Over at Talk Politics Leroy Towns, a political veteran, chimes in on the flaws of the N&O poll.
I agree with his points. Towns also points out that I am not unbiased when criticizing the poll because I am a competing pollster. That's true, but at the same time I am very glad that respected national companies like Rasmussen and Survey USA are polling in North Carolina. I think SUSA will have new numbers tomorrow for the Democratic primaries for Governor and Senate and the Republican primary for Governor and I eagerly anticipate that to see how we're matching up.
I think it's great the McClatchy papers commissioned a poll. I just think they should have picked more carefully, or recognized the limitations of who they hired and only printed numbers they felt were reliable.
Monday, April 7, 2008
N&O Poll
Over at the Dome blog Ryan Beckwith explains the reasoning behind the N&O poll with the headline 'Not a horse race poll.'
But they released the horse race and wrote a whole article about it, so it is a horse race poll.
I think it's great to do more issue focused polling and my advice to the outlets that commissioned this poll would be to just skip the horse race next time.
You should either do it right or not do it at all.
But they released the horse race and wrote a whole article about it, so it is a horse race poll.
I think it's great to do more issue focused polling and my advice to the outlets that commissioned this poll would be to just skip the horse race next time.
You should either do it right or not do it at all.
Democratic Tracking Poll: Senate
Kay Hagan 18
Jim Neal 9
Marcus Williams 5
Duskin Lassiter 2
Howard Staley 2
As usual the undecideds in this race are the main story. The most important thing to note in this race is the news last week that Hagan has a million dollars in the bank. As impressive as Neal's grassroots efforts have been, they haven't created much movement in the numbers. TV creates instantaneous movement. If Hagan has it and Neal doesn't, she should end up winning this primary by a wide margin.
Full results here.
Jim Neal 9
Marcus Williams 5
Duskin Lassiter 2
Howard Staley 2
As usual the undecideds in this race are the main story. The most important thing to note in this race is the news last week that Hagan has a million dollars in the bank. As impressive as Neal's grassroots efforts have been, they haven't created much movement in the numbers. TV creates instantaneous movement. If Hagan has it and Neal doesn't, she should end up winning this primary by a wide margin.
Full results here.
Democratic Tracking Poll: Governor
Bev Perdue 41
Richard Moore 33
Dennis Nielsen 3
Bev Perdue is back up to an eight point lead after falling into a statistical tie with Richard Moore last week.
The major movement in the race over the last three polls has been with the black vote. Two weeks ago Perdue led by 21 points among likely African American voters. Around that time Moore began running advertisements in heavy rotation on radio stations that have large black listenership, and last week that helped him cut Perdue's edge to five points with that group.
Over the last week the Perdue campaign has focused heavily on outreach to likely black voters with a robo call and a direct mail piece touting her endorsement of Barack Obama. Those efforts have paid off with her advantage going back up to 19 points in this survey. That's the biggest difference maker between the numbers last week and this week.
This race will likely continue to fluctuate over the next four weeks. 49% of likely voters said they could change their minds between now and the primary. Perdue has the advantage for now but this race will be won or lost by who runs the most effective campaign from here on out.
Full results here.
Richard Moore 33
Dennis Nielsen 3
Bev Perdue is back up to an eight point lead after falling into a statistical tie with Richard Moore last week.
The major movement in the race over the last three polls has been with the black vote. Two weeks ago Perdue led by 21 points among likely African American voters. Around that time Moore began running advertisements in heavy rotation on radio stations that have large black listenership, and last week that helped him cut Perdue's edge to five points with that group.
Over the last week the Perdue campaign has focused heavily on outreach to likely black voters with a robo call and a direct mail piece touting her endorsement of Barack Obama. Those efforts have paid off with her advantage going back up to 19 points in this survey. That's the biggest difference maker between the numbers last week and this week.
This race will likely continue to fluctuate over the next four weeks. 49% of likely voters said they could change their minds between now and the primary. Perdue has the advantage for now but this race will be won or lost by who runs the most effective campaign from here on out.
Full results here.
Democratic Tracking Poll: President
Barack Obama 54
Hillary Clinton 33
Barack Obama's large lead in North Carolina has really stabilized over the last few weeks. His lead in PPP's tracking poll is now consistently in the 18-21 point range.
