Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Stabenow looking better

The biggest beneficiaries of the Midwestern backlash toward newly elected Republican Governors might be the Democratic Senators up for reelection in those states next year. Earlier this month we found Herb Kohl and Sherrod Brown in pretty solid shape for reelection in Wisconsin and Ohio respectively, and now Debbie Stabenow's standing is looking much improved from when PPP last polled Michigan in early December.

Stabenow's net approval rating has improved six points to +7 (46/39) from its +1 standing (41/40) in early December. More importantly she now leads all of the Republicans we tested against her by double digits. She's up 10 on former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land at 48-38, 12 on former Congressman Pete Hoekstra at 50-38, 17 on former state GOP chair Saul Anuzis at 52-35, and 19 on announced candidate Randy Hekman at 52-33. The numbers against Land and Hoekstra are most telling because we also tested them against Stabenow in December. Stabenow is now doing 6 points better against Land, having led by only 4 at 45-41 on the previous poll. And she's doing 11 points better against Hoekstra, having led by just a single point at 45-44 on the original survey.

Land is the most compelling of the candidates on the Republican side. She has a 37/19 favorability rating. In addition to being pretty universally well liked within her own party (55/7), she also has very strong numbers with independents (36/19), and comes pretty close to breaking even with Democrats (25/27). With Barack Obama back on the top of the ballot next year Democratic turnout is likely to return to its record levels of 2008 and that means the GOP needs a candidate who can get some crossover votes. Land's chances of doing that appear better than for other Republicans.

Hoekstra has pretty similar numbers to Land with Republicans, as 52% of them rate him favorably to 9% with a negative opinion. But his overall favorability scores are not nearly as strong as hers, with voters nearly evenly divided on him at 30% positive and 28% negative. That's because he doesn't have her appeal across party lines- only 13% of Democrats give him good marks to 40% who see him unfavorably and independents are ambivalent toward him, splitting 31/30.

Saul Anuzis is probably a lot better known to Washington DC journalists than he is to Michigan voters at this point. Only 20% of voters know enough about him to have an opinion and despite his past service as chair of the state GOP just 6% of Republicans in the state rate him positively. He conceivably could prove to be a good candidate if he ran but at this point he's a blank slate. And the same is true with Randy Hekman who only 17% of voters claim an opinion about.

Stabenow's approval numbers still aren't stellar and it would be a surprise if her 2012 reelection proves to be as easy as her 2006 one was- but she's definitely in better shape than at the end of last year.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Approval didn't change, ppartisan composition of electorate projected by this poll, possibly accurately has changed

PoliticalWorldView said...

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Approval didn't change, ppartisan composition of electorate projected by this poll, possibly accurately has changed"

True, but that's a lot of why Obama's approval has fluctuated, and it's the same for any politician. Unless they do something demonstrably bad or good, it's only going to fluctuate a little within each partisan group from month to month. Part of the reason the most popular politicians are so is because they serve states with hugely red or hugely blue populations.

Anonymous said...

I'm hoping that the citizens of this great state aren't stupid enough to actually send that useless individual back to DC again - unless its as a tour guide. WHAT has she done for this state? WHAT has LEVIN done? The same old party line tax and spend liberal rhetoric. WE LIVE HERE - we can do better......


Anonymous said...

In response to "What has she...SPONSORED? The answer is 12 bills, so far, this session, putting her 33rd out of 100 senators. Several of them are pretty darn useful as far as addressing needs, encouraging innovation, boosting the local economy over the next decade, and dealing with emerging problems.

S.738 - Health Outcomes, Planning, and Education for Alzheimer's Act
"A bill to amend title XVIII of the Social Security Act to provide for Medicare coverage of comprehensive Alzheimer's disease and related dementia diagnosis and services in order to improve care and outcomes for Americans living with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias by improving detection, diagnosis, and care planning"

S.734 - Advanced Vehicle Technology Act of 2011
"A bill to provide for a program of research, development, demonstration, and commercial application in vehicle technologies at the Department of Education."

S.471 - Stop Asian Carp Act of 2011
"A bill to require the Secretary of the Army to study the feasibility of the hydrological separation of the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basins"

S.298 - Charging America Forward Act
"A bill to drive American innovation and advanced vehicle manufacturing, to reduce costs for consumers, and for other purposes."

Given that the "opencongress" web site exists, so it takes people maybe 20 seconds to check your assertions, it's sort of silly to make allegations that are not only "not based in fact," but actually, demonstrably false. Oh, and your caps lock is stuck [snark].

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