After what was by any measure a disastrous election cycle for Republicans in North Carolina, there has understandably been a lot of handwringing among the party's activists about what needs to be done to turn it around.
A lot of them think the solution is for the party to be more conservative. One blogger even says the party needs to 'root out it's (sic) moderates.'
Really?
In 2002 when Elizabeth Dole generally came across as a moderate, she won big. In 2008 she came across as a mean, old conservative devoted to party above state and got walloped.
Pat McCrory, another relative moderate, came closer than anyone else could have to getting elected Governor as a Republican this year. When we tested possible general election match ups in February McCrory was tied with Bev Perdue while Bill Graham and Fred Smith, each perceived as more conservative candidates, trailed her by 12 points a piece. As a Democrat, I was hoping fervently that Fred Smith would win the Republican primary. Bev would have won by double digits if he had.
The two Republicans who have managed to get elected Governor hardly projected as right wingers.
Yes, Jesse Helms was very successful for a long time. But that was in 20th century North Carolina. The state's face in the 21st century, as we saw last month, is quite a different story.
I hope the NC GOP roots out its moderates because that would ensure another generation of Democratic control in the state, as well as continued success for Democrats at the federal level. But it's hardly a winning strategy if they really want to turn their party around.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Paterson's Choice
With it now becoming clearer that Caroline Kennedy is a serious possibility for New York's US Senate vacancy, it begs the question of whether a Kennedy appointment or an Andrew Cuomo one would help Governor David Paterson score more political points.
The answer is that it's a wash. We found last week that Paterson has a 68% approval rating with New York Democrats, a strong performance to be sure. But what about the third of folks in his party who either disapprove of the job he's doing or are unsure...could appointing either help him to win over those folks?
The answer is no. 43% of Democrats who don't approve of Paterson's job performance want Kennedy to be picked, while 22% support Cuomo. Those numbers are virtually identical to the preferences of the population at large, where 44% are for Kennedy and 23% would choose Cuomo.
There's no meaningful difference between who those who aren't sure about Paterson want appointed and who those who are happy with the job he's doing would like to see get the Senate seat. That's just more confirmation that with high approval numbers Paterson should be able to appoint who he thinks best for the Senate seat without having to worry too much about political repercussions in one direction or another.
The answer is that it's a wash. We found last week that Paterson has a 68% approval rating with New York Democrats, a strong performance to be sure. But what about the third of folks in his party who either disapprove of the job he's doing or are unsure...could appointing either help him to win over those folks?
The answer is no. 43% of Democrats who don't approve of Paterson's job performance want Kennedy to be picked, while 22% support Cuomo. Those numbers are virtually identical to the preferences of the population at large, where 44% are for Kennedy and 23% would choose Cuomo.
There's no meaningful difference between who those who aren't sure about Paterson want appointed and who those who are happy with the job he's doing would like to see get the Senate seat. That's just more confirmation that with high approval numbers Paterson should be able to appoint who he thinks best for the Senate seat without having to worry too much about political repercussions in one direction or another.
Monday, December 15, 2008
David Broder: Oops
As the Electoral College finalizes the Presidential election results today, I was reminded of what David Broder wrote in a column shortly after the North Carolina and Indiana primaries:
I dredge this up not to make Broder look bad- I don't think much of anyone except the Obama campaign itself thought those victories were possible at that point- but as another reminder of just how improbable and remarkable some of Obama's successes this year really were.
The two states that voted on Tuesday — Indiana and North Carolina — are so unimportant to Democratic chances of electing the next president that it is unlikely Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would make more than a token appearance in either after one of them is nominated.Of course Barack Obama ended up spending quite a bit of time in- and winning- both.
I dredge this up not to make Broder look bad- I don't think much of anyone except the Obama campaign itself thought those victories were possible at that point- but as another reminder of just how improbable and remarkable some of Obama's successes this year really were.
Opportunity Lost?
