Friday, December 10, 2010

Michigan GOP numbers

John Engler, largely based on superior name recognition, is the top choice of Michigan Republicans to take on Debbie Stabenow in 2012. Among the more likely roster of potential GOP contenders Pete Hoekstra is the leader by a good margin with only Mike Cox also hitting double digits.

31% of Republican voters say Engler would be their first choice, followed by 24% for Hoekstra, and 12% for Cox. Rounding out the Republicans polled is Terri Lynn Land at 7%, Candice Miller at 5%, Mike Rogers at 4%, Thad McCotter at 3%, and Tim Leuliette at 0%. If Leuliette, who has shown the most public interest in running so far, somehow ends up in the Senate he will truly be able to say he started with nothing.

Engler has 72% name recognition and that's the main reason for his early lead. 59% of voters know Land, 58% know Hoekstra and Miller, and just 17% have an opinion about Leuliette. With voters who have an opinion about Hoekstra whether it's positive or negative he's actually the top choice of Republicans by a 32-30 margin over Engler. Given that an Engler candidacy seems very unlikely at this point Hoekstra's probably the early front runner on the Republican side if he decides to get into the race.

The numbers on the Presidential side are emblematic of the paradox that plagues Mitt Romney's potential candidacy: he does better than most Republicans with Democrats and independents, but the GOP base just isn't that enthused about him. The general election part of this poll earlier in the week found Romney trailing Barack Obama by only 4 points when the rest of the GOP hopefuls were all down by double digits. But when it comes to who GOP voters in the state want as their nominee Romney can only muster a tie with Mike Huckabee at 22%, with Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich just a little further back at 18% and 15% respectively. Ron Paul actually hits double digits in Michigan at 10%, with Tim Pawlenty at 3%, Mitch Daniels at 2%, and John Thune at 1% rounding out the Republican field.

Full results here


Jonny V said...

I think it would be very interesting to see what the GOP primary numbers would be without certain candidates included.

For example how would Palin do with Huckabee not included?

It seems to me that most of the Palin & Huckabee supporters would support Palin or Huckabee before Romney ... but that's just a guess - I'd like to see what the poll numbers say.

Perhaps asking who their second choice would be - would be another way of getting at it?

Dustin Ingalls said...

We did do a second-choice question on the last national poll. Scroll down a few pages to find those results.

Jonny V said...

Dustin - found the post (from November 30) ... and it pretty much confirms my guess (although the advantage isn't as strong as I thought it might be)

34% of Huckabee voters going to Palin... 18% for Romney and 16% for Gingrich...

the perfect storm for Palin to win (and as a big Obama supporter - I'm rooting for Palin... to the point where I'm even considering registering as a Republican to voter for her in the primaries) would be Romney, Gingrich, and Pawlenty all in... Huckabee out.

I did see that most Romney voters went for Palin... which I found surprising... and I guess it makes sense that her chances are even higher without Romney ...

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