Yesterday Richard Moore's campaign manager, Jay Reiff, sent out an e-mail to supporters touting the results of a new poll by the Benenson Strategy Group. According to the poll Perdue leads Moore 34% to 30%. The mass email and polling memo make note that Moore actually leads Perdue 48% to 33% among voters "who know both candidates."
Reiff did not feel the need to mention in his e-mail that Benenson is the campaign's paid pollster. And as WUNC's Laura Leslie pointed out last night, "although Benensen is one of the better internal pollsters out there, no one gets rich by delivering strictly dismal data. Knowing how to find a silver lining in the numbers is, well, worth a lot of silver."
Reiff also used part of the e-mail to take some thinly veiled shots at the accuracy of polling companies, including PPP, that have delivered less favorable numbers for Moore's chances.
For instance he said "How was the poll conducted? Many public polls are automated, computer-generated polls done on the cheap. Our pollster uses live callers to make sure we’re interviewing actual voters."
It has been written numerous times on this blog how bogus this line of attack against IVR surveys is. But I will repeat it, there is absolutely no evidence that IVR surveys are less accurate than live-interview surveys and we will put our track record up against anybody.
In fact the Moore campaign has been happy to tout our numbers when the results were more favorable to them.
Reiff also devoted a significant chunk of his e-mail to criticizing Civitas' methodology. We don't agree with the way they do their polls for primaries either because they don't survey exclusively likely primary voters, but Reiff's criticism is ironic considering just two weeks ago he sent out an e-mail to supporters hailing the results of a Civitas poll as a sign that the race is 'wide open.'
I'm pretty sure Jay Reiff wouldn't be taking shots at our methodology if his candidate was doing a little better.
You can say what you want about us, but whenever we do a poll on the gubernatorial race we tell you exactly what we asked and give you full crosstabs. I would challenge the Moore campaign to do the same thing before sending out selective poll numbers and criticizing the way we do business.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
ACC Loyalty Poll: the Political Breakdown
UNC and Duke's iconic basketball coaches, Dean Smith and Mike Krzyzewski, are both known for their strong political views.
It turns out their views may reflect those of their fans bases as well.
Our ACC loyalty poll shows that UNC has the largest percentage of fans who identify themselves as Democrats in the Triangle while Duke has the largest percentage of fans who identify themselves as Republicans.
Here are the numbers:
UNC
Democratic 58
Republican 25
Other 18
Duke
Democratic 45
Republican 40
Other 15
State
Democratic 46
Republican 36
Other 19
A statewide poll earlier this year also showed UNC fans to be the most Democratic and Duke fans to be the most Republican:
UNC
Democratic 49
Republican 33
Other 18
Duke
Republican 44
Democratic 37
Other 19
NC State
Democratic 43
Republican 38
Other 19
Full results of this week's poll here.
It turns out their views may reflect those of their fans bases as well.
Our ACC loyalty poll shows that UNC has the largest percentage of fans who identify themselves as Democrats in the Triangle while Duke has the largest percentage of fans who identify themselves as Republicans.
Here are the numbers:
UNC
Democratic 58
Republican 25
Other 18
Duke
Democratic 45
Republican 40
Other 15
State
Democratic 46
Republican 36
Other 19
A statewide poll earlier this year also showed UNC fans to be the most Democratic and Duke fans to be the most Republican:
UNC
Democratic 49
Republican 33
Other 18
Duke
Republican 44
Democratic 37
Other 19
NC State
Democratic 43
Republican 38
Other 19
Full results of this week's poll here.
ACC Loyalty Poll: the Basics
Which North Carolina college team do you cheer for most?
NC State 31
UNC 23
Duke 17
Wake 4
Other 25
NC State is the most popular ACC school among likely voters in the Triangle, according to our newest poll. This is likely due to the fact that around 2/3rds of the region's population is in Wake County.
Here is the data broken out county by county:
Durham:
Duke 34
UNC 32
State 5
Duke has difficulty registering as the most popular school even in its own county, just barely edging out UNC. Of course many UNC faculty and staff members live in Durham County now due to the rising cost of housing in Orange County.
Orange:
UNC 48
Duke 19
State 6
UNC has a higher percentage of support from respondents in its own county than either Duke or NC State does. State's 6% showing in Orange County combined with its 5% showing in Durham County shows that it has little Triangle wide support even as it leads overall.
Wake:
State 45
UNC 16
Duke 11
State has strong support in its home base. UNC's showing is surprisingly low.
