We've been in the field in Florida and Michigan for a few hours now and there's no doubt that Sarah Palin is quite the hit- around 65% of people (in the unweighted counts) who say the Palin choice is influencing them one way or the other are saying it makes them more likely to vote for John McCain.
Here's the thing though: the topline number on whether Palin makes voters more likely to choose McCain or not is meaningless: it's all in the crosstabs. If all the folks saying they like her are Republicans, I'm pretty sure they were voting for McCain anyway. I always thought the discussion of how evangelicals might stay home this year was kind of wishful thinking on behalf of the Democrats- I believe they would have turned out in November to vote for the lesser of two evils even if they weren't thrilled about it. Palin might make them more excited to vote for McCain, but an excited vote counts just the same as an unexcited one, which is of course why Barack Obama isn't blowing McCain out of the water at this point.
We'll be looking carefully when we release these polls not at the toplines on the Palin pick, but how she's playing with independents and Democratic women.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Friday, September 5, 2008
Next Week
The conventions have certainly been interesting but I am glad that it is now time to get back to state by state polling! We will have new surveys next week in Michigan, Florida, and Colorado.
In addition of course to the horse race, we'll take a look at how voters in each of those states are perceiving the choices of Sarah Palin and Joe Biden. In Florida we'll also run Ron Klein and Allen Boyd against Mel Martinez in what I think is going to be the end of our 2010 Senate testing between now and November so that we can focus everything on the more immediate races. In Colorado we're asking voters there whether hosting the convention turned them on to or turned them off from the Democrat ticket, and in Michigan we'll ask Obama supporters and undecideds if Mitt Romney on the ticket could have changed their votes.
Stay tuned!
In addition of course to the horse race, we'll take a look at how voters in each of those states are perceiving the choices of Sarah Palin and Joe Biden. In Florida we'll also run Ron Klein and Allen Boyd against Mel Martinez in what I think is going to be the end of our 2010 Senate testing between now and November so that we can focus everything on the more immediate races. In Colorado we're asking voters there whether hosting the convention turned them on to or turned them off from the Democrat ticket, and in Michigan we'll ask Obama supporters and undecideds if Mitt Romney on the ticket could have changed their votes.
Stay tuned!
Thursday, September 4, 2008
What Bev needs to do
So the election is now less than two months away, and the race for Governor is much closer than anyone expected. Here's what I think needs to happen for Bev Perdue to pull away in the next two months:
-We need to see more of Bev. Most voters in the state have probably not heard a word out of Bev's mouth since the primary. While Pat McCrory was up on the air in August telling us personally what he was going to do to help our pocketbooks (even if it's mularkey) the ads running on Perdue's behalf were almost all of the 'sinister voiceover' variety. Perdue's best run of this entire campaign was the three weeks leading up to the primary when her ads were heavily focused on herself talking about what she was going to do if she was elected. I think the most effective way Perdue can be presented these last two months is in ads where she's talking the whole thirty seconds about what she'll do if elected on pocketbook issues, health care, and education. Sometimes going back to basics is the best course of action. When people see and hear Bev, most of them like her. Put that reality to good use.
-Attacks on McCrory need to have more of a human face put on them. The strategy the Perdue campaign and the Alliance for North Carolina seem to be independently pursuing of exposing McCrory not to be the moderate he purports to be is the right one, particularly when it comes to winning over Democrats in the voter heavy Charlotte media market who might be looking at splitting their ballots right now. But all the negative ads that ran in August seem to have fallen flat. I think the attacks on McCrory need to feature real people talking about how his leadership as Governor would be a bad thing for them personally and the state of North Carolina. Instead of having voiceover man talking about vouchers being bad, how about having a school teacher tell us. If we want to make an issue of McCrory opposing raising the minimum wage while taking trips to Paris, let's hear a low wage worker talk about how he has the wrong priorities. I don't think voters tend to trust a faceless voice telling them not to like a politician, but if they hear it from someone who looks like their neighbor it may be a different story- finding ways to go after McCrory's record and issue stances that really resonate with voters will be key moving forward.