When I reviewed all the folks we tested against Elizabeth Dole over the course of 2007 last week, I missed a couple. In June we found that Bev Perdue would trail Dole 46-37 and that Richard Moore would start out at a 45-34 deficit.
If I recall correctly we tested them simultaneously against Dole because there was a sense among Democratic leaders and activists at the time that it was wasteful that two strong candidates were duking it out in a nasty primary contest for Governor while the Senate race remained untouched.
With the news now that Moore might be considering a run for the Senate, you really have to wonder how much better off his political career would be now if he'd just decided two years that he wanted to be a Senator. With the benefit of hindsight it seems pretty likely he would have won considering how fragile Dole turned out to be.
A Moore candidacy would more than likely have kept any other serious Democratic candidates from running, and folks would have been happy with him for preserving party tranquility by avoiding a divisive Gubernatorial primary and also for stepping up to the plate to take on Dole.
If Moore ends up running and getting the Democratic nomination in 2010 he will certainly be a formidable candidate. But his best shot at being elected to the Senate has probably already passed.
If I recall correctly we tested them simultaneously against Dole because there was a sense among Democratic leaders and activists at the time that it was wasteful that two strong candidates were duking it out in a nasty primary contest for Governor while the Senate race remained untouched.
With the news now that Moore might be considering a run for the Senate, you really have to wonder how much better off his political career would be now if he'd just decided two years that he wanted to be a Senator. With the benefit of hindsight it seems pretty likely he would have won considering how fragile Dole turned out to be.
A Moore candidacy would more than likely have kept any other serious Democratic candidates from running, and folks would have been happy with him for preserving party tranquility by avoiding a divisive Gubernatorial primary and also for stepping up to the plate to take on Dole.
If Moore ends up running and getting the Democratic nomination in 2010 he will certainly be a formidable candidate. But his best shot at being elected to the Senate has probably already passed.
NC voters optimistic Obama will be an improvement
Who will make a better President?
Barack Obama 56
George W. Bush 36
Barack Obama may have only won North Carolina by the smallest of margins in last month's Presidential election but when it comes to who the state's voters think will do the stronger job between him and the current President, it's no contest. North Carolinians think Obama will be better than George W. Bush by a wide margin.
What's particularly striking about this is how consistent the sense that Obama will be better is across demographic lines, even with groups that weren't particularly supportive of him in the election. For instance a majority of senior citizens and a plurality of white voters think Obama will be better than Bush even though each group supported John McCain by a pretty good margin.
Voters across all age, region, race, and gender groups that PPP tracks believe that Obama will prove to be a better President, as do almost 20% of Republicans and, by a 54-33 margin, independent voters.
It's not hard to track this optimism for Obama, once again, back to the economy. 65% of voters who say it's their top priority think he'll be an improvement compared to just 26% who think Bush will prove to have been the better President. It will be interesting to see how much breathing room the voters give Obama before they start expecting to see tangible results from his policies.
Full results here.
Barack Obama 56
George W. Bush 36
Barack Obama may have only won North Carolina by the smallest of margins in last month's Presidential election but when it comes to who the state's voters think will do the stronger job between him and the current President, it's no contest. North Carolinians think Obama will be better than George W. Bush by a wide margin.
What's particularly striking about this is how consistent the sense that Obama will be better is across demographic lines, even with groups that weren't particularly supportive of him in the election. For instance a majority of senior citizens and a plurality of white voters think Obama will be better than Bush even though each group supported John McCain by a pretty good margin.
Voters across all age, region, race, and gender groups that PPP tracks believe that Obama will prove to be a better President, as do almost 20% of Republicans and, by a 54-33 margin, independent voters.
It's not hard to track this optimism for Obama, once again, back to the economy. 65% of voters who say it's their top priority think he'll be an improvement compared to just 26% who think Bush will prove to have been the better President. It will be interesting to see how much breathing room the voters give Obama before they start expecting to see tangible results from his policies.
