Rick Perry is looking increasingly like the Republican favorite for President- he led in the Iowa poll we released this morning and he leads by double digits in the national poll we'll release tomorrow. The biggest beneficiary of Perry's rise? It might be Barack Obama.
In our first national poll pitting the two Obama leads Perry 49-43. That six point advantage is pretty comparable to Obama's margin of victory over John McCain. Perry has certainly come on strong with Republicans but independents view him negatively already by an almost 2:1 margin, 29/55, and Democrats pretty universally give him bad ratings at a 10/71 spread. As a result Obama leads Perry thanks in large part to a 24 point advantage with independents at 56-32.
It's a different story for Obama when it comes to the match up against Romney. There he can only achieve a tie at 45%, and because there are a lot more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all likelihood Romney would come out ahead if voters had to go to the polls and really make a decision today. Romney does better than Perry because he holds Obama to only a 9 point advantage with independents, 48-39, and because he loses only 5% of the Republican vote to Obama where Perry loses 10%.
None of the rest of the Republican hopefuls even fare as well as Perry. Obama leads Michele Bachmann by 8 points at 50-42, Herman Cain by 10 points at 49-39, and Sarah Palin by 13 points at 53-40. This poll is more confirmation of what's become a broad trend in our polling- against Romney Obama faces a toss up and against anyone else he's in decent shape for reelection.
One big reason Obama's doing pretty well in these match ups is the Hispanic vote. Exit polls in 2008 showed him winning it by a 36 point margin over McCain but he builds on that in all of these match ups with a 37 point advantage over Romney at 66-29, a 46 point one over Perry at 72-26, a 48 point edge over Bachmann at 74-26, a 49 point lead on Palin at 74-25, and a 53 point spread on Herman Cain at 75-22. This is a good example of what Republican strategist Mike Murphy has described as the economics vs. demographics tension for next year's election. The economy could sink Obama but at the same time an ever growing expanding Hispanic vote that he wins by a huge margin could be enough to let him eek out a second term. It's certainly propping him up on this poll.
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32 comments:
Why wasn't Ron Paul included in the national polls? PPP's own data for Iowa shows Ron Paul way ahead of Cain.
Where is Ron Paul in your report. This company seems biased.
Why does Cain/Obama get polled but Paul/Obama does not, despite the former's much smaller probability of happening, given Cain's smaller polling and fundraising numbers?
You polled people on Obama vs Herman Cain so why did you not poll Obama vs Ron Paul?
Nice job excluding Ron Paul. Even though he beat Bachmann. Gross.
We include the top 5 people in our national GOP polling. Paul is 7th on the poll we'll release tomorrow.
Incidentally, spamming a blog with comments in favor of your candidate hasn't worked well here in the past.
PPP is one of the few places where Ron Paul style ballot box stuffing doesn't work.
Four interesting things stand out:
- Obama wins at least 10% of McCain voters in all of the match-ups except Romney (where he "only" picks up 8%).
- Palin has extraordinarily low "not sure" figures for her favourables. People seem to have made up their minds about her.
- Gender gap with Perry, Palin, and Bachmann is very similar. Women aren't very impressed, and men break pretty much even.
- Perry loses every age demographic by at least 5 points, except for the 65+ RVs.
Tom, Cain has never been before Paul. That's a patent lie and you know it.
Sorry to say, because apparently you have your head so far up your own ass you've become deaf to the real world, your poll is bullshit and so is your organization.
Just wanted to say, you guys are doing a great job. Ignore the Paul fans, you know they are going to spam regardless. I don't see what is so unbelievable about Paul being so far back, these ARE Republican voters we are talking about.
I am pretty confident that both Perry and Bachmann are over-performing in the polls right now compared to how they would really do in November of 2012 because the general electorate just doesn't pay that much attention... and when they do see what these nuts are about they will respond just as negatively to them as they have to Palin (if not more so.)
Both Perry & Bachmann are even worse than Palin in most respects.
PPP nobody no pollster is more agenda that you guys. You wanted to say Obama is even Romney and in good shape against everybody and so you left out Paul so you didn't have to say even with Romney AND Paul.
