Wednesday, December 10, 2008

NC Senate 2010: Cooper leads Burr

Richard Burr Approval:

Approve 32
Disapprove 31
Not Sure 37

Roy Cooper Approval:

Approve 44
Disapprove 23
Not Sure 34

Head to Head:

Cooper 39
Burr 34

If Attorney General Roy Cooper decides to run for the Senate in 2010, you can put Richard Burr's name right to the top of the list of endangered incumbents nationally.

Cooper leads Burr by five points in a hypothetical pairing. He also has a similarly high profile to Burr, with only 34% of voters in the state having no opinion about his job performance, compared to 37% who are ambivalent about Burr. It is quite unusual for a lower ranking state official to start out with similar name recognition to a US Senator.

Cooper is also much more popular with a 21 point net positive approval rating, compared to Burr for whom it is only a single point.

Cooper has considerably more appeal across party lines than the incumbent. While Burr's approval among Democrats is -30, Cooper's with Republicans is only -6.

To put into perspective just how good this early standing is for Cooper, keep in mind that when PPP first tested Senator-elect Kay Hagan against Elizabeth Dole during the summer of 2007, Dole led Hagan by 16 points. Of course that number can also serve as a warning to any Democrat who runs against Burr- things can change fast in politics.

We'll break this poll down further in the coming days. Full results here.


Will Matthews said...

Wow...that's no good for Burr. It might be influenced by IDing Cooper as current AG in question before, but even if there were such an effect, you could only attribute so much to it.

Anonymous said...

This probably won't have a very significant impact on the results, but how are you determining the racial breakdown?

Right now, you're pegging African-American turnout at 21%. I'm not too familiar with NC politics, but isn't minority turnout usually significantly lower during non-presidential elections?

MichiganLiberal said...

(Anonymous from above. Forgot to sign in then.)

I think the big number right now is that even among white voters, Cooper has higher favorability #s than Burr does.

Will Matthews said...

MichiganLiberal is right. Per SBOE turnout info, 06G was 16.3% AA down from 18.6% in 2004. No SBOE numbers on 08 yet, and its long term impact is a big question mark. Tom, is 21 your number for 2010? Based on my memory of the going into EDay numbers, 08 will be right around 23% once the finals come out. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on what will remain from the 2008 AA voter surge. Have you guys done(/might you do) any polling to see whether the new voters are now interested in all politics or just Obama people?

Tom Jensen said...

If I had to guess I'd say black turnout will be somewhere in the high teens in 2010 but at this point we're not working off a likely voter model or worrying too much about exact projections...I can be more specific probably in June 2010 :)

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