Full results here.
Friday, December 12, 2008
More on Kennedy's Support
One of the most interesting things about our poll from earlier this week finding that Caroline Kennedy was the top choice of New York Democrats to replace Hillary Clinton was her support from black voters who grew up during the time her father was President and her uncle was serving the state as a Senator.
Among black voters who were born between 1943 and 1962, 65% listed Kennedy as their top choice and 29% listed her as their second choice for a total of almost 100% saying she would be one of their picks. No candidate earned anywhere near that level of support with any other demographic subgroup of the population.
John and Robert Kennedy were certainly very popular with black voters, and more than 40 years later it appears the affection African Americans in New York feel for the Kennedys remains.
Among black voters who were born between 1943 and 1962, 65% listed Kennedy as their top choice and 29% listed her as their second choice for a total of almost 100% saying she would be one of their picks. No candidate earned anywhere near that level of support with any other demographic subgroup of the population.
John and Robert Kennedy were certainly very popular with black voters, and more than 40 years later it appears the affection African Americans in New York feel for the Kennedys remains.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
More powerful than I ever imagined
I like to read what the right wing blogs say about our polls and was amused beyond belief by what this commenter at the Free Republic said about our survey yesterday showing Roy Cooper leading Richard Burr by five points in a possible contest:
"I live in NC and let me talk about the pollster Tom Jensen. He is one among the reasons, McCain lost North Carolina. Till last 4 weeks, McCain was ahead by 3 to 5 points. This guy consistently released polls on the presidential elections and everytime he appeared on the big triangle radio market to brag about the closeness of the race. Also, it looks like, he was responsible for making Obama campaign move the resources from Georgia to North carolina. In addition to it, he collaborated with Democratic national committee to spend million on thrashing Dole. She did not respond quickly and it is another story.Now, Tom jensen is setting the stage for the next election. He is trying to influence the election by encouraging the Democratic National Committee to again spend millions to win this senate race."
Little old me, personally responsible for the demise of Elizabeth Dole and Barack Obama's win in the state. Who knew? Certainly news to me!
Dole Tanking in Final Days
Dole Opinion
Favorable 36
Unfavorable 51
Better Senator
Kay Hagan 52
Elizabeth Dole 35
As Elizabeth Dole prepares to leave the US Senate, her popularity with North Carolina voters is at an all time low. For the first time a majority of people in the state view her unfavorably.
What is perhaps most remarkable about these numbers is that a full quarter of Republican voters now have a negative opinion of Dole. Few self identified Republicans voted for Hagan last month so a lot of folks must have cast a Dole ballot while holding their noses.
To get an idea of how whatever bipartisan appeal Dole might have had is gone, consider this: in February 2008 24% of Democrats approved of her job performance while just 16% of Republicans disapproved. When there are more folks in the opposite party happy with what you're doing than there are people in your party who are unhappy with what you're doing you're usually in good shape. But ten months later those figures for Dole have pretty much flipped: 25% of Republicans see her unfavorably, while only 15% of Democrats look at her positively.
When it comes to whether they think Hagan or Dole will make the better Senator, 52% pick Hagan compared to 35% for Dole. The optimism for Hagan spans all demographic groups by race, gender, age, and region. Voters also trust the new Senator more to be able to do something about the economy- 60% of folks in the state who list that as their top issue think Hagan will do a better job compared to just 25% who say the same of Dole.
It's remarkable how far Dole's esteem with North Carolinians has fallen in just six years.
Full results here
Favorable 36
Unfavorable 51
Better Senator
Kay Hagan 52
Elizabeth Dole 35
As Elizabeth Dole prepares to leave the US Senate, her popularity with North Carolina voters is at an all time low. For the first time a majority of people in the state view her unfavorably.
What is perhaps most remarkable about these numbers is that a full quarter of Republican voters now have a negative opinion of Dole. Few self identified Republicans voted for Hagan last month so a lot of folks must have cast a Dole ballot while holding their noses.