-Court black voters hard. The Perdue campaign did a tremendous job in the primary of reaching out to black voters through robocalls, direct mail, and radio. While it may be tempting to just assume that everyone turning out to vote for Obama this fall will fill in the straight ticket oval, I think it's dangerous to take that for granted. Our polling is showing a surprising number of black voters reporting as undecided in the races other than President. I'm sure many of those folks will end up voting the Democratic ticket, but better safe than sorry- go back to the outreach efforts that worked so well against Moore. And it sure would be great if the Democratic Party could get Barack Obama to record some calls reminding folks they need to vote for Perdue, Kay Hagan, and the entire Democratic ticket as long as they're casting their ballots for him.
That's my big three for now. The Perdue campaign had a bad August, just as it had a bad March during the primary. But they bounced back in April with a tremendous effort over the last three weeks of the race to win by a large margin- they are more than capable of doing that again, but it may take some changes from the current direction of the campaign to make it a reality.
-We need to see more of Bev. Most voters in the state have probably not heard a word out of Bev's mouth since the primary. While Pat McCrory was up on the air in August telling us personally what he was going to do to help our pocketbooks (even if it's mularkey) the ads running on Perdue's behalf were almost all of the 'sinister voiceover' variety. Perdue's best run of this entire campaign was the three weeks leading up to the primary when her ads were heavily focused on herself talking about what she was going to do if she was elected. I think the most effective way Perdue can be presented these last two months is in ads where she's talking the whole thirty seconds about what she'll do if elected on pocketbook issues, health care, and education. Sometimes going back to basics is the best course of action. When people see and hear Bev, most of them like her. Put that reality to good use.
-Attacks on McCrory need to have more of a human face put on them. The strategy the Perdue campaign and the Alliance for North Carolina seem to be independently pursuing of exposing McCrory not to be the moderate he purports to be is the right one, particularly when it comes to winning over Democrats in the voter heavy Charlotte media market who might be looking at splitting their ballots right now. But all the negative ads that ran in August seem to have fallen flat. I think the attacks on McCrory need to feature real people talking about how his leadership as Governor would be a bad thing for them personally and the state of North Carolina. Instead of having voiceover man talking about vouchers being bad, how about having a school teacher tell us. If we want to make an issue of McCrory opposing raising the minimum wage while taking trips to Paris, let's hear a low wage worker talk about how he has the wrong priorities. I don't think voters tend to trust a faceless voice telling them not to like a politician, but if they hear it from someone who looks like their neighbor it may be a different story- finding ways to go after McCrory's record and issue stances that really resonate with voters will be key moving forward.
-Court black voters hard. The Perdue campaign did a tremendous job in the primary of reaching out to black voters through robocalls, direct mail, and radio. While it may be tempting to just assume that everyone turning out to vote for Obama this fall will fill in the straight ticket oval, I think it's dangerous to take that for granted. Our polling is showing a surprising number of black voters reporting as undecided in the races other than President. I'm sure many of those folks will end up voting the Democratic ticket, but better safe than sorry- go back to the outreach efforts that worked so well against Moore. And it sure would be great if the Democratic Party could get Barack Obama to record some calls reminding folks they need to vote for Perdue, Kay Hagan, and the entire Democratic ticket as long as they're casting their ballots for him.
That's my big three for now. The Perdue campaign had a bad August, just as it had a bad March during the primary. But they bounced back in April with a tremendous effort over the last three weeks of the race to win by a large margin- they are more than capable of doing that again, but it may take some changes from the current direction of the campaign to make it a reality.
Congress tabs from Democracy Corps
One thing the Democracy Corps poll asked was who people would support for Congress in each district of the state. The sample sizes on these are pretty small (51-86 respondents per CD) so should be taken with a bit of a grain of salt but they still tell an interesting story:
-Folks who have leads over 15 points include G.K. Butterfield, Bob Etheridge, Walter Jones, David Price, Howard Coble, Mike McIntyre, Sue Myrick, and Heath Shuler. Shuler has a remarkable 66-27 advantage. It's amazing how quickly a district can become 'safe,' but that's sort of the choice the Republicans made by nominating Carl Mumpower. Unless I'm missing something it doesn't look like the 12th and 13th district crosstabs are on the report but I am pretty comfortable saying that Mel Watt and Brad Miller will be reelected this fall.
