Carolina Issues Poll

NC Policy Watch has unveiled its Inaugural “Carolina Issues Poll” – conducted by Public Policy Polling! There is a lot of in depth analysis at the NC Policy Watch site. I will only copy the quick take from Rob Schofield here:

NC Policy Watch, North Carolina’s leading provider of commentary and analysis on state public policy issues, has added yet another feature to its fast growing menu of products and services – the “Carolina Issues Poll.”

In the poll’s inaugural edition, Policy Watch sought to gauge the opinion of North Carolina registered voters on two timely and important policy topics: mental health and affordable housing.

Results from the poll show that North Carolinians are broadly supportive of new publicly funded efforts to aid the mentally ill, oppose executing mentally ill persons convicted of murder and support more public efforts to ease the state’s affordable housing and foreclosure crises.

For the complete results of the poll click here (PDF).

A closer look at the smoking ban

North Carolina’s proposed comprehensive smoking ban looks to be in jeopardy. It is being rewritten and weakened because the stronger version didn’t look like it could pass. This has to be a victory for the smoking industry and other interest groups, because taking a closer look at our poll results would show that every constituency group was in favor of the ban.

North Carolina favored the smoking ban 67%-30%.

Women favored the ban 71-26.
Men favored the ban 62-36.

Democrats favored it 68-27.
Republican favored it 63-36.

Whites favored it 62-36.
Blacks favored it 84-9.

Only the 18-29 year-old age group did not favor the ban. At least 65% of every other age group favored it. 18-29 year-olds opposed it 43-57, but I caution to take those numbers with a grain of salt. There are so few 18-29 year-olds in the sample that the margin of error is extremely high.

So practically every group strongly favored the smoking ban. There are very few issues we poll that show this kind of unanimity.

Update: Some more chatter on the poll at The Progressive Pulse.

Voters support smoking ban and more...

According to the latest Public Policy Polling survey North Carolina voters overwhelmingly support a ban on smoking in public places.

Click here for complete results (PDF).

Currently being considered in the legislature is a bill that would ban smoking in restaurants and public places, with very few exemptions. Do you support a ban on smoking in public places?

Support ban 67%
Oppose ban 30%

North Carolina voters also support the government giving tax breaks and financial incentives to companies that are looking to create jobs in the state. However, they feel differently about the recent $260 million deal for Google.

In January the internet company, Google, announced plans to build a data center in Caldwell County. Google will invest nearly 600 million dollars in the facility and it will create more than 200 jobs. Google decided to build in North Carolina after state and local governments offered an estimated 260 million dollars in tax breaks and financial incentives. Do you favor or oppose state and local governments offering 260 million dollars for Google to build in North Carolina?

Favor 36%
Oppose 46%

In addition to Google, North Carolina governments have offered incentives to many other businesses looking to relocate here. In general, do you support or oppose the state offering tax breaks and financial incentives to companies which are looking to create jobs here in the state?

Support 58%
Oppose 30%

Voters also support tax breaks for fuel efficiency…

Do you support the state government giving tax breaks for fuel efficiency? For example, using ethanol fuel.

Support 65%
Oppose 20%

Finally, North Carolina slightly favors two proposals to increase health insurance coverage…

In California, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed a health care plan that would require every individual to buy health insurance. Individuals without health insurance would be required to buy a plan, and at the same time businesses and hospitals would pay fees that would lower the costs for the uninsured. Would you support such a health care plan for North Carolina?

Support 41%
Oppose 35%

The state legislature is also considering a bill to create a statewide high-risk health insurance pool. The insurance pool would sell affordable insurance to people who don’t have health insurance or whose premiums are extremely high because of chronic medical conditions.
Money for the insurance pool would come through higher than normal premiums and through a fee charged to health insurance companies in North Carolina. Would you support such a high-risk insurance pool for North Carolina?

Support 41%
Oppose 36%

Might as well...

...show the other two tracking graphs.

Republican Governor's Race


Republican Presidential Race

North Carolina is mirroring the national tide in the Presidential race. Also Romney, while still in third, has been trending upwards since January.

Richard Moore closes in on Beverly Perdue

The biggest story from our latest tracking poll has to be State Treasurer Richard Moore’s gaining on Lt. Governor Beverly Perdue despite the negatively publicity he has received of late. Perdue had been leading by double-digits in each previous tracking poll as well as a survey we did back in July. For the first time Moore is within ten percentage points and he is, in fact, within the margin of error. Moore narrowed the gap by 6% this month and by 11% over two months.

