This week we're on tap for our national poll and a single state poll.
I'd love suggestions for good questions to ask on the national poll, and for nominations of who to include as this month's bonus Republican in addition to the ones we test every month- Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Newt Gingrich.
We thought about doing an Arizona Senate poll including Gabrielle Giffords this week. We haven't polled that race since it became an open seat and I don't see a lot of point in doing one there that doesn't include Giffords. I asked about a dozen people whose opinion I value whether they were pro or con on doing a poll with Giffords and got a pretty even split. I'm interested in your views as well and maybe if there's not total opposition we can at least give it as a poll vote option sometime this month and if that's what people want, fine, and if not that's fine too.
But for now this week's options are:
-Iowa. Nothing pressing but we haven't done a Republican poll there since early January. It's also a swing state for the general and I'm interested in seeing if folks are still glad they voted for Terry Branstad or if they regret their new (old) Republican Governor just like folks in Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
-Nevada. Haven't polled it since it became an open seat so it's an opportunity to test a bunch of different match ups and also get a gauge of the Presidential race in the state.
-New Mexico. Could write the exact same description as Nevada.
-Pennsylvania. It's the important Presidential race state we've gone the longest without polling at this point and also interested to see how Tom Corbett's holding up after a few months in office and if Bob Casey still looks as solid as he did when we polled the state in January.
Voting is open until tomorrow afternoon, don't cheat.
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25 comments:
Maybe Rand Paul? He's been getting a lot of news the past week
Kind of OT, but did you guys ever poll the senate race in your MS poll? I remember you tweeting something about Gene Taylor, and since he wasn't in your Gov poll I assume you polled him for senate. When do you plan on releasing senate #'s?
Can you include DeMint and Gov. Gary Johnson for a National presidential poll?
Would really like to see a Washington poll at some stage. Also another Massachussets, but Washington is top priority.
I voted for Nevada, but have a question regarding it:
In both 2008 and 2010, pretty much all public polls (including you) were uniformly off in Nevada, by ~7-10 points in the Republican's favor. There are a bunch of plausible explanations for this (strong D turnout, inability to poll Hispanics, etc.) but have you changed anything in your model to try and account for this effect?
Can you please include Rudy Giuliani as this month's bonus Republican in your national poll?
I think we need a Iowa poll that includes Bachmann
You should probably start including Gary Johnson in your polling. He has shown interest in running and reports indicate that he may be close to an announcement. He probably would start with low name recognition but he may have some potential for upward movement.
with the trump N.H. poll where he looks really good i think he should be our bonus republican this mounth
You have to poll Trump...he's second in NH, and fairly well known, so most voters should have an opinion.
I'm a Washington resident not at all interested in seeing a WA poll at this point unless you are polling the governor's race. There we actually have 3 top tier candidates emerging: Jay Inless, Dow Constantine and Rob McKenna. We might also have an interesting race for Lt. Governor. There is no serious challenger to Cantwell on the horizon. Although her approval rating was only 38% in March 2010, it had risen to over 50% by Jan 2011. Her rising approval makes it unlikely that either Reichert or McMorris Rogers will consider the race.
Where are the FL primary numbers?
RUDY!
At this point I think it's fine polling Giffords. The fact that there is serious talk of her running and that her family and staff haven't stopped the talk is a sign she may actually do it. It's worth looking at.
Pennsylvania AND Indiana. Important. Indiana is the only DEM pick-up from 2008 that you have not polled yet.
Lots of propaganda about PA, but if Obama is holding in VA and NC and even OH, I must assume that his numbers should be even more solid in PA.
Bonncaruso, as a longtime blog reader, you should know we can't poll IN.
Dustin,
Give me a script and some phone numbers and I'll help you poll Indiana manually if you decide to give it a try. I could probably get a few friends from HucksArmy or Team Huck to help. We have a pretty good group in my neighboring state that might be interested in some of the local races as well.
I voted for Iowa because I'd like to see if Pawlenty, Gingrich, and/or Bachmann have picked up any support with their visits.
I'm not opposed to any of the choices though. I like seeing all of the polling results even when my guy isn't winning them.
Trump for bonus Republican
1. I would always poll Pawlenty. Unlike Huck and Palin he's definitely running, and could plausibly win both the primary and the general.
2. If you're going to poll Giffords you should either just do a favorable/unfavorable question or preface a horse-race question (Giffords v. Flake, Giffords v. Salmon, etc) with something like "assuming that Giffords makes a full recovery". Otherwise I suspect a lot of people wouldn't know how to answer that question, because it isn't clear what sort of shape she will be in.
Definitely should include Rand Paul.
pennsylvania, definitely. it will be a big target for republicans for senate and president and it will be interesting to see how casey is doing, especially sans-sanotrum. also, how tom corbett is holding up, which i believe is better than walker, kasich and snyder.
Giuliani! He's shown strength in polls (he out polls Palin most times)
I'd second some of the other great thoughts.
Pawlenty should be included for all national polls. He's definitely running and will get a decent percentage. Plus without him it skews Romney's numbers higher.
Bachmann for the Iowa Poll
Would like Trump as the bonus GOP.
I'm certainly in favour of polling Arizona with Giffords.
We've already been including Pawlenty in the primary field. He's still not enough of a name to include against Obama every time. We could, but I can guarantee he wouldn't be doing much better than Gingrich or Palin at this point simply because of name recognition.
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