Nevada and Vermont were the winners of our vote on where to poll this week.
Nevada the Senate race seems pretty set and we'll look at the Presidential race too. Any questions we should ask in the state besides that stuff and the obvious approvals for Harry Reid and Brian Sandoval? This is a statewide poll so we're not going to be doing the special election to fill Dean Heller's House seat at this point but I'm sure we'll take a look that sometime closer to the election.
In Vermont who would you like to see us poll against Bernie Sanders and Peter Shumlin? And what questions we should ask beyond those two races and the Presidential contest?
As always appreciate the suggestions.
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Have you polled (has anyone) what people believe is a small business (employees / revenues)
Since Vermont is probably the most liberal state, perhaps test Obama's vulnerability with the left among Dems by testing him against Bernie Sanders or Howard Dean (would love to see his fav/unfav there)?
Considering how publicly Reid has been grabbing his ankles on the debt ceiling standoff, you should ask the regret question about sending him back to DC. Also, you should ask if people think Reid should be the leader of senate Democrats.
I would be curious, for Nevada at least, to see what Nevadans think of the online poker ban. There has been a bunch of talk about such a bill to legalize online poker, but do people in a state in such a unique situation as Nevada believe it should be legal or illegal? The results could be interpreted a million different ways, but it would be a cool question.
I'd like to see Bernie match up against Tom Salmon and Brian Dubie in separate head to head races.
For Nevada, how about attitudes toward gambling? I would presume a rather high approval rating, but it could be one of those 'whodathunkit' results, like Matheson's unexpectedly strong showing in Utah. A fair portion of the outlying areas might not be too keen on it, for example.
You should poll Vermont with questions and crosstabs about the VT progressive party. If a 3rd party challenge to Obama manifested there, they would have something to do with it.
Poll Brian Dubie,
Tom Salmon and Phil Scott against each
Please ask, if it's possible, whether the people of Nevada approve or disapprove of gay marriage. Or to say it another way - Ask if they would prefer to have gay marriage or civil unions. Also - Would they vote for a candidate who approves of gay marriage or some legal recognition?
In Vermont
Sanders/Shumlin vs. the GOP field, which should include:
Lt. Gov. Phil Scott
Fmr. Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie
State auditor Tom Salmon
State Sen. Randy Brock
Barre Mayor Tom Lauzon
Fmr. Gov. Jim Douglas (only for Senate, he won't want his old job back, but definitely should include for Senate as this would be close)
Favorables for Dems in the legislature, Republicans in the legislature, and Progressives in the legislature (Vermont has the largest 3rd party presence in a state legislature, would be interesting to see what people think)
Sanders, Shumlin, Leahy, perhaps Deb Markowitz
Vermont recently passed their own single payer healthcare legislation. Ask a question about that.
Obviously gay marriage in VT.
Should the only VT Nuclear Plant be closed or kept open? http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iNmfy0Xc640R6VFn4Nuby7_bDCrQ?docId=4e046522126749ec987e614db98d1c26
Do you approve of socialism in general?
Civil union/gay marriage in NV (if you haven't tested before).
VT Senate Republicans:
Jim Douglas (former gov.)
Thom Lauzon (Barre mayor)
Tom Salmon (auditor)
VT Governor Republicans:
Brian Dubie (former LG; 2010 gov. cand.)
Thom Lauzon
Tom Salmon
Phillip Scott (current LG)
Mark Snelling (2010 LG cand.; son of Richard, the former gov.)
How about a rematch of Shumlin versus Dubie for Vermont? Salmon has been making more noise about running against Sanders as well, so that would be a good matchup to poll.
The full GOP field should be tested against Congressman Pete Welch in addition to Senate and Governor, as he is another statewide option
Great choices PPP!
Nevada:
Senate:
Republicans:
* U.S. Senator Dean Heller
Democrats:
* Congresswoman Shelley Berkley
* Businessman Byron Georgiou
Other Nevada:
* Reid vs Angle 2010 Senate rematch. This is one race where you had two very unpopular choices, and with Reid being very much out in public with the debt ceiling debate, just wondering to see if Nevada would send him back if they could re-vote.
* Sandoval vs Rory Reid 2010 Governor rematch
* Approval numbers of John Ensign. He is still young (55 is young, isn't it?) and is there any chance he could ever get elected in Nevada again?
