Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Obama in Vermont

If you're looking for a place to symbolize Barack Obama's dropping poll numbers Vermont might not exactly be the first that comes to mind. And Obama certainly doesn't need to worry about losing the state next year. But his numbers there are considerably weaker than in 2008, reflecting the general bad trend we're seeing for him pretty much everywhere right now.

Obama defeated John McCain by 37 points, 68-31. Now he leads Mitt Romney in the state by only a 20 point margin, 54-34. Suffice it to say if Obama saw a 17 point drop in his margin versus John McCain nationally, as he is in Vermont, he would get blown out in his reelection bid next year.

Obama does worse than he did last time around against the whole rest of the Republican roster of candidates as well, even Sarah Palin. Michele Bachmann does 9 points better than McCain did, trailing by 28 points at 58-30. Rick Perry improves on the McCain margin by 8, trailing by 29 points at 57-28. Herman Cain outperforms McCain by 5, down 32 to Obama at 58-26. And Palin fares 3 points better than McCain, trailing Obama by 34 at 62-28.

Vermont is not going to be a consequential state in the 2012 Presidential race, or maybe any Presidential race ever. But the numbers there are indicative of the extent to which Obama's down everywhere. His approval in the state is 53%, with 40% of voters disapproving. Those are pretty weak numbers in a place where he won with 68% of the vote.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

"But the numbers there are indicative of the extent to which Obama's down everywhere."

I believe this is what they call "begging the question." That is, this is what your comment sets out to prove; doesn't; and then concludes by repeating it.

Rich said...

Generally, undecideds break for the challenger, so it may be much closer in VT than you make it seem.

wt said...

Heavily white states are more susceptible to this phenomenon than others. That's because Obama's approval amongst whites has dropped dramatically. But as you've often pointed out, the drop in his popularity doesn't occur equally in every state.

Statistikhengst said...

Ahem, if you will look at the polling data from 2008 (Obama vs. McCain), there were only 5 commissioned polls for this state.

The last one, released 10/27/08, from R2000, showed Obama with +21 (57 to 36). R2000 grossly underestimated Obama's win here.

Rasmussen from 10/10/2008 had it at Obama +24 (60 to 36), still way under his historic +37 margin.

ARG from 09/23 hard Obama at +18 (56 to 38), 19 spread points under reality.

The earlier R2000 from 09/15 had Obama at +19.

Only SUSA from 9 months before, released on 03/06, pretty much pegged Obama's win in the Granite State.

Facit: Obama vastly outperformed the polls in VT in 2008. So, in light of this economy, I would say +20 over Romney, +28 over Bachmann, +29 over Perry, +32 over Cain and +34 over Palin sure looks like blowout territory to me.

Actually, the poll proves that Obama is still holding VT as a firewall state. Even on his worst day he will still have a margin that is at least 8 points better than Kerry in 2004.

I predict he will easily be at +30 come election day 2012.

Denis said...

Could you comment on Ron Paul's numbers against Obama in the general election match-up in VT?

Thank you.

Anonymous said...

If you drop Sarah Palin from your polls at the end of the month, who will you include in your General Election polls ?

Perry, Romney, Bachmann and ...

Paul ?
Cain ?
Gingrich ?

Will you let us vote ?

I`d like to see Paul and Cain included.

Anonymous said...

"R2000 grossly underestimated Obama's win here."

They also probably grossly fabricated the numbers.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"I`d like to see Paul and Cain included."

We already include Cain.

Web Statistics