It is worth noting also that we asked this question on a statewide basis for a poll in April. The the numbers were:
UNC 35
State 26
Duke 18
Wake 5
Other 16
Full results of this week's poll here.
NC State 31
UNC 23
Duke 17
Wake 4
Other 25
NC State is the most popular ACC school among likely voters in the Triangle, according to our newest poll. This is likely due to the fact that around 2/3rds of the region's population is in Wake County.
Here is the data broken out county by county:
Durham:
Duke 34
UNC 32
State 5
Duke has difficulty registering as the most popular school even in its own county, just barely edging out UNC. Of course many UNC faculty and staff members live in Durham County now due to the rising cost of housing in Orange County.
Orange:
UNC 48
Duke 19
State 6
UNC has a higher percentage of support from respondents in its own county than either Duke or NC State does. State's 6% showing in Orange County combined with its 5% showing in Durham County shows that it has little Triangle wide support even as it leads overall.
Wake:
State 45
UNC 16
Duke 11
State has strong support in its home base. UNC's showing is surprisingly low.
It is worth noting also that we asked this question on a statewide basis for a poll in April. The the numbers were:
UNC 35
State 26
Duke 18
Wake 5
Other 16
Full results of this week's poll here.
Monday, December 10, 2007
A poll Paul does well in
Last month when we put out our tracking poll the Ron Paul people came after us for not including him. They e-mailed us, they called us, they left a comment on our blog saying he was the 'only real Republican.'
So we added him and he received strong support...from no one. He managed the support of 3% of respondents.
He did win one North Carolina poll last week though. Under the Dome reports that his supporters flooded the Wake County Young Republicans Christmas party and managed to deliver him a victory in their straw poll with the support of 53% of those present.
So we know they can put banners on highway overpasses, put up a lot of signs, and turn out in force for a straw poll.
But as of yet that stuff hasn't done much to move him forward in the broader polls.
So we added him and he received strong support...from no one. He managed the support of 3% of respondents.
He did win one North Carolina poll last week though. Under the Dome reports that his supporters flooded the Wake County Young Republicans Christmas party and managed to deliver him a victory in their straw poll with the support of 53% of those present.
So we know they can put banners on highway overpasses, put up a lot of signs, and turn out in force for a straw poll.
But as of yet that stuff hasn't done much to move him forward in the broader polls.
The decline of Bill Graham
| Month | Bill Graham’s margin on Fred Smith |
| January | +15 |
| February | +16 |
| March | +15 |
| April | +11 |
| May | +12 |
| June | +6 |
| July | +14 |
| August | +12 |
| September | +14 |
| October | +2 |
| November | -8 |
| December | -8 |
The chart kind of speaks for itself. With the exception of June Bill Graham led Fred Smith by 11-16 points in each of our monthly tracking polls from January to September. Smith cut 12 points off the lead from September to October and then another 10 points from October to November.
What to chalk it up to? I think in this case it's good old fashioned retail politics. Fred Smith's rise in the polls coincides almost exactly with the launch of his Statewide BBQ tour. He had 21 events across the state in August and September, then 23 during October alone. It's not like hundreds of people are turning out to these things but it's generating a lot of good small town press coverage and ingratiating him to party activists. During that time Bill Graham has done...well...not much unless I'm missing something. Smith really seems to be out working Graham and it's being reflected in the polls.
Maybe Graham will win by pouring millions of dollars of his personal fortune into tv advertising come spring time, but right now I'd say he's in a lot of trouble.
Friday, December 7, 2007
Undecideds and the 1998 Senate race
Someone who read the below post called and told me he didn't think the high percentage of undecideds for the Democratic primary field was a problem at all and suggested that John Edwards' poll numbers probably weren't very strong at this point ten years ago.
The earliest numbers for the 1998 Senate primary I could find were from a late March Winston-Salem Journal poll. It showed Edwards with 23%, D.G. Martin with 14%, and Ella Scarborough with 8%. 53% were still undecided.
I don't think Kay Hagan or Jim Neal is another John Edwards, but those numbers show that with the right amount of money, personality, and political fortune your stock can certainly rise quickly.
The earliest numbers for the 1998 Senate primary I could find were from a late March Winston-Salem Journal poll. It showed Edwards with 23%, D.G. Martin with 14%, and Ella Scarborough with 8%. 53% were still undecided.
I don't think Kay Hagan or Jim Neal is another John Edwards, but those numbers show that with the right amount of money, personality, and political fortune your stock can certainly rise quickly.