___________________________________
Vermont:
Senate:
Republicans:
* State Auditor Tom Salmon (he has a exploratory committee)
* Barre Mayor Thom Lauzon
Independent:
* U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders
Democrats:
* I'm going to assume no Democrat is going to run here, since Sanders is very far to the left.
---------------------
Governor:
Republicans:
* State Senator and former State Auditor Randy Brock
* Former Lieutenant Governor and 2010 GOP nominee for Governor Brian Dubie
* Barre Mayor Thom Lauzon
Democrats:
* Governor Peter Shumlin
-----------
Other Vermont:
* U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy approval rating
* Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott approval (he is a Republican who is up in 2012)
* Vermont's lone Congressman Peter Welch's approval rating
Thank you again for taking my suggestions!!
Besides Salmon, try Jim Douglas and Thom Lauzon (mayor of Barre) against Sanders.
VT: You have to ask the Obama/Sanders primary question, given Bernie's comments about Obama being primaried being a good thing.
Obama/Sanders/Dean approvals/favorables.
The other usual suspects.
NV: NV-01.
Sandoval/Reid approvals.
GOP primary, general H2Hs. Probably should include Huntsman due to neighbor state/Mormon thing.
Would like to see more Paul/Obama head-to-heads, personally.
Nevada- Poll prostitution, marijuana, and same sex marriage...
Vermont: Do you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose Vermont's single-payer health care law which was enacted two months ago?
Nevada (1/2 of responders): Should Nevada legalize same-sex marriage?
(1/2 of responders): Should Nevada legalize same sex marriage, bringing in additional tourists and revenue to the state?
Vermont: Redo between Dubie and Shumlin, support for Shumlin's health care program.
Nevada: Redo between Reid and Angle, Gay Marriage.
How did we favor polling in the Green Mountain State, with 3 EVs, over Colorado--a sure-fire toss-up, with 9? I hope we poll there soon, and I suppose I'll stop complaining now and support those feisty Vermonters and their poll this week. Looking forward to it.
You can look forward to election analysis from the Journeying Progressive, including upcoming new analysis about President Obama's electoral college re-election chances. Find The Journeying Progressive at this link!
Thanks PPP!
My off-beat suggestion for Nevada is whether the state would support legalizing prostitution statewide. A more conventional question is for generic legislative and congressional ballots. Also it may be cool to have Mormon as a demographic category similar to what you did in Utah.
For Vermont for both Senate and Gov some good GOP picks would be Tom Salmon, Brian Dubie, and Lt. Gov Phillip Scott. For Senate it's also worth polling the GOP dream scenario of Sanders vs. Jim Douglas.
Vermonter here - outside of testing the Governor/Senate races, one that would be great to get some numbers on would be the Vermont Treasurer race. As a statewide office, it was the launching point for Gov. Jim Douglas, and the position has been held for a while by Jeb Spaulding. He stepped down to take a place in the Shumlin Administration, and Beth Pearce, a deputy at the department, was named the new Treasurer. Every indication is that she is planning on running for re-election, and former state Auditor Randy Brock is likely to be the Republican candidate. Would be really interesting to see how they stack up right now, and this is one of the few races where a poll could cause both sides to change course and take action, depending upon how Pearce holds up.
NV: Harry Reid v. Angle redo.
Harry Reid favorability.
Statewide favorability of Kate Marshall.
Rory Reid, Brian Sandoval rematch.
VT: Poll the House race--Dubie v. Welch.
For Senate poll Douglas as well as Salmon. Also, poll three way races with "generic Democrat" to see what happens if Sanders doesn't take that line out of play like he did in 06.
For Gov. see if Shumlin is vulnerable--poll Dubie and Salmon.
Ask people if they favor or oppose single payer..
Vermont: question on single-payer
Both: gay marriage legal/illegal (1), gay marriage vs civil union vs nothing (2)
Definitely ask how Sanders would do against Obama in a Democratic Primary for President. That's the question a lot of progressives want an answer to.
As a Vermonter I'd love to see the following:
Governor Peter Shumlin vs:
-Former Lt. Gov Brian Dubie
-Former Gov. Jim Douglas
-Lt. Gov. Phil Scott
-Barre Mayor Thom Lauzon
-State Auditor Tom Salmon
Senator Bernie Sanders vs the same Republican field.
