Wednesday, July 13, 2011

North Carolina going bad for Obama

Barack Obama's annual summer polling swoon has come to North Carolina. For the first time since February more voters disapprove than approve of him in the state, and for the first time since November he faces majority disapproval. His approval rating this month is down to 45%, with 51% of voters unhappy with him.

A sharp turn against him with independent voters is what's causing Obama problems in the state. Last month they narrowly gave him good marks by a 47/46 margin but now only 36% are happy with him while 62% disapprove. Obama's approval with Democrats is 77%, generally on par with what it's been over the course of his time in office. And even though receiving only 5% approval from Republicans is pretty bad for Obama it's also nothing new- he's had little crossover popularity with GOP voters since the day he took office.

Obama's declining popularity also means he's not doing as well in head to head match ups against possible Republican opponents for next year. He is now tied with Mitt Romney at 45%. Although the margins were usually small he had led Romney all eight previous times PPP polled a match up between the two of them in the state. The key here is again those independent voters- they give Romney a 17 point advantage at 50-33.

Obama does lead the rest of the Republican field but with the exception of Sarah Palin his advantages are modest: he's up 3 against Michele Bachmann at 46-43, 4 against Herman Cain at 46-42, 5 against Tim Pawlenty at 46-41, and 8 against Palin at 50-42.

The reality for Obama is worse than those topline numbers indicate. In all of the match ups the vast majority of undecideds disapprove of the job Obama's doing- it's 84% against Palin, 83% against Pawlenty, 81% against Cain, 77% against Bachmann, and 74% against Romney. In all likelihood most of those undecideds would not be in Obama's camp if they really had to vote today but are on the fence at this point while they wait to see who the GOP nominee is. If their votes broke the same direction as their feelings about the President that would leave him trailing all of them except for Palin.

If there is a saving grace for Obama it's that voters don't respond well to any of the Republican candidates on a personal level either. Bachmann has the best favorability numbers but it's still a -8 spread at 34/42. She's followed by Cain's -12 at 24/36, Romney's -15 at 32/47, Pawlenty's -21 at 19/40, and Palin's -22 at 35/57. The Republicans' poll numbers all have two things in common: independents dislike them and Democratic voters are more unified in disliking all of them than Republicans are in liking them. If the GOP had an appealing set of candidates Obama would likely be in a far worse position in the state.

This is the third key swing state in the last week, along with New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, where we've found Obama with under water approval numbers and struggling in head to heads with Romney. Obama's poll numbers have seemed to go bad every summer since he went to the heart of the American spotlight and they usually see some recovery- he'll have to hope that will be the case again this time around.

Full results here

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Right now people are not paying attention to politics. However the economy stinks. Thus people are naturally blaming the incumbent President. Once the 2012 campaign gets in gear, people will take a look at the GOP candidates and prefer Obama as the lesser of two evils. So far, people don't like the GOP candidates.

Anonymous said...

Out of your last 7 GOP primary polls that include all candidates (UT, NH, TX, NM, OR, MT and FL), Ron Paul has polled better than Tim Pawlenty in 6 of those 7 polls and polled better or same with Herman Cain in 5 of those 7 polls.

Will you begin to include Ron Paul in the head to head matchup with Obama or will you drop Pawlenty and/or Cain in the head to head matchup?

Anonymous said...

Wait until we see how this debt ceiling fight plays out. After McConnell's cave, it looks like Obama's going to come away the winner on that one which didn't seem like the case for months.

I Am Iron Man said...

I'm curious as to what the favorable ratings are for the Republican candidate among those who are "undecided." I know they mostly are unhappy with Obama... but they must not be pleased with the Republican candidate too if they aren't in their camp. Or perhaps it's a matter of not knowing them yet? In that case; I don't think Michele Bachmann's numbers will be getting any better. The more people learn about her, the worse she will do.

Anonymous said...

Obama is going lose North Carolina in a 55 to 45 type fashion.

Miranda said...

Of course Obama's approval is sinking - the country is failing, people are out of work, the rest of the world hates us more than they did before, we're so far in debt there's no hope on the horizon, and our president is constantly lecturing us. Obama's performance will drag down the rest of the NC Dems, including bff Anthony Foxx.Making NC the "heart of the re-election campaign" was a desperate mistake. Not only will Obama lose, the rest of the Dems will, too. Let's hope we can survive two more years until we can turn this train around.

Bob Diamond said...

It appears that Bev Perdue and Anthony Foxx are on about the same path as Obama. Either they are not able to read the tea leaves, or they don't think that the rest of us understand that these tough times require real leaders, not political hacks, in those offices. It looks like they are both leaving their doors wide open for Pat McCrory and Scott Stone. The 7 veto overrides are more than enough evidence to indicate that the political climate is quickly changing in North Carolina.

Dennis Peterson said...

Is there any surprise the numbers are falling?

Consumer confidence down, unemployment up, national debt at historic levels, and with no plan on how to correct.

It's the same with Gov. Perdue and Mayor Foxx. Bad economy with no plan.

The good news is we can start to make a difference (at least locally) this November by getting rid of Foxx and electing Scott Stone.

Anonymous said...

It will be interesting to see how Obama's numbers in North Carolina affect local races -- Pat McCrory's numbers for governor are looking better than ever, and DNC-host Charlotte promises an interesting mayor's race with Republican Scott Stone establishing some solid support early in his campaign.

Dustin Ingalls said...

I love all the Scott Stone hacks who've been directed to our blog to post their talking points on an irrelevant topic.

Anonymous said...

It is clear that NC is looking for a different kind of Change. We've seen it here lately with the actions of the NC House and Senate and we've seen the expected response from our Gov Bev. I look forward to November and expect that the majority of elected democrats in NC this fall will be visitors to our State at the convention. I applaud the moderate Dems and Republicans who tow the line for us independents who want a balance of social programs and limited government.

wt said...

I don't know who Scott Stone is, but he definitely won't beat Ron Paul for mayor of Charlotte.

Anonymous said...

The general consensus is that “the road to the White House leads through NC”, but the fact is NC voters do not have an opportunity to choose presidential candidates because of our late primary. We watch contenders visit nearby SC, but we don’t necessarily become engaged until later in the process. And indeed, some candidates who still may run have not declared yet, so as far as the race for a Republican candidate goes, it is too early to accurately gauge who NC voters would support. However, we know who we DO NOT support, and that is our current president, Barack Obama. His presidency had been a total disaster, even surpassing the dismal reign of Jimmy Carter, which I would have found hard to believe at one time. While North Carolinians may be waiting to commit to the presidential race, we have no reservations about who to support for more local races. Pat McCrory would not have vetoed the bills that the NC General Assembly tried to pass this session to begin correcting the bad policies of over 100 years of Democratic control. As Governors go, Beverly Perdue has been just about as disappointing as Barak Obama. Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx has expanded government and done nothing to help our local economy. His claim to fame has been bringing the DNC to Charlotte, but whether that will be a boom for our economy or a bottomless money pit remains to be seen. Early indications point to the pit. As for NC going bad for Obama, well, Obama went bad for NC first.

Anonymous said...

Well, who let out the dogs. Enough "we hate Obama-ites" here to gag a maggot. Obama is playing the hand he got dealt well enough. He is more attractive than all the Republican tea party White Peoples candidates so far. I thought this was some type of neutral site, but I guess it is very much rightward leaning. We will see what happens.

NRH said...

"I don't know who Scott Stone is, but he definitely won't beat Ron Paul for mayor of Charlotte."

Comment WIN.

 
Web Statistics