Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Big lead for GOP in Maine

To the list of states where things are looking dreadful for Democrats this fall you can add Maine: Republican Paul LePage leads Democrat Libby Mitchell 43-29 in PPP's first look at the race with independent Eliot Cutler pulling 11%.

The thing drivings the GOP poll advantage in Maine are the same we're seeing everywhere: a unified Republican base, a lack of interest from Democratic voters, a strong GOP lean with independents, and the specter of an unpopular Democratic President and Governor hanging over the heads of the party's candidates.

That last one may be Libby Mitchell's biggest issue. A 51% majority of likely voters for this fall disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing, with only 44% giving him good marks. The outgoing Democratic Governor, John Baldacci, is even less popular with a 57% disapproval mark and only 31% of voters happy with the job he's doing. When the folks planning to vote aren't happy with the job the party in power is doing they tend to put them out and that's what we're seeing in the Gubernatorial race right now.

LePage is winning 75% of Republicans while Mitchell's currently getting only 61% of Democrats. LePage also leads Mitchell 39-21 with independents, with Cutler getting 16%.

Cutler's presence in the race is hurting Mitchell a lot more than it's hurting LePage. He's winning over 15% of Barack Obama's voters but only 6% of those who voted for John McCain.

The same depressed Democratic interest that helped sink the party in the Massachusetts Senate election, as well as last fall's races for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia, is showing itself in Maine. We find those likely to vote in the state supported Barack Obama by a 7 point margin in 2008, in contrast to his actual 17 point victory there. That enthusiasm gap contributes a lot to the margin of LePage's lead but make no mistake- with him winning 76% of McCain voters and Mitchell at only 52% with Obama's he'd be in the lead even if the electorate looked the same as in 2008.

Democrats have an uphill battle in this race and it's another reminder that the party's in trouble in some places no matter how blue they've been the last few election cycles.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

"That last one may be Libby Mitchell's biggest issue."

Libby Mitchell's biggest issue is she's a career political hack who's been part of the problem for DECADES.

She's everything the voters are rejecting, a corrupt tax-and-spend insider.

At least Cutler has some ideas.

Anonymous said...

Did you poll the congressional districts?

Unknown said...

Libby Mithchell is another emir of encumbastan. Throw them all out!

OSUPhantom said...

Have you polled in the two Congressional races and if so is this race having any sort of down ballot effect?

Anonymous said...

ME-2, the more conservative district, looks ripe for a switch.

Anonymous said...

The pollster seems to think that the LePage/Michell/et al. election has something to do with the Obama/McCain election. Except for those who vote for everything along party lines, I think not.

Recovery can be helped along at the Federal level by printing money or diverting funds. The state does not have that option, all a governor can do to help is to be fiscally responsible.

-- jimcooncat

Dustin Ingalls said...

Congressional numbers tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

I hope Paul is getting prepared for the liberal elected and unions in Augusta. The leader may want change but as we have found out the bureaucrats and politicians with the liberal agenda have squashed any effort to modernize government and improve the business climate. Their will need to be a massive house cleaning to get any real change. Thank you Paul for being in the hunt, many of us will support you in the effort.

Anonymous said...

I wonder how this would look if they put John Jenkins name on the poll?

Anonymous said...

I hope Paul LePage can turn Maine around. What a beautiful state to attract people to. We need JOBS up here and LePage knows that. We will all be watching his progress.

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