I would like to say that I am a Ron Paul supporter, but I don't spam blogs. Not all of us post anonymous, hateful messages. It is the few who do though that give us a bad name.
It is PPP's poll, they spend the money commissioning it, they have every right to include anyone they want to. PPP, even though you are a Democratic pollster, it is pretty much fair and balanced polling. Keep it up. Also, props for allowing all of the comments, positive or negative.
It seems Bachmann is leaving her fifteen minutes behind now, the same way Herman Cain did in his brief bounce earlier this year (anybody else remember that?). The Paultards have known for the last decade who they're backing, but the teabaggers have been running wildly back and forth looking for the latest incarnation of crazy all year. Now that Perry's in, the ordinary wild-eyed radical teabaggers seem to be settling on him while the frothing-at-the-mouth outright lunatics are sticking with Bachmann or hoping for Palin. It doesn't look like there's any new entrants waiting in the wings to displace Perry or Romney, but the frothing kooks might not keep their heads on Bachmann long enough to keep her looking competitive. The Paultards have determination second only to LaRouchies, but also have delusions second only to LaRouchies as well.
Actually, you insult the Hispanic electorate with your comments about the economy that is very bad and that somehow the Hispanics are too stupid to follow the national trend. Your suggestion is that as they grow as a group, they'll just mindlessly vote for the Democrats right or wrong because their skin isn't white.
I think that is a false assumption. Obama's popularity is down on Hispanics and I think that they are not going to vote for him in the same numbers as they did in 2008 (exit polls showed the GOP doing far better with Hispanics in 2010 than in 2012). Also, Hispanics are still only 10% of the electorate so they don't call an election on their own. You're falling into the trap that many pollsters do of micro-managing their polling results. I also think that blacks aren't going to be as hardcore Obama in 2012 as they were in 2008, after the economy has stayed in the tank so badly. I know the Dems like to take the minority vote for granted but Hispanics are still up for grabs.
You left out Ron Paul, in spite of his recent polling numbers (Rasmussen - Ron Paul 38% vs. Obama 39%)and straw poll results.
Your poll is therefore invalid and your organization has no credibility whatsoever.
I hope Ron Paul uses your poll in one of his ads.
PPP is notorious for its DNC agenda. You and CBS are always on the farthest out [and most inaccurate] of all the polls. Do you do your selection of those polled from Dem Party membership lists?
I feel incredibly awful for once having asked a "what about Ron Paul" question in non-ideological curiosity, way back a million years ago before all this crazy started. Oi. Soooooooo sorry.
Keep up the amazing work, and thanks for disseminating your polling and analysis through this blog!
Another useless poll from PPP. Let me give everyone a quick primer in PP polling. They oversample Democrats and undersample Independents (who lean right 2:1) - EVERY SINGLE TIME.
In this poll Independents are undersampled by about 12 points while Democrats are oversampled by 4 points.
This is why their polls ALWAYS LEAN LEFT - ALWAYS.
We can pretty much thank Karl Rove for single-handedly destroying a Bush Presidency that had experienced 6 years of unprecedented prosperity and growth but now is considered by most to have been 8 years of financial disaster for America (which, of course, is a lie).
In other words, no one cares what Karl Rove thinks, except for the Left who gladly accept any advice from a RINO that bashes Republicans.
If you're the Obama campaign, 6 point lead over Perry is encouraging.
Can you guys please start including Ron Paul in your head-to-head match-ups with Obama? He's polling the top four consistently, way ahead of McCain, and he's polled ahead of Perry, Bachmann, and Palin in various polls as well. Come on, give him a shot! :)
PPP has just discredited themselves by not included Ron Paul in their poll, I will no longer view them as an accurate source of data.
This poll can't be taken seriously - this isn't the first time Ron Paul has been excluded. In other (real) polls he's in the top three and within single digits of the leader.
Paul supporters - just move along. PPP ain't gonna come around any time soon. Keep fighting the good fight; don't waste your time here.