-The closest Congressional district in the state is the 5th, where Virginia Foxx leads Roy Carter 48-46. I really hope the DCCC and other folks take the pick up opportunity in this district seriously. There are races on the Red to Blue list that based on the data I've seen are less winnable than this one. Carter is a uniquely appealing candidate and has the opportunity to pull off the same kind of shocker Larry Kissell almost did in 2006 if he gets the resources he needs to run the strongest campaign possible.
-In the 8th District they show Robin Hayes up 50-42 on Larry Kissell- I think it's a little closer than that right now but that's simply a sample size issue. Same thing in the 10th District where Daniel Johnson trails Patrick McHenry 54-39 based on 65 interviews.
This data is on page 11 of the crosstabs.
-Folks who have leads over 15 points include G.K. Butterfield, Bob Etheridge, Walter Jones, David Price, Howard Coble, Mike McIntyre, Sue Myrick, and Heath Shuler. Shuler has a remarkable 66-27 advantage. It's amazing how quickly a district can become 'safe,' but that's sort of the choice the Republicans made by nominating Carl Mumpower. Unless I'm missing something it doesn't look like the 12th and 13th district crosstabs are on the report but I am pretty comfortable saying that Mel Watt and Brad Miller will be reelected this fall.
-The closest Congressional district in the state is the 5th, where Virginia Foxx leads Roy Carter 48-46. I really hope the DCCC and other folks take the pick up opportunity in this district seriously. There are races on the Red to Blue list that based on the data I've seen are less winnable than this one. Carter is a uniquely appealing candidate and has the opportunity to pull off the same kind of shocker Larry Kissell almost did in 2006 if he gets the resources he needs to run the strongest campaign possible.
-In the 8th District they show Robin Hayes up 50-42 on Larry Kissell- I think it's a little closer than that right now but that's simply a sample size issue. Same thing in the 10th District where Daniel Johnson trails Patrick McHenry 54-39 based on 65 interviews.
This data is on page 11 of the crosstabs.
More from the Democracy Corps Poll
Here are some other things I found interesting in the Democracy Corps poll:
-Richard Burr has only 61% name recognition. By comparison it's 90% for Elizabeth Dole. That just seems remarkably low to me for an incumbent Senator in a likely voters poll, and it's more confirmation that his incumbency advantage in 2010 might not be as strong as it is for most Senators. This follows on the heels of a poll we did in June that found 47% of North Carolinians have no opinion on his job performance one way or the other. Paging Grier Martin and Roy Cooper...
-57% of North Carolinians have unfavorable feelings toward John Edwards now. That's not a surprise, but it's the first data I've seen on it since the Rielle Hunter revelations.
-7% of North Carolinians think Barack Obama is a Muslim. Not sure what to make of that one way or the other.
I have at least one more post about this poll and am just really glad they did it. It's very rare that this much data is made publicly available from a survey.
-Richard Burr has only 61% name recognition. By comparison it's 90% for Elizabeth Dole. That just seems remarkably low to me for an incumbent Senator in a likely voters poll, and it's more confirmation that his incumbency advantage in 2010 might not be as strong as it is for most Senators. This follows on the heels of a poll we did in June that found 47% of North Carolinians have no opinion on his job performance one way or the other. Paging Grier Martin and Roy Cooper...
-57% of North Carolinians have unfavorable feelings toward John Edwards now. That's not a surprise, but it's the first data I've seen on it since the Rielle Hunter revelations.
-7% of North Carolinians think Barack Obama is a Muslim. Not sure what to make of that one way or the other.
I have at least one more post about this poll and am just really glad they did it. It's very rare that this much data is made publicly available from a survey.
Democracy Corps Poll
When we put out our poll last week showing Kay Hagan with a lead on Elizabeth Dole, I was 100% comfortable with it. We interviewed more than enough people, our demographic breakdown easily passed the smell test, and her relatively weak standing with black voters in the poll seemed like an indication that she was actually doing better even than our poll indicated.
But it's always nice to get some confirmation and a new Democracy Corps poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner gives it. Hagan leads 50-45. And Elizabeth Dole's approval rating is down to 38%. We showed it in the mid-40s for most of last year so it's another indication of the corrosive impact the DSCC ads have had on the way voters view her.
They also show John McCain leading Barack Obama by three points, the same result we've found the last couple months.