What I would like to know is why? What has Moore done to improve his position? Is there something going on that I am unaware of? The only idea I can come up with is that all the negatively publicity is actually increasing his name recognition.

If that is the case then it may be a bit of fool’s gold for Moore. By Primary Day, more than a year from now, both candidate’s name ID will be nearly universal among primary voters and this campaign contributions controversy may come back to bite him.

Check out the tracking graph so far. In about six months these graphs could be fascinating.

April Primary Tracking Poll

PPP released today the complete results of its latest 2008 North Carolina Primaries Tracking Poll. Click here for the complete results (PDF).

Republican President

Giuliani 30%
McCain 19%
Romney 14%
Different Candidate 25%

Republican Governor

Graham 17%
Orr 12%
Smith 6%

Democratic President

Edwards 39%
Clinton 25%
Obama 20%
Different Candidate 8%

Democratic Governor

Perdue 33%
Moore 29%

Democratic Lt. Governor

Dalton 13%
Besse 10%
Smathers 9%
Dellinger 6%

Tracking poll sneak preview

The rest of the tracking poll results will be released tomorrow, but here is a sneak preview. John Edwards has received a surge of support in North Carolina in the last month. The surge reflects national trends after Elizabeth Edwards’ cancer announcement.

Edwards 39%
Clinton 25%
Obama 20%

And a new feature is our tracking graph which includes all polls I could get my hands on (PPP, Civitas, etc.).

Cross posted a BlueNC.

Tracking polls preview

We will be in the field with our latest primary tracking polls today. Results will be available later in the week. Here are some things to look for:

1. There will be some changes in the survey’s choices. We’ve decided to eliminate candidates who are not actively campaigning (either announced or unannounced). Say goodbye to Newt Gingrich, Robert Pittenger and Bill Faison. This might have a major impact on the Republican presidential primary as Gingrich had been in a strong second place.

If Pittenger or Faison begin making noise again about running, then we will add them back in. If Fred Thompson shows more concrete signs that he is jumping in the presidential race, then we’ll add him too.

2. How will the Elizabeth Edwards cancer disclosure impact the Democratic primary?

3. Fred Smith tried to make a splash with his official announcement last week and he is supposedly running TV ads now (though I haven’t seen an ad yet, and I watch too much TV). Will it make a difference?

Many think that the reason Bill Graham leads in the polls is the $1 million + he spent on TV ads fighting the gas tax. (Others think it might be that voters misidentify his name with the Rev. Billy Graham.) It is unclear how much Fred Smith is spending on TV, but will the same laws apply? More $ on TV = More support.

Early polling could mean very little

Frank Williams at the NC Republican Roundtable blog reminds us all that early polling can mean very little. He provides us with an example from only three years ago.

...I stumbled upon a July 2004 issue of The Raleigh World...

On page 3 of the publication I found a brief article entitled "A two-man governor's race." The article says, "a new poll suggests that the governor's race in North Carolina -- at least on the Republican side -- has become a two-man race." The article says that the statewide poll, conducted by The Anderson Group, showed Richard Vinroot leading the pack with 26%, followed by Bill Cobey with 22%.

Here's the kicker. The article goes on to say, "the big loser in the survey is Patrick Ballantine, who was thought to be a serious challenger, but who so far has been able to poll only 12 percent."

Just a few short weeks later, Patrick Ballantine emerged as the primary winner, followed closely by Vinroot.

So much for a two-man governor's race.

Bill Graham releases polling numbers

There is lots of juicy polling news in the N&O’s Under the Dome this morning.

First, they report on the USA Today-Gallup Poll that found that most Americans support John Edwards’ decision to continue his campaign in the face of his wife’s cancer. The N&O also highlights a University of Iowa poll showing the revelation of Elizabeth Edwards’s health did not negatively impact his chances in the Iowa caucuses.

Second, and more interestingly, GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Graham released a portion of his own poll. Not surprisingly, the results show him to be in the lead for the 2008 Republican primary. According to the McLaughlin & Associates poll, Graham leads with 16%, Bob Orr is in second with 10% and Fred Smith garners just 3%. The poll was conducted March 19-20.

These results are in line with PPP’s latest tracking poll, but it differs from the last Civitas poll which had Bob Orr in the lead and Graham in third.

McLaughlin & Associates has done polling in North Carolina before for former Senators Lauch Faircloth and Jesse Helms, as well as former Raleigh Mayors Tom Fetzer and Paul Coble.

Update: Apparently we all got scooped by my friend Kris Wampler. His blog has even more on the poll. Among the tidbits, 88% of primary voting Republicans believe that corruption in state government is a problem.