Thursday, September 4, 2008

Congress tabs from Democracy Corps

One thing the Democracy Corps poll asked was who people would support for Congress in each district of the state. The sample sizes on these are pretty small (51-86 respondents per CD) so should be taken with a bit of a grain of salt but they still tell an interesting story:

-Folks who have leads over 15 points include G.K. Butterfield, Bob Etheridge, Walter Jones, David Price, Howard Coble, Mike McIntyre, Sue Myrick, and Heath Shuler. Shuler has a remarkable 66-27 advantage. It's amazing how quickly a district can become 'safe,' but that's sort of the choice the Republicans made by nominating Carl Mumpower. Unless I'm missing something it doesn't look like the 12th and 13th district crosstabs are on the report but I am pretty comfortable saying that Mel Watt and Brad Miller will be reelected this fall.

-The closest Congressional district in the state is the 5th, where Virginia Foxx leads Roy Carter 48-46. I really hope the DCCC and other folks take the pick up opportunity in this district seriously. There are races on the Red to Blue list that based on the data I've seen are less winnable than this one. Carter is a uniquely appealing candidate and has the opportunity to pull off the same kind of shocker Larry Kissell almost did in 2006 if he gets the resources he needs to run the strongest campaign possible.

-In the 8th District they show Robin Hayes up 50-42 on Larry Kissell- I think it's a little closer than that right now but that's simply a sample size issue. Same thing in the 10th District where Daniel Johnson trails Patrick McHenry 54-39 based on 65 interviews.

This data is on page 11 of the crosstabs.


Anonymous said...

This is the carter... Roy will outsource foxx this fall

Anonymous said...

Thats a real good lead that Shuler has - with that I cant understand why he will not debate Carl Mumpower.

Here is a clip were you will see Shuler take no questions then run away:

Then just go back two years ago & see what Shuler said


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