More less than good polling news for Bev Perdue. She's knotted with Pat McCrory at 46-46. This is the first survey not to show Perdue at least with a small lead since we put out one showing the race tied about one week after the primary. I have some thoughts on what I think she needs to do differently moving forward that I'll write up this afternoon.
There's an enormous amount of material in this poll, and I'll delve into it some more later. For now here's the link. Kudos to Democracy Corps both for releasing the entire survey and for being transparent about their topline demographics- that's something that should be expected for every public poll.
But it's always nice to get some confirmation and a new Democracy Corps poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner gives it. Hagan leads 50-45. And Elizabeth Dole's approval rating is down to 38%. We showed it in the mid-40s for most of last year so it's another indication of the corrosive impact the DSCC ads have had on the way voters view her.
They also show John McCain leading Barack Obama by three points, the same result we've found the last couple months.
More less than good polling news for Bev Perdue. She's knotted with Pat McCrory at 46-46. This is the first survey not to show Perdue at least with a small lead since we put out one showing the race tied about one week after the primary. I have some thoughts on what I think she needs to do differently moving forward that I'll write up this afternoon.
There's an enormous amount of material in this poll, and I'll delve into it some more later. For now here's the link. Kudos to Democracy Corps both for releasing the entire survey and for being transparent about their topline demographics- that's something that should be expected for every public poll.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
McCrory, Obama, and Charlotte
In 2004 Mike Easley won the vote in the 8th and 10th Congressional Districts, both dominated by the Charlotte media market, by an average of 6%. He did so even as John Kerry lost them by an average of 23 points to George W. Bush. In other words Easley outran Kerry by 29%.
This year it's a completely different story. Barack Obama appears primed to do much better in these two districts than Kerry did. He currently trails in them by an average of 11 points. For Bev Perdue the news is not so good. Pat McCrory has an average 14% advantage.
The reason McCrory is doing so much better than Patrick Ballantine did here is a strong standing with white Democrats. In our June 10th District poll Perdue led just 56-32 among voters in that demographic. The 8th District survey we released yesterday had Perdue up 57-31 with them. It is not a stretch to think Mike Easley won support from 80% or more of these voters in his runs for Governor.
McCrory's overwhelming appeal in the greater Charlotte area is the reason this race is so competitive in a Democratic year. The Perdue campaign is either going to have to effectively take the shine off McCrory's moderate veneer to turn the Democratic and independent voters in that region back into her column, or she's going to have to rely on Obama's machine bringing out exceptional turnout in the other urban centers of the state.
You know it's a new world order in North Carolina when the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, rather than running away from the Presidential nominee, may need his help to be elected.
As for Obama, his improved poll numbers in these districts show that it's an oversimplification to think his success is completely reliant on increased black turnout. The 10th District has a minuscule minority population yet Obama is running about ten points better there than John Kerry did. As the economy becomes a bigger and bigger issue in voters' minds, more are moving toward supporting the Democrat for President, white or black.
We are going to have three very competitive statewide races this fall.
This year it's a completely different story. Barack Obama appears primed to do much better in these two districts than Kerry did. He currently trails in them by an average of 11 points. For Bev Perdue the news is not so good. Pat McCrory has an average 14% advantage.
The reason McCrory is doing so much better than Patrick Ballantine did here is a strong standing with white Democrats. In our June 10th District poll Perdue led just 56-32 among voters in that demographic. The 8th District survey we released yesterday had Perdue up 57-31 with them. It is not a stretch to think Mike Easley won support from 80% or more of these voters in his runs for Governor.
McCrory's overwhelming appeal in the greater Charlotte area is the reason this race is so competitive in a Democratic year. The Perdue campaign is either going to have to effectively take the shine off McCrory's moderate veneer to turn the Democratic and independent voters in that region back into her column, or she's going to have to rely on Obama's machine bringing out exceptional turnout in the other urban centers of the state.
You know it's a new world order in North Carolina when the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, rather than running away from the Presidential nominee, may need his help to be elected.
As for Obama, his improved poll numbers in these districts show that it's an oversimplification to think his success is completely reliant on increased black turnout. The 10th District has a minuscule minority population yet Obama is running about ten points better there than John Kerry did. As the economy becomes a bigger and bigger issue in voters' minds, more are moving toward supporting the Democrat for President, white or black.
