Monday, April 2, 2007

Tracking polls preview

We will be in the field with our latest primary tracking polls today. Results will be available later in the week. Here are some things to look for:

1. There will be some changes in the survey’s choices. We’ve decided to eliminate candidates who are not actively campaigning (either announced or unannounced). Say goodbye to Newt Gingrich, Robert Pittenger and Bill Faison. This might have a major impact on the Republican presidential primary as Gingrich had been in a strong second place.

If Pittenger or Faison begin making noise again about running, then we will add them back in. If Fred Thompson shows more concrete signs that he is jumping in the presidential race, then we’ll add him too.

2. How will the Elizabeth Edwards cancer disclosure impact the Democratic primary?

3. Fred Smith tried to make a splash with his official announcement last week and he is supposedly running TV ads now (though I haven’t seen an ad yet, and I watch too much TV). Will it make a difference?

Many think that the reason Bill Graham leads in the polls is the $1 million + he spent on TV ads fighting the gas tax. (Others think it might be that voters misidentify his name with the Rev. Billy Graham.) It is unclear how much Fred Smith is spending on TV, but will the same laws apply? More $ on TV = More support.


Will Cubbison said...

In other polling news, thought you guys might find this story interesting.

Justin Guillory said...

We do some message testing questions ourselves, so I usually squirm when I hear people throwing around the term "push poll." That means something else.

But in this case you would think a "fair and balanced" media organization wouldn't have a need for that.

Will Cubbison said...

in the cross link by kos there was a very clear distinction between message testing and push polling.

lots of people seem to think any negative question is a push poll, and that just isnt true. I dont have any problem with message testing. I think its essential, especially for a candidate testing whether they want to run or not. But, for a news outlet to do it might be stretching it.

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