Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Obama up big in Rhode Island

If he had to stand for reelection today Barack Obama would likely win Rhode Island! That has to be one of the least interesting findings in the history of PPP, but here goes with the details:

Obama's approval rating is actually a not that spectacular 53/41 spread. That +12 net is 16 points lower than his 28 point margin of victory in the state in 2008. If he had dropped that much nationally his approval rating would be a not so hot 45%, with 54% of voters disapproving of him. But if there's a state where he can withstand that kind of decline in his popularity it's Rhode Island.

His approval rating may only be a +12 spread in the state, but his polling leads over the top quartet of potential Republican Presidential candidates are a lot bigger than that. He's up 17 points on Mitt Romney at 54-37, 25 on Mike Huckabee at 56-31, 33 on Newt Gingrich at 60-27, and a whooping 41 points on Sarah Palin at 65-24. This is another one of Palin's 'Goldwater' states, where her performance would be the worst for a GOP Presidential candidate since 1964. She's not at much risk of actually matching the poorness of Goldwater's performance though- he lost by more than 60 points, garnering only 19% of the vote! That's probably the most interesting thing I found out in the course of polling the 2012 Presidential race in Rhode Island.

The reason Obama's horse race leads are so much larger than his approval spread? Rhode Island voters pretty much hate all the Republicans looking at running for President. Romney comes closest to breaking even at a 41/42 favorability breakdown. But after him the numbers are ugly- a 32/44 spread for Huckabee, a 20/59 one for Gingrich, and a 24/69 one for Palin.

So even if Rhode Island voters aren't that in love with Obama, the alternatives are such that it's one state where he can count on another landslide victory pretty much regardless of the opposition.

Full results here

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

You people are a freckin joke.

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