We are going to have three very competitive statewide races this fall.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
NC 8: Good news for Obama and Hagan, not for Perdue
Barack Obama 43
John McCain 43
Bob Barr 5
In 2004 George W. Bush beat John Kerry 55-44 in this district, so Barack Obama keeping it tied at this point is just another indication of North Carolina's virtual swing state status this year. The folks undecided for President right now are a Democratic leaning bunch- they support Kay Hagan, Bev Perdue, and Larry Kissell. Evidently they have some doubts about Obama but given their overall voting preferences it would seem he has a leg up.
Kay Hagan 45
Elizabeth Dole 41
Christopher Cole 3
Just more evidence of how this race has been fundamentally altered over the last month. Dole won the district 51-48 in 2002. Hagan is getting almost as much Republican support (15%) as Dole is Democratic support (17%). Given the state's overall Democratic lean Hagan would coast to victory if that held up statewide.
Pat McCrory 43
Bev Perdue 40
Michael Munger 4
Not good news for the Democratic candidate, though not necessarily surprising news either given that a lot of this district is her opponent's home turf. The last time the Governor's seat was open Mike Easley beat Richard Vinroot 53-44 in this district. McCrory is getting 21% of the Democratic vote in this district that includes a lot of territory in the Charlotte media market. Perdue will improve her standing if she can pick up most of the support of the 20% of black voters who are currently undecided.
Full results here.
John McCain 43
Bob Barr 5
In 2004 George W. Bush beat John Kerry 55-44 in this district, so Barack Obama keeping it tied at this point is just another indication of North Carolina's virtual swing state status this year. The folks undecided for President right now are a Democratic leaning bunch- they support Kay Hagan, Bev Perdue, and Larry Kissell. Evidently they have some doubts about Obama but given their overall voting preferences it would seem he has a leg up.
Kay Hagan 45
Elizabeth Dole 41
Christopher Cole 3
Just more evidence of how this race has been fundamentally altered over the last month. Dole won the district 51-48 in 2002. Hagan is getting almost as much Republican support (15%) as Dole is Democratic support (17%). Given the state's overall Democratic lean Hagan would coast to victory if that held up statewide.
Pat McCrory 43
Bev Perdue 40
Michael Munger 4
Not good news for the Democratic candidate, though not necessarily surprising news either given that a lot of this district is her opponent's home turf. The last time the Governor's seat was open Mike Easley beat Richard Vinroot 53-44 in this district. McCrory is getting 21% of the Democratic vote in this district that includes a lot of territory in the Charlotte media market. Perdue will improve her standing if she can pick up most of the support of the 20% of black voters who are currently undecided.
Full results here.
NC 8: Hayes continues small lead
Robin Hayes 44 Larry Kissell 39
There has been virtually no movement in the 8th District Congressional race since July, when PPP found Hayes leading by six points.
Kissell, despite a tv advertising campaign, is still mostly undefined with the electorate of the district. 28% of voters view him favorably, 23% view him unfavorably, and 49% still have no opinion.
Even when it comes to the job performance of Hayes, a ten year incumbent, there's a high level of ambiguity. 38% approve of him, 31% disapprove, and 30% have no opinion.
Here's the good news for Kissell in the poll:
-59% of the undecideds are Democrats while just 13% are Republicans. If he can ensure that his partisans vote the entire ballot and not just for the marquee offices, he'll be in much better shape. Taking it a step further, 40% of the undecideds are African Americans who tend to actually vote much more Democratic than registered white Democrats who often cross over to support Republicans in some races, especially for federal offices.
Here's the good news for Hayes in the poll:
-He's getting the support of almost 20% of Democrats in the poll, something he'll need to win reelection in this district where party identification overwhelmingly favors the opposing party. He's also got nearly unanimous support from his fellow Republicans, and a 43-27 advantage with independent voters in the district.
This contest looks like it will be close again as it was in 2006. Kissell just needs to do a better job of shoring up support from his party's base voters and the contest virtually becomes a tie.
Who wins this seat may eventually come down not so much to anything having to do with Robin Hayes or Larry Kissell, but just how much Barack Obama is able to increase turnout in heavily black Charlotte precincts.