To get an idea of how whatever bipartisan appeal Dole might have had is gone, consider this: in February 2008 24% of Democrats approved of her job performance while just 16% of Republicans disapproved. When there are more folks in the opposite party happy with what you're doing than there are people in your party who are unhappy with what you're doing you're usually in good shape. But ten months later those figures for Dole have pretty much flipped: 25% of Republicans see her unfavorably, while only 15% of Democrats look at her positively.
When it comes to whether they think Hagan or Dole will make the better Senator, 52% pick Hagan compared to 35% for Dole. The optimism for Hagan spans all demographic groups by race, gender, age, and region. Voters also trust the new Senator more to be able to do something about the economy- 60% of folks in the state who list that as their top issue think Hagan will do a better job compared to just 25% who say the same of Dole.
It's remarkable how far Dole's esteem with North Carolinians has fallen in just six years.
Full results here
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Draft Coop
The movement has a blog.
Don't know who's behind it, but I think it's safe to say Roy Cooper is uniquely qualified to appeal to voters across the ideological spectrum- he's a rare politician that both liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans I know have a great deal of respect for.
Don't know who's behind it, but I think it's safe to say Roy Cooper is uniquely qualified to appeal to voters across the ideological spectrum- he's a rare politician that both liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans I know have a great deal of respect for.
NC Senate 2010: Cooper leads Burr
Richard Burr Approval:
Approve 32
Disapprove 31
Not Sure 37
Roy Cooper Approval:
Approve 44
Disapprove 23
Not Sure 34
Head to Head:
Cooper 39
Burr 34
If Attorney General Roy Cooper decides to run for the Senate in 2010, you can put Richard Burr's name right to the top of the list of endangered incumbents nationally.
Cooper leads Burr by five points in a hypothetical pairing. He also has a similarly high profile to Burr, with only 34% of voters in the state having no opinion about his job performance, compared to 37% who are ambivalent about Burr. It is quite unusual for a lower ranking state official to start out with similar name recognition to a US Senator.
Cooper is also much more popular with a 21 point net positive approval rating, compared to Burr for whom it is only a single point.
Cooper has considerably more appeal across party lines than the incumbent. While Burr's approval among Democrats is -30, Cooper's with Republicans is only -6.
To put into perspective just how good this early standing is for Cooper, keep in mind that when PPP first tested Senator-elect Kay Hagan against Elizabeth Dole during the summer of 2007, Dole led Hagan by 16 points. Of course that number can also serve as a warning to any Democrat who runs against Burr- things can change fast in politics.
We'll break this poll down further in the coming days. Full results here.
Approve 32
Disapprove 31
Not Sure 37
Roy Cooper Approval:
Approve 44
Disapprove 23
Not Sure 34
Head to Head:
Cooper 39
Burr 34
If Attorney General Roy Cooper decides to run for the Senate in 2010, you can put Richard Burr's name right to the top of the list of endangered incumbents nationally.
Cooper leads Burr by five points in a hypothetical pairing. He also has a similarly high profile to Burr, with only 34% of voters in the state having no opinion about his job performance, compared to 37% who are ambivalent about Burr. It is quite unusual for a lower ranking state official to start out with similar name recognition to a US Senator.
Cooper is also much more popular with a 21 point net positive approval rating, compared to Burr for whom it is only a single point.
Cooper has considerably more appeal across party lines than the incumbent. While Burr's approval among Democrats is -30, Cooper's with Republicans is only -6.
To put into perspective just how good this early standing is for Cooper, keep in mind that when PPP first tested Senator-elect Kay Hagan against Elizabeth Dole during the summer of 2007, Dole led Hagan by 16 points. Of course that number can also serve as a warning to any Democrat who runs against Burr- things can change fast in politics.
We'll break this poll down further in the coming days. Full results here.
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