The winners of our vote on where to poll this week were Nevada and West Virginia. As always we appreciate your question suggestions.
There are three things in particular I'd like some feedback on:
-In Nevada should we test anyone besides Shelley Berkley and Byron Georgiou on the Democratic side and Dean Heller on the Republican side for Senate?
-We obviously can't test every possible permutation for the general election for Governor in West Virginia. We're definitely going to do Earl Ray Tomblin, Natalie Tennant, and John Perdue on the Democratic side vs. Betty Ireland on the Republican side. Anyone else we need to throw in that general election mix?
-We'll definitely test Shelley Moore Capito against Joe Manchin for Senate- any other Republicans we should look at?
Thoughts on those questions as well as any question ideas you might have much appreciated as always.
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39 comments:
I hear Brian Sandoval's popularity has declined a rematch might be worth doing, but it may also yield the same result since Rory Reid is hated.
Does Sharron Angle in NV-02 put the seat in play for Democrats?
How do people feel about Harry Reid?
How do people feel about Joe Manchin?
How do people feel about a Mollohan-McKinley rematch?
Poll Ross Miller's numbers in NV Dem primary
Include Huntsman in your NV gop primary poll to see if having him in the race cuts into Romney's mormon support.
Definitely need to include Rick Thompson.
woud you be able to do any polling on Sharon Angle and the congressional district she is running for? I know that the new district lines are not set yet, but you could test her in Heller's current district to see how she might fare
For West Virginia if you can you should test Bill Maloney, who out raised Ireland. He's probably a longshot to make it to the general election but it appears he may have a little bit of a chance. If you could do a primary for the GOP to see if an upset looks possible that would be great.
NV:
Test a Sandoval-Reid rematch, the GOP primary (or caucus; I forget which one they have), and the presidential race.
WV:
Test the GOP primary.
How about a poll of the popularity of the Ryan budget in both states? That's going to be a big campaign issue in 2012. Rep David McKinley in WV was one of only four GOP reps to oppose it so maybe his polling shows that it is highly unpopular there. You could ask people specifically how they feel about the budget and more generically how they feel about the bill's proposals such as replacing medicare with a voucher system.
I recent poll by CNN just came out yesterday showing 51% of Americans support the legalization same-sex marriage, the 4th major poll recently to show majority support.
I would really love to see the statewide level of support in these two states (NV and WV), where I've never really seen specific poll numbers regarding same-sex marriage. I think it would be really interesting to see the % who support same-sex marriage vs. the % who oppose it, without the option of civil unions.
It would be interesting to compare the two states to recent nationwide numbers.
Definitely Betty Ireland/Bill Maloney/Clark Barnes. They are probably the top three on the WVGOP side. I'd like to see you do all the candidates, but I understand why you can't. Thanks for doing the poll research.
WV- You have to test Bill Maloney for Gov. He has outraised Ireland and is really her main primary opponent now. Also test him for Senate. If he loses the primary, I wouldn't be surprised to see him run for Senate.
Ask voters how Manchin's HCR repeal vote affected their opinions of him
You should ask if republicans would vote for a more conservative republican in the primary,
also ask if Joe Manchins vote to keep funding planned parent changes your view of him as a pro life democrat.
Asking if Shelley Moore ran for the senate in a GOP primary for the second congressional who would you support, Del. Mitch Carmichael, Senator Clark Barnes, Del Jonathan Miller, Del Craig Blair
In the case if Shelley Moore Capito does run for the Senate, then in a 2nd congressional primary, who would they choose, Del Carmichael, Del Jonathan miller, Sen. Clark Barnes, Fromer Del Craig Blair,
Also she how Bill Maloney runs against the democrat.
Also ask in Shelley Moore did run for the senate would they vote for a more conservative republican,
For Senate on the GOP side: David McKinley and John Raese.
Test Trump as one of the Republicans in both states.
Test Rick Thompson on the Dem side. He has the backing of labor and teachers. I imagine he will at the least be ahead of "Big John" Perdue.
