are not the Dixie states they once were.

Anonymous said...

Interesting spin, 48% disapproval is a good thing.

 
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