One reason may be that Democratic voters want the nomination contest to be over. 43% of likely voters said they were concerned that the drawn out campaign between Clinton and Obama would hurt Democratic prospects this fall. Within that group, Obama has a 29 point lead, which could be an indication that some folks are moving toward his camp because they see a decisive victory for him as a way to end the infighting and shift the focus to John McCain.
Obama continues to do better with white voters than he has in many southern states, trailing Clinton 47-38. He has his customary large advantage with black voters, 81-10. He also has large leads across all age groups except senior citizens, among whom he and Clinton are in a statistical tie.
Full results here
Hillary Clinton 33
Barack Obama's large lead in North Carolina has really stabilized over the last few weeks. His lead in PPP's tracking poll is now consistently in the 18-21 point range.
One reason may be that Democratic voters want the nomination contest to be over. 43% of likely voters said they were concerned that the drawn out campaign between Clinton and Obama would hurt Democratic prospects this fall. Within that group, Obama has a 29 point lead, which could be an indication that some folks are moving toward his camp because they see a decisive victory for him as a way to end the infighting and shift the focus to John McCain.
Obama continues to do better with white voters than he has in many southern states, trailing Clinton 47-38. He has his customary large advantage with black voters, 81-10. He also has large leads across all age groups except senior citizens, among whom he and Clinton are in a statistical tie.
Full results here
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Negative Campaigning in the Governor's Race
In his column today Rob Christensen wrote about how the negativity in the Democratic primary for Governor could hurt the party's prospects this fall.
I certainly wish that the race didn't have the tenor it does. But neither of the candidates has had much choice about it.
Two different polls in February and March showed Richard Moore trailing by 20 or more points. There is no way he could have made up that gap the way he has without relying on negative advertising. He could have kept the race positive- but the result would have been certain defeat.
Once Moore started attacking, Bev Perdue didn't have much choice but to respond. You can't have your opponent muddying the waters about your character without trying to create the same kind of doubts about him. With the race narrowing at a remarkably fast pace, the Perdue campaign would almost certainly lose its lead without responding in kind to Moore's attacks.
Fred Smith's growing gap against Pat McCrory shows what happens when you don't spend money attacking the front runner.
It would have been nice if Moore and Perdue had signed some sort of mutual disarmament pact about negative campaigning from the get go. But barring that, neither has any choice if they want to win the primary. It may be sad, but that's politics.
I certainly wish that the race didn't have the tenor it does. But neither of the candidates has had much choice about it.
Two different polls in February and March showed Richard Moore trailing by 20 or more points. There is no way he could have made up that gap the way he has without relying on negative advertising. He could have kept the race positive- but the result would have been certain defeat.
Once Moore started attacking, Bev Perdue didn't have much choice but to respond. You can't have your opponent muddying the waters about your character without trying to create the same kind of doubts about him. With the race narrowing at a remarkably fast pace, the Perdue campaign would almost certainly lose its lead without responding in kind to Moore's attacks.
Fred Smith's growing gap against Pat McCrory shows what happens when you don't spend money attacking the front runner.
It would have been nice if Moore and Perdue had signed some sort of mutual disarmament pact about negative campaigning from the get go. But barring that, neither has any choice if they want to win the primary. It may be sad, but that's politics.
Bottom Line on the McClatchy Poll
Apparently we can look forward to a story tomorrow about how most voters in North Carolina are undecided in the state's key races. That is true for the Democratic Senate race, but not for the Gubernatorial races on either side and certainly not for the Democratic Presidential race.
Here's the number one piece of information that needs to be released about this poll- of the folks they called who said they were registered to vote in North Carolina, what percentage of them said they intended to vote in the primary?
Whatever that figure is is essentially what the poll is pegging as voter turnout for the primary. We started out with a model that estimated about 20% turnout and switched it a few weeks ago to one that projects about 40% voter turnout.
I'm guessing that the call everyone in the phone book and simply ask them whether they intend to vote or not voter model yields a yes rate of more than 60%, maybe even more than 70%. That's the same as the McClatchy poll being based on a premise of 60-70% voter turnout, which is not even close to realistic.
It's also the reason why the undecideds in their horse race questions are skewed so inaccurately high. If there's little chance that half the people you interview for your poll are actually going to vote in the primary, they probably haven't been following the races closely and that's why they're undecided.
As I said yesterday, I think it's great for media outlets to commission polls. WTVD has it right by working with Survey USA, which is an outstanding political polling company. I look forward to their survey coming out every month. But it's pretty disappointing to see McClatchy not have the sense to hire a political pollster to do a political poll. Look at a google news search for Braun Research and you'll see they specialize in breakfast food and retirement planning, not calling elections. It's unfortunate the News&Observer and Charlotte Observer are splashing a deeply flawed poll all over their front pages.