Dont waste a question on Congressman Peter Welch. He's virtually as strong as Pat Leahy here.
State Auditor Beth Pearce vs. the Republican field would be a great question as it is totally unknown here. My gut tells me Republicans would poll strong as Pearce's name rec is low.
Definitely should ask about health care reform legislation.
Psyched we'll finally get some data love from PPP!
Go get 'em
Test Sanders and Shumlin (face it, they'll be renominated) against:
State Sen. Randy Brock (African American Republican, won statewide office in the past)
Fmr. Gov. Jim Douglas (most popular Republican in the state; he's probably retired; his performance is probably the ceiling for the Republicans)
Fmr. Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (very popular during his time in office, lost narrowly in 2010)
Barre Mayor Thom Lauzon (dunno about this guy)
St. Auditor Tom Salmon (ex-Democrat, converted in '09; dad was state's first Democratic governor ever; has pretty much said he's running against Sanders)
Lt. Gov. Philip Scott (again, don't know much; won as a Republican when Dubie lost, should be a strong candidate)
Mark Snelling (lost the 2010 LG primary to Phil Scott; his dad, Richard Snelling, was governor for 9 years)
Since there is talk of putting a Balanced Budget Amendment to the states for ratification it would be interesting to see if there is any state against it in theory and/or poll different versions (i.e. with a 2/3s tax raising requirement). Maybe consider making this a regular question for each statewide poll.
Definitely ask about same-sex marriage in both states. And in Vermont, you should include the Progressive Party in your party affiliation options.
Vermonter here:
For Senate, it's only worth polling Tom Salmon, as he seems dead-set on running, and the Vermont GOP isn't the type to look for primaries
For Governor, it'd be nice to see Brian Dubie and Thom Lauzon - they are the only two probable options.
I think Lt. Gov. Phil Scott is a waste of a poll question, because he is 100% running for re-election.
The Treasurer race will be the closest statewide race, would be awesome to see Pearce v. Brock, and then maybe another Dem possibility (Speaker Shap Smith, or Matt Dunne) against Brock in that race. Pearce was appointed to the position and is probably facing a huge deficit to Brock, who spent some time as state Auditor.
It would be interesting to start asking on a state basis whether voters trust Pres. Obama or House Republicans more on the debt ceiling debate. Especially in a relative swing state like Nevada.
VT:
(1) Would you prefer to be represented by a Republican, Democrat, or Independent Socialist in the US Senate?
(2) Repeal of Obamacare (since they already have single-payer now)
(3) Ben & Jerry's favorables.
(4) Len Britton, Tom Salmon, Jim Douglas, and William Doyle for Senate.
NV:
Berkeley-Heller-Oscar Goodman
Tarkanian-Reid and Lowden-Reid redos (just to rub it in about Angle winning the primary).
Legalizing online poker
Nevada:
Would it make you more likely, no difference, or less likely to support a Presidential candidate if he or she identified as a Mormon?
Vermont:
Would be very curious to see a H2H for Obama and Dean in a Dem primary
Would love to see numbers about same-sex marriage (legal/illegal and marriage/civil union questions if possible) from both states, especially from Vermont which I would assume has one of the highest levels of public support in the country.
Please include a Democratic primary option in Vermont between Obama vs. Sanders or Dean.
Please also include Rudy Giuliani in the general election matchup.
And a Gay Marriage poll in both states.
Single-payer in Vermont, and one of your excellent 2010 matchups played out now, like you've done for those unpopular midwest governors.
I'd also be interested whether Reid gains at all in one of these matchups.
VT:
- VT has had the greatest experience with the same-sex marriage issue of any state. It has had gay marriage for 2 years now and has had civil unions for 12 years. Given this, I would love to see PPP ask a question similar to one posed by the Des Moines Register a few years ago: "Has Vermont's recognition of same sex marriage affected you personally? If yes, did it affect you in a positive manner, a negative manner, or both?"
- Support/opposition re: single payer health care reform
NV:
- Las Vegas was the epicenter of the fraud-driven real estate bubble. I would ask Nevadans whom they blame for the economic downturn. I would also ask whether they are satisfied with the government's investigation of mortgage fraud.
