Sunday, August 22, 2010

Close Republican race in Florida

The Republican race for Governor in Florida is looking like a tight one as it heads into its final day. Our final poll of the race finds Rick Scott leading Bill McCollum 47-40. That advantage is within the poll's margin of error.

If Scott does indeed come out the winner it will be because he destroyed McCollum's reputation with conservative voters. McCollum is ahead 44-39 with moderates, but Scott has the overall lead thanks to a 50-39 advantage with conservatives. 48% of them have an unfavorable opinion of McCollum to only 37% who see him positively after weeks of Scott's attack ads.

The older and more racially diverse the electorate is on Tuesday the better McCollum's prospects will be. He leads by 13 points with senior citizens, but trails by 16 with voters under 65. He's ahead by 12 points with non white voters, but trails by 12 points with white voters.

Regardless of who emerges as the winner Tuesday night Republicans' chances of holding the Florida Governor's office will have been considerably damaged by this primary campaign. Only 46% of primary voters have a favorable opinion of Scott and just 38% see McCollum in a positive light. They've left GOP voters with mixed feelings about them and Democratic and independent voters with pretty negative ones. Five months ago we would have said Alex Sink looked like a dead duck. Now with the way this contest has unfolded she looks like the favorite.

It should be a close one Tuesday night.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

This poll is garbage. A 7 point margin of error? Did you use a call center full of chimpanzees?

Anonymous said...

You obviously didn't read it. The poll's margin of error is 5.4%.

perry said...

I have the same issue with this poll as anon. How can the margin of error be that large?

We'll surely find out on Tues.

Anonymous said...

A 5.4% margin of error isn't at all abnormal for primary polls.

Rasmus said...

Hey, guys, the margin of error for *all* polls measures the percentage ONE candidate gets, not the *margin* between the candidates, which is obviously twice that.

Brandon K said...

You couldn't at least get 400 respondents? Wow.

John said...

Did you poll the Republican field for 2012 as well?

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Did you poll the Republican field for 2012 as well?"

No, and we wouldn't have in this primary electorate anyway, since it may not be reflective of who might show up in 2 years.

A 5.4% MOE means Scott could be at around 42 and McCollum at 45, or Scott could be at 52 and McCollum at 35.

Anonymous said...

In other words, you want to cover your ass because Mason-Dixon has McCollum leading. And your release says 5.6% MOE for the Republican sample.

Why put out a press release if you're not going to oversample for the primaries? You can't be confident in the result and there's a good chance you'll look incompetent when the result comes in.

wt said...

That a 47-40 poll in favor of Scott could indicate a 3-point margin of victory for McCollum indicates how little we're finding out about the race based on this data.

McCollum will win, of course, the question will be whether the margin will be small enough to explain away this outlier poll.

Anonymous said...

Anyone who truly believes that Rick Scott advocates open government knows nothing about the man's past or present.

wt said...

Wow. I bow before PPP. I am not worthy.

Amazing that you guys called it for Scott. I hope you guys are cracking open the champagne bottles over there.

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