Betty Ireland in the gubernatorial race. And try Robin Davis as an alterntative Democrat. She says she's running for some office next year (against David McKinley?. Test Brian Krolicki as a republican alternative and Cortez Masto(who the DSCC attempted to, but failed to recruit) as the democratic alternative.
Please take a look at John Raese in W. VA senate race. Thank you for all your work!
In Nevada, see how Heller and Angle compare in a Republican primary. Do Nevada Republicans still support her, or did losing an easy race turn her into a pariah?
In WV, I think it would be interesting to ask people if they actually expect her to run for Senate this time. It seems she could win the title for "Most Likely to Decline to Run for Higher Office."
You might also poll a rematch with Raese.
"Does Sharron Angle in NV-02 put the seat in play for Democrats?"
We're not likely going to do individual CDs.
WV: Bill Maloney for the Republicans, Rick Thompson for the Democrats.
NV: Ross Miller or Kate Marshall for the Democrats.
In Nevada:
(In light of recent events): Should online poker be legalized?
(In light of recent national polling reported via Nate Silver): Should same-sex marriage be legalized?
Birtherism amongst conservative Democrats in WV.
You've got to be testing the Ryan-GOP "end Medicare as we know it" bill on every house and Senate race such as NV where Heller is not backing away from his vote for it. It would be good to eventually see how this race would compare to MT where Rehberg didn't vote for it.
Should become a standard question here on out.
mollohan and mckinley never ran against each other guy
can you test secretary clinton popularity in west virginia or nevada?
Gay Marriage
I actually think polling this issue in both states would illuminate the recent polling showing a majority nationwide supports marriage equality.
Hey, could you ask the democrats (well, and republicans/independents if you want as well) if they think Trig is really Sarah Palin's son? I have seen that old conspiracy (that he is the son of her daughter or something) pop up again. Would be interesting to see if democrats are as likely to believe anything negative about Palin as Republicans are likely to believe anything negative about Obama (I think birtherism is really just an expression of great disappointment in the president). Seeing as Palin is as unpopular among Democrats as Obama is among Republicans , I'm thinking the number of "trig truthers" is likely to be shockingly high.
Cause West Virginia is a small state, poll the approvals of McKinley and Rahall. Both of WV Senators are over 62 and they could be the next Senators. You don't have to do individual CD's in this question.
Poll the approvals of unions and gay marriage is this heavy union anti-gary marriage state.
Poll the favorability of different kinds of music in West Virginia: Bluegrass (fiddling), ballad singing and other Scottish music.
This would be a good state to ask about social issues, like the race one in MS.
WV Gov. (D) - Rick Thompson
WV Gov. (R) - Clark Barnes
Which of Nevada's current senators is more (un)popular?
After all, both Reid and Ensign are quite unpopular
Ask about gas prices. There's been speculation of late that increasing gas prices could be a large factor behind the President's declining approval rating and the public's increasing dissatisfaction with the state of the economy. Asking who the public holds responsible for high gas prices could be illuminating.
Should Gov. Sandoval appoint Dean Heller to the seat being vacated by John Ensign??
There was no Mollohan-McKinley matchup. Mollohan lost his primary to a more conservative challenger, Mike Oliviero, who lost very narrowly to McKinley in the general election.
Now that Ensign is resigning, you should ask what people think of Gov Sandoval appointing Heller to the seat. Are they ok with it or do they see this as a cheap political maneuver?
In the future could you poll two-way support/oppose gay marriage in every state? To see whether national polls showing that position taking the majority are correct (including civil unions is interesting, but we don't know how many of those people would break either way if the question was yes/no for marriage.)
In West Virginia, more interesting than the potential general election matchups, is the primary elections themselves. The primary is only a few weeks away and there is no reason to leave any candidate out of a primary question on either side of the ticket.
The gas prices question is a great concept in my opinion. I also like the ideas of polling online gambling support in Nevada, and seeing how Nevada voters would feel about Sandoval appointing a senator for the vacancy. And definitely ask about the budget plan. Ask them which they prefer.
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