Monday, December 13, 2010

Voting time...

This weekend we'll do our final polls for 2010. It's been a great year.

One of them will be for North Carolina- if you have any good North Carolina poll question ideas please send them our way.

The other is up for a vote with the finalists that didn't win from last week's poll vote. I'll just paste what we said about each of those states. One thing I should say that I didn't last week- voting 3 or 4 times on different computers is fine. We won't even know you did that. Creating proxies to cast hundreds of votes for a particular state, which I think might have happened with Ohio and Wisconsin last week, is not ok and if someone does that we'll just move on and poll whatever finished second. We like giving the folks who read our blog a voice in what we poll but it's disappointing when people try to really manipulate the vote.

Here are the choices:

-Arizona. This is one of the few states where Obama has any chance of winning one he lost in 2008, and this may be the best opportunity Democrats have for picking up a Senate seat other than Nevada and Massachusetts.

-Florida. We've already polled on Bill Nelson several times looking toward 2012- his approvals aren't great but it's partially because Democrats don't love him that much. He actually has higher than usual appeal to Republicans and independents and as a result has done decently well against the hypothetical opponents we've tested. No harm in taking another look at his prospects though and a first look at how Obama does against named Republicans in the state.

-Nebraska. We already have a pretty good idea that Ben Nelson is in deep, deep trouble but no hurt in getting another set of eyes on it. We can also look at Obama's prospects for winning Omaha again. I'll give up Omaha for Obama if I can have it for UNC's baseball team but I guess it doesn't work that way.

-New Jersey. Tons of polling now makes it clear that Robert Menendez isn't very popular. The question is whether that's 'we don't like you but we'll vote for you over a Republican anyway' unpopularity or if it's 'we don't like you and we're going to put you out of office' unpopularity. Time to put some names up against him.

-Pennsylvania. Potentially close Senate race that we know little about at this point and still one of the biggest Presidential states for sure.

-Texas. A couple questions to ponder here- 1) is this competitive as as an open seat and 2) just how susceptible is Kay Bailey Hutchison to a Tea Party challenge. One thing I'm pretty confident about is Hutchison being invincible in a general election.


Dale Sheldon-Hess said...

For NC:

How about a question to gauge reactions to the instant runoff system used for the one non-partisan, statewide judicial vacancy?

Unknown said...

So if I create a proxy and vote in the hundreds for all the states ahead of the one I want, my state will win?

Tom Jensen said...

No we'll just decide what to poll on our own and stop soliciting input.

Anonymous said...

For NC, if ya'll are doing the gov race again, it might be good to look at a Cooper vs McCrory matchup if Perdue bails like Ritter and Blanco.

wt said...

I voted New Jersey. Would love to get a feeling on how vulnerable Menendez is.

I could see Kean Jr. coming back for another round, or someone like Anna Little challenging him.

Given the fact that we know NJ will elect a Republican over a deeply unpopular Democrat in Christie vs. Corzine, it's possible they'll do the same thing in 2012.

Anonymous said...

North Carolina: Might be interesting to gauge interest in off-shore oil drilling months after the BP Spill. NC has kind of been the bellweather on that issue. Also, are Democrats mad at Bev Perdue or Democrats in general? If the former, Democrats might want to consider Primarying her.

Texas: The Two Tea Party candidates head-to-head with Williams and Medina would be interesting. Wondering if a moderate could come and steal the show.

Anonymous said...

What about for NC, 10 years ago were you a Democrat, Republican, or Independent? And get a breakdown by region?

Is it true that those in Shuler's district are voting more and more Republican?

Anonymous said...

Please poll ND and NE Senate Race

two of reddest states

Anonymous said...

For NC how about polling Roy Cooper's fav/unfavs and testing him in head to heads for NC-Gov 2012. As for miscellanea, favorite NC acc basketball team: UNC, Duke, State, Wake.

Anonymous said...

Kay Bailey Hutchison not rightwing enough for teaparty.

Anonymous said...

Who would you put up against KBH in Texas? There are only 10,000 Republicans waiting for a chance at the Senate.

Red Nats said...

I'm not sure how would you do this, but considering Ehteridge getting tossed out and the easy re-election of Richard Burr, North Carolina might be an interesting state to measure the effect of the "enthusiasm gap" in this past midterm.

kj said...

NJ, I think Kim Guadagno for Senate against Menendez would be an interesting matchup with Menendez. I know you are going to put Christie in. Also check a Booker v. Menendez primary.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Also, are Democrats mad at Bev Perdue or Democrats in general?"

They're still behind Obama.

"I'm not sure how would you do this, but considering Ehteridge getting tossed out and the easy re-election of Richard Burr, North Carolina might be an interesting state to measure the effect of the "enthusiasm gap" in this past midterm."

We've already done that just by showing how much better Democrats are doing in a wider electorate in which Democrats show up.

"Also check a Booker v. Menendez primary."

I think Booker's waiting to beat Christie.

Anonymous said...

Dustin, Tom, are there actually West Virginia numbers on Capito v Manchin? Tom mentioned them the week after the election, but we have yet to see them.

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