Here's the number one piece of information that needs to be released about this poll- of the folks they called who said they were registered to vote in North Carolina, what percentage of them said they intended to vote in the primary?
Whatever that figure is is essentially what the poll is pegging as voter turnout for the primary. We started out with a model that estimated about 20% turnout and switched it a few weeks ago to one that projects about 40% voter turnout.
I'm guessing that the call everyone in the phone book and simply ask them whether they intend to vote or not voter model yields a yes rate of more than 60%, maybe even more than 70%. That's the same as the McClatchy poll being based on a premise of 60-70% voter turnout, which is not even close to realistic.
It's also the reason why the undecideds in their horse race questions are skewed so inaccurately high. If there's little chance that half the people you interview for your poll are actually going to vote in the primary, they probably haven't been following the races closely and that's why they're undecided.
As I said yesterday, I think it's great for media outlets to commission polls. WTVD has it right by working with Survey USA, which is an outstanding political polling company. I look forward to their survey coming out every month. But it's pretty disappointing to see McClatchy not have the sense to hire a political pollster to do a political poll. Look at a google news search for Braun Research and you'll see they specialize in breakfast food and retirement planning, not calling elections. It's unfortunate the News&Observer and Charlotte Observer are splashing a deeply flawed poll all over their front pages.
Saturday, April 5, 2008
New Rasmussen Poll
Rasmussen has a new North Carolina poll showing Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 56-33 in the state.
That sounds about right to me. We had it a little less last week but the bottom line is that Obama is winning big time.
One interesting thing in the poll though- they report 56% of Clinton supporters said they would not vote for Obama in the general election. I don't really buy that but even if the number is half of that it's not a good sign.
That sounds about right to me. We had it a little less last week but the bottom line is that Obama is winning big time.
One interesting thing in the poll though- they report 56% of Clinton supporters said they would not vote for Obama in the general election. I don't really buy that but even if the number is half of that it's not a good sign.
A suspect poll
The Charlotte Observer, News&Observer, and two North Carolina tv stations teamed up for a detailed poll on the primary in North Carolina. The poll was conducted by Braun Research, which Justin Guillory profiled when he was still at PPP, and apparently does little election or campaign polling.
In one sense the poll is a good thing because they were able to delve a little more deeply into voters' attitudes toward the race and the candidates than most public polling on the race has so far.
At the same their horse race results make no sense, and unfortunately that casts a bit of a pall over the worthwhileness of the entire poll.
In the Presidential race it shows a 35-26 lead for Barack Obama among 'likely' voters and that 39% undecided rate really makes me wonder how seriously any of the poll can be taken.
Five different companies that specialize in elections- PPP, Survey USA, Rasmussen, ARG, and Insider Advantage- have released polls on the North Carolina race in the last month and the undecideds in those polls ranged from 4% to 17%.
It has been months, maybe over a year, since I saw any poll in any state that used any sort of likely primary voter model that showed this level of undecideds.
In the race for Governor they show Richard Moore leading Bev Perdue 25-19. I'm not necessarily surprised that Moore is in the lead considering the recent direction of the race, but the poll showing over 50% undecideds is a major red flag. That just is not correct.
In the US Senate race they have Kay Hagan at 10%, Jim Neal at 3%, Marcus Williams at 2%, and Duskin Lassiter and Howard Staley at 1%. Again, 60% undecided in that race? Sure. 80% undecided in that race? No.
I think the fatal flaw with this poll is the 'likely voter' model or relative lack thereof. It looks like they called everyone in the phone book irregardless of voting history and simply asked them if they're going to vote.
The problem with that is that virtually everyone is going to tell an interviewer they intend to vote, even if they don't really.
Most good election pollsters either call folks based on voting history to identify likely primary voters, or ask a series of questions to really nail down whether someone intends to vote instead of asking a simple yes or no.
My problem with this poll is the same as my problem with when the Elon Poll releases horse race numbers. If you're going to do the horse race and pretend like your numbers matter, you need to try to get the poll to really reflect what you expect to happen at the polls on election day. Either stick to the issues and skip the horse race, or employ a legitimate likely voter model so your horse race numbers make some sense.
Here are the poll questions and poll results.
