Monday, November 1, 2010

Florida Gov very close

The Florida Governor's race is too close to call as the election enters its final two days. Alex Sink leads Rick Scott by just a single point at 48-47. Scott has gained over the last three weeks among conservative leaning voters who don't like him but have decided they don't dislike him enough to let a Democrat win.

If Scott does manage to pull it out he'll probably be the country's most unpopular newly elected Governor. Only 34% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him while 54% see him in a negative light. But Republican inclined voters are ultimately putting politics over personality and that's allowed Scott to make gains since our last poll.

Some have wondered, given how closely Scott is polling, if Bill McCollum would have been a shoo in had he been the Republican nominee. He may have had less baggage than McCollum but he doesn't poll any differently, trailing Sink 46-45 in a hypothetical match.

The topline numbers in the Senate race are not all that interesting- Marco Rubio is headed for an easy victory as he has been ever since the primary with 47% to 30% for Charlie Crist and 21% Kendrick Meek.

The most interesting number within the poll, even though it's not translating into extra voters, is Meek's favorability. In early October 35% of voters in the state said they had a positive opinion of Meek to 37% with a negative one. That's shot up now to 42% favorable and 32% unfavorable in just a few weeks time. Voters have responded positively to how Meek has conducted himself through all the speculation about whether he would or would not bring his campaign to a halt.

All the drama over whether Meek would drop out of the race might have been pretty pointless anyway. In a hypothetical head to head match up with Rubio Crist trails by a 48-44 margin. He may very well have lost even if Meek had pulled out.

Crist's political future after what is likely to be a pretty crushing loss tomorrow looks murky. Only 17% of voters in the state say they would definitely support him if he were to seek political office again in the future. That's not a particularly strong base of support and more than twice as many voters as that- 39%- say there's no way they'd vote for Crist in a future campaign. 43% are noncommittal on Crist's future.

Full results here


Rick said...

I think it's time to put Scott into the Beamfire. It's fun to throw candidates into the online Bonfire -

Greg said...

There is something wrong with that Crist boy. I think it is psychological.

Anonymous said...

wow, thats sad. charley crists political "career" is over. probably. i guess he just didnt pander and flip flop enough. no wait, he set a record for that. nevermind.

Anonymous said...

I hope the final score is Meek second -- Crist third.

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