Stop it with the stupid Ron Paul comments. For God's sake. Not everything is a "conspiracy." Paul just isn't one of the top Republican candidates right now (according to PPP's national polling) and that's why he's not included. There's no other reason. No conspiracy. I'm sure if Paul qualified as one of the top five Republicans in their polling then PPP would include him.
To Anonymous: Hispanics wouldn't be stupid to not follow the "national trend" if that trend is to vote Republican. They'd be very intelligent. Voting Republican if you're not a millionaire is mind numbingly dumb. And I think what you're calling "national trend" is actually just "while males."
I would not fault PPP if they excluded all candidates perceived to be longshots from general election polls. However, my issue is that PPP does this inconsistently, excluding Paul while including Cain, whose support peaked in June and has an even lower probability of winning the nomination than Paul. Going by the RCP average, Paul has 8.8% support while Cain has 5.0% support. Pollster.com gives Paul 10.4% support while Cain has 4.3% support. The only recent polls to have shown Cain ahead of Paul are Marist (a registered voter poll), Zogby (notorious for its unreliability), and PPP.
The stupidest thing about all of these Paul supporters is, when PPP actually includes Paul in their polls these same supporters scream "bias" because the results don't line up with their pre-conceived ideas.
as usual, hispanic and afro-american vote says clerly the british adagio of the old empire's times : right of wrong is my country, which has been turned into RIGHT OF WRONG IS OBAMA
Rasmussen reported on 8/23 results from an Obama vs. Paul matchup; with Obama barely winning 39%-38%. Perhaps PPP, knowing how close that matchup might be, hesitates to poll it, much less publish it. Hmmmmm!
As for Obama beating Pery 49%-43%, a very important point should be made here to put those numbers into a perspective, whereas a much greater degree of insight to the validity (or lack thereof)of them can be provided the reader.
Gallup, in their poll (of Republican and Republican leaning Independents) - of GOP candidates, have combined name recognition numbers, along with favorable / unfavorable index numbers from those who, in fact, are familiar with the those same candidates.
Of the 11 GOP candidates, identified by Gallup, Perry has one of the lowest name recognition number at 59%. At the same time Perry has the second highest favorable / unfavorable index number at +23%. By comparison, Romney's name recognition number is at 86%, while his favorable / unfavorable index number is at +15%. The fact that Romney currently leads, ties or is within a few points of Obama, as almost all polls (including PPP) have and are showing, speaks volumes for what faces Obama and the Democratic party in 2012.
By the way, has anyone noticed that Obama's approval numbers, as reported by a number of pollsters (including PPP / Daily Kos') are now at an all time record low - and steadily continueing to fall. Apparently, the blame everyone else except Obama game (being played by so many in the Democratic Party)for the current problems in this country is slowly but surely losing steam, along with it's credibility amongst the American people - and will undoubtedly continue to do so, between now and election day. By then, even Sarah Palin would most likely beat Obama. Now wouldn't that be funny.
I understand where economy is... I also do not see a double dip recession. The turmoil in markets is a recaliberation on wall street to realization economy is growing less than expected. However slow growth is not a recession. With politico turmoil, wall street drop, unemployment all in news. I do believe that all the bad news is out there. To just blame this all on Obama's policies is silly. people got in debt big time and it take's time pay off debt. Which people are doing and that wll have happen before economy regrows at healthier pace in future.
Now based on this polling. If Romney wins nomination he does not scare independents nor Democrats. If Perry wins.... Well I will just say if you are supporter of Perry. If you can't see why he would be losing big to independents in this polling and losing to Obama. There is really no way to explain to you why that is....
His style may play well in South but it doesn't in north. What battle ground states is Perry gonna win other than Florida? Complaining polling is rigged is not the problem for Perry.
Say Perry wins and he now has a FED chief his treasury secretary works with. Who Perry called treasonous. That's irresponsible.
Whatever your feelings are about Obama. I will make argument that he doesn't scar you about his policies. You may not like them but Obama has angered alot of folks on left. Will Perry really work to let soc security be left to states to run? That worries people. How will Perry deal with Iran? Obama has had some foreign policy successes you know. If Obama frames Perry as Bush on steroids that is going to scare alot of voters.
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