I certainly hope the McClatchy papers will not start reporting these numbers like they're the gospel truth. Because the simple reality is that they are wrong.
Other issues with the poll:
-Unless I missed it they did not release the topline demographics. I would be interested to know if their racial, gender, and age distributions are anywhere in the ballpark of where they should be.
-Where are the full crosstabs? Media polls should be a beacon of transparency but I do not see these on the website of any of the four outlets that commissioned this.
In one sense the poll is a good thing because they were able to delve a little more deeply into voters' attitudes toward the race and the candidates than most public polling on the race has so far.
At the same their horse race results make no sense, and unfortunately that casts a bit of a pall over the worthwhileness of the entire poll.
In the Presidential race it shows a 35-26 lead for Barack Obama among 'likely' voters and that 39% undecided rate really makes me wonder how seriously any of the poll can be taken.
Five different companies that specialize in elections- PPP, Survey USA, Rasmussen, ARG, and Insider Advantage- have released polls on the North Carolina race in the last month and the undecideds in those polls ranged from 4% to 17%.
It has been months, maybe over a year, since I saw any poll in any state that used any sort of likely primary voter model that showed this level of undecideds.
In the race for Governor they show Richard Moore leading Bev Perdue 25-19. I'm not necessarily surprised that Moore is in the lead considering the recent direction of the race, but the poll showing over 50% undecideds is a major red flag. That just is not correct.
In the US Senate race they have Kay Hagan at 10%, Jim Neal at 3%, Marcus Williams at 2%, and Duskin Lassiter and Howard Staley at 1%. Again, 60% undecided in that race? Sure. 80% undecided in that race? No.
I think the fatal flaw with this poll is the 'likely voter' model or relative lack thereof. It looks like they called everyone in the phone book irregardless of voting history and simply asked them if they're going to vote.
The problem with that is that virtually everyone is going to tell an interviewer they intend to vote, even if they don't really.
Most good election pollsters either call folks based on voting history to identify likely primary voters, or ask a series of questions to really nail down whether someone intends to vote instead of asking a simple yes or no.
My problem with this poll is the same as my problem with when the Elon Poll releases horse race numbers. If you're going to do the horse race and pretend like your numbers matter, you need to try to get the poll to really reflect what you expect to happen at the polls on election day. Either stick to the issues and skip the horse race, or employ a legitimate likely voter model so your horse race numbers make some sense.
Here are the poll questions and poll results.
I certainly hope the McClatchy papers will not start reporting these numbers like they're the gospel truth. Because the simple reality is that they are wrong.
Other issues with the poll:
-Unless I missed it they did not release the topline demographics. I would be interested to know if their racial, gender, and age distributions are anywhere in the ballpark of where they should be.
-Where are the full crosstabs? Media polls should be a beacon of transparency but I do not see these on the website of any of the four outlets that commissioned this.
Friday, April 4, 2008
The Libertarian Creed
Less government, more road signs?
That's what I've been wondering with the recent proliferation of signs for Republican/Libertarian Congressional candidate BJ Lawson, who is facing Augustus Cho in the primary for the right to be David Price's sacrificial lamb this fall.
It was one thing when they started sprouting up on the main drags in Chapel Hill. But tonight I saw a bunch of them while driving out to the UNC baseball team's temporary home in the boonies of Cary. There were no signs for any other candidates anywhere else in that vicinity.
The Ron Paul Republican/Libertarian Presidential campaign was of course also known for its sign placing prowess.
Speaking of which, I was doing an interview with KDKA in Pittsburgh Wednesday night about our latest Pennsylvania poll when the host cut me short and told me they needed to bring on their next guest...which was none other than Ron Paul! Couldn't blame him for booting me for that.
That's what I've been wondering with the recent proliferation of signs for Republican/Libertarian Congressional candidate BJ Lawson, who is facing Augustus Cho in the primary for the right to be David Price's sacrificial lamb this fall.
It was one thing when they started sprouting up on the main drags in Chapel Hill. But tonight I saw a bunch of them while driving out to the UNC baseball team's temporary home in the boonies of Cary. There were no signs for any other candidates anywhere else in that vicinity.
The Ron Paul Republican/Libertarian Presidential campaign was of course also known for its sign placing prowess.
Speaking of which, I was doing an interview with KDKA in Pittsburgh Wednesday night about our latest Pennsylvania poll when the host cut me short and told me they needed to bring on their next guest...which was none other than Ron Paul! Couldn't blame him for booting me for that.
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