Monday, April 7, 2008

Democratic Tracking Poll: Governor

Bev Perdue 41
Richard Moore 33
Dennis Nielsen 3

Bev Perdue is back up to an eight point lead after falling into a statistical tie with Richard Moore last week.

The major movement in the race over the last three polls has been with the black vote. Two weeks ago Perdue led by 21 points among likely African American voters. Around that time Moore began running advertisements in heavy rotation on radio stations that have large black listenership, and last week that helped him cut Perdue's edge to five points with that group.

Over the last week the Perdue campaign has focused heavily on outreach to likely black voters with a robo call and a direct mail piece touting her endorsement of Barack Obama. Those efforts have paid off with her advantage going back up to 19 points in this survey. That's the biggest difference maker between the numbers last week and this week.

This race will likely continue to fluctuate over the next four weeks. 49% of likely voters said they could change their minds between now and the primary. Perdue has the advantage for now but this race will be won or lost by who runs the most effective campaign from here on out.

Full results here.

No comments:

Web Statistics