- NV is one of 9 states that has civil unions and could move to upgrade to full marriage rights. I would therefor poll on marriage.
Sorry, just a minor correction to my comment above: VT has had 2 years of SSM and 9 years of civil unions.
For VT I would try these. For Senate vs Sanders:
Jim Douglas (former Gov)
Tom Salmon (State Auditor)
Tom Lazon (Mayor)
Against Shumlin for gov:
Brian Dubie (former Lt Gov)
Phil Scott (current Lt Gov)
Tom Salmon (state Auditor)
Randy Brock (former State Auditor)
Mark Snelling (biz owner son of former gov)
In Vermont how about asking a question to businesses about whether given the high tax structure, cost of living and uncertainty about health care, are they planning on staying/expanding in Vermont or moving/expanding outside the State.
Angle is probably political rubble at this point, but you might try polling a Reid vs. Tarkanian alternate universe "rematch." Just to see if Reid's popularity has been helped or hurt by his high-profile role in the debt ceiling controversy.
I think it would also be interesting to ask some of the same Mormon-oriented questions you covered right next door in Utah.
Including Sanders in a primary would be worthless, given that he's not a registered Democrat and has said he would not register to run in a primary.
Anon 9:11 -- Sanders is running in a Democratic primary next year. That's why it won't be a three-way race for VT-Sen. He wins the Democratic nomination and then declines it.
Whether he'd do the same thing in the presidential primary is an open question, but I think it's still worth polling.
In Nevada, I'd ask, besides the usual questions, whether respondents believe prostitution should be legal. Asking those respondents whether they are in Clark County (Vegas) or not would be informative, as that is the only county not allowed to choose the brothel system.
In Vermont, I'd poll a re-do of the close gubernatorial race last year. Asking approval of single-payer healthcare would be interesting. Gay marriage is probably supported there if anywhere, so I'd skip that.
The suggestion of asking about the Vermont Progressive Party is a good one, I think. They have members in both houses of the state legislature, and have had for years, making them the most successful third party in the country. Asking a generic Dem vs. Prog. vs. Repub. question for Governor, Congressman, or President would be really interesting.
Thanks for listening!
Approval of Gov. Sandoval's tax increase. The crosstabs would be fascinating.
Poll the support for VT new health care law
(southern Nevada only)
Greater Las Vegas is the largest metro area without a major-league baseball, football, basketball, or hockey team. If there must be a choice of which team either relocates to Las Vegas or appears as an expansion team, which would you prefer --
1. hockey
2. basketball
3. baseball
4. football
I think you should also poll Tom Salmon in the VT Gov race - he has not ruled it out.
Also worth looking into popularity of first-in-the-nation single payer health care law.
Also agree with commenter who thinks Mark Snelling should be included on VT gov polling.
And worth looking into Deb Markowitz's popularity if you have room; no place for her to move up now but widely perceived as next in line for statewide job among Dems.
the obvious ones are the popularity of Brian Dubie, the 2010 gov candidate and Gov Shumlin. When polling the gov races, include an option for an "unnamed Progressive" as well as 2008 independent candidate (and 2nd place winner) Anthony Pollina and state senator Tim Ashe (D/P) both as Progressives in addition to Shumlin and the republican candidate.
Ask if anyone LIKES Shumlin, not just approves of him. he was never popular and has a personality that could be seen as "pushy" or "obnoxious."
Ask for the popularity of Mayor Bob Kiss (P-Burlington). He's had a number of scandals and a numerical representation of his popularity would be interesting.
in July, the Legislative Apportionment Board makes proposals for the new state house maps, see what people think of those.
in the next fiscal year, if Vermont has a deficit, how should it be dealt with?
1. Cuts only.
2. taxes only.
3. a mixture of taxes and cuts.
I love the idea of polling Shumlin's likability in addition to his job approval. There does seem to be a sense that a big chunk of people don't like him as a person but will vote for him anyway (considered wealthy, secretive, rumors of an affair, etc., and he's taken more vacation already in 7 months than last governor took in 8 years.)
I'd recommend reaching out to Shay Totten of Seven Days. He's probably the most connected political reporter in the state these days and might have some good ideas for you.
Ask people in vermont why they are so nuts?
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