Note: Thomas Hill, former Libertarian candidate, was included in this poll and received 4%. I think you can safely consider those who expressed support for him to be in the undecided category with him out of the race.
Full results here.
There has been virtually no movement in the 8th District Congressional race since July, when PPP found Hayes leading by six points.
Kissell, despite a tv advertising campaign, is still mostly undefined with the electorate of the district. 28% of voters view him favorably, 23% view him unfavorably, and 49% still have no opinion.
Even when it comes to the job performance of Hayes, a ten year incumbent, there's a high level of ambiguity. 38% approve of him, 31% disapprove, and 30% have no opinion.
Here's the good news for Kissell in the poll:
-59% of the undecideds are Democrats while just 13% are Republicans. If he can ensure that his partisans vote the entire ballot and not just for the marquee offices, he'll be in much better shape. Taking it a step further, 40% of the undecideds are African Americans who tend to actually vote much more Democratic than registered white Democrats who often cross over to support Republicans in some races, especially for federal offices.
Here's the good news for Hayes in the poll:
-He's getting the support of almost 20% of Democrats in the poll, something he'll need to win reelection in this district where party identification overwhelmingly favors the opposing party. He's also got nearly unanimous support from his fellow Republicans, and a 43-27 advantage with independent voters in the district.
This contest looks like it will be close again as it was in 2006. Kissell just needs to do a better job of shoring up support from his party's base voters and the contest virtually becomes a tie.
Who wins this seat may eventually come down not so much to anything having to do with Robin Hayes or Larry Kissell, but just how much Barack Obama is able to increase turnout in heavily black Charlotte precincts.
Note: Thomas Hill, former Libertarian candidate, was included in this poll and received 4%. I think you can safely consider those who expressed support for him to be in the undecided category with him out of the race.
Full results here.
People lie to pollsters
Something really jumped out at me in the CBS News poll that came out yesterday- the finding that 71% of respondents said they watched the Democratic convention. Given that even the last night of the convention only 24.5% of American homes were tuned in according to the Nielsen ratings (still quite an impressive showing!) it's still close to impossible that 71% watched some chunk of it even when you account for nonvoters in the population at large.
This reminded me of a finding we had in our tracking poll last week about the debates for Governor that came out so unrealistically that I didn't even bother to release it. 21% of North Carolinians claimed to have watched the debate WTVD hosted a couple weeks ago. That in and of itself is not remotely believable but the crosstabs made it seem like even more of a joke- 30% of voters in the southeastern part of the state, 25% in the northeast, and 17% in the Mountains, Charlotte, and Triad claimed to have watched the debate. The only problem with that? As far as I know it wasn't even televised outside of the Triangle! There was a replay on UNC-TV over the weekend but by then we had already finished polling. So are we to believe that about one in five voters across the state went online to watch it? Not a chance.
I think folks tell the truth about who they're supporting for various offices, but they appear to be eager to come across as more informed and engaged than they actually are when it comes to things like watching debates and conventions- not a whole lot us pollsters can do about that.
For what it's worth (not much) respondents in the Triangle who said they watched the debate thought Bev Perdue beat Pat McCrory by a margin of 54-46.
This reminded me of a finding we had in our tracking poll last week about the debates for Governor that came out so unrealistically that I didn't even bother to release it. 21% of North Carolinians claimed to have watched the debate WTVD hosted a couple weeks ago. That in and of itself is not remotely believable but the crosstabs made it seem like even more of a joke- 30% of voters in the southeastern part of the state, 25% in the northeast, and 17% in the Mountains, Charlotte, and Triad claimed to have watched the debate. The only problem with that? As far as I know it wasn't even televised outside of the Triangle! There was a replay on UNC-TV over the weekend but by then we had already finished polling. So are we to believe that about one in five voters across the state went online to watch it? Not a chance.
I think folks tell the truth about who they're supporting for various offices, but they appear to be eager to come across as more informed and engaged than they actually are when it comes to things like watching debates and conventions- not a whole lot us pollsters can do about that.
For what it's worth (not much) respondents in the Triangle who said they watched the debate thought Bev Perdue beat Pat McCrory by a margin of 54-46.
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