Ranking the Undecideds
From our polls this week, here are all the races ranked in order of the percentage of undecideds:
Republican Treasurer 72
Republican Lieutenant Governor 69
Democratic Lieutenant Governor 65
Democratic Treasurer 64
Democratic Senate 58
Republican Governor 52
Democratic Superintendent 48
Democratic Governor 27
Republican President 10
Democratic President 8
What does it mean? You would expect the high visibility races- President, Governor, Senator- to have pretty low undecideds. That's the case for both presidential races and for the Democratic gubernatorial race. Not so much for the Democratic senate field or the Republican gubernatorial field though, both of which still have more than half of the respondents undecided.
That many undecideds means none of the candidates are even really capturing the attention of their fellow party members much less the general electorate. That doesn't mean it's impossible for Fred Smith, Bill Graham, Bob Orr, Kay Hagan, or Jim Neal to be successful next year but it does mean they need to start connecting with voters sooner than later if they're going to have a real chance.
Republican Treasurer 72
Republican Lieutenant Governor 69
Democratic Lieutenant Governor 65
Democratic Treasurer 64
Democratic Senate 58
Republican Governor 52
Democratic Superintendent 48
Democratic Governor 27
Republican President 10
Democratic President 8
What does it mean? You would expect the high visibility races- President, Governor, Senator- to have pretty low undecideds. That's the case for both presidential races and for the Democratic gubernatorial race. Not so much for the Democratic senate field or the Republican gubernatorial field though, both of which still have more than half of the respondents undecided.
That many undecideds means none of the candidates are even really capturing the attention of their fellow party members much less the general electorate. That doesn't mean it's impossible for Fred Smith, Bill Graham, Bob Orr, Kay Hagan, or Jim Neal to be successful next year but it does mean they need to start connecting with voters sooner than later if they're going to have a real chance.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
A tale of two headlines
It is always interesting how very different messages can be taken away from the same data.
This morning's Under the Dome item on our Republican gubernatorial poll says 'Poll good news for Perdue, McCrory.'
News 14 Carolina's headline for a story on the same poll is 'McCrory not favored in Gov. race.'
My take? I was surprised McCrory didn't finish first. The Republican field is pretty weak. When you have a three term state senator, a former judge, and someone who's never held office before running it seems like the mayor of Charlotte should be leading the way even without a campaign under way.
McCrory's performance is stunningly poor outside the Charlotte tv market though. He says his reason for considering a run is that Charlotte gets the shaft- that's fine but it's not a message likely to boost his standing in all the regions of the state where he's pulling 3 or 4 percent support.
The primary is now less than five months away. If McCrory really wants to get into this thing I don't think he has another month to make a decision, especially with Fred Smith's standing getting stronger and stronger.
For McCrory to be successful he needs to announce in the next couple weeks and come up with a compelling message quick.
I think he'll take his sweet time and decide not to run. He just doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would enjoy campaigning in Duplin County, and I think he's smart enough to realize he would have to do that kind of thing to be successful statewide.
This morning's Under the Dome item on our Republican gubernatorial poll says 'Poll good news for Perdue, McCrory.'
News 14 Carolina's headline for a story on the same poll is 'McCrory not favored in Gov. race.'
My take? I was surprised McCrory didn't finish first. The Republican field is pretty weak. When you have a three term state senator, a former judge, and someone who's never held office before running it seems like the mayor of Charlotte should be leading the way even without a campaign under way.
McCrory's performance is stunningly poor outside the Charlotte tv market though. He says his reason for considering a run is that Charlotte gets the shaft- that's fine but it's not a message likely to boost his standing in all the regions of the state where he's pulling 3 or 4 percent support.
The primary is now less than five months away. If McCrory really wants to get into this thing I don't think he has another month to make a decision, especially with Fred Smith's standing getting stronger and stronger.
For McCrory to be successful he needs to announce in the next couple weeks and come up with a compelling message quick.
I think he'll take his sweet time and decide not to run. He just doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would enjoy campaigning in Duplin County, and I think he's smart enough to realize he would have to do that kind of thing to be successful statewide.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Republican Tracking Poll: President
President:
Mike Huckabee 33
Rudy Giuliani 17
Fred Thompson 16
Mitt Romney 9
John McCain 8
Ron Paul 3
Undecided 10
Other 3
After leading PPP's monthly polls since June, Fred Thompson fell to third while Mike Huckabee took a strong lead on the day before a major North Carolina fundraiser.
North Carolina Republican primary voters are conservative and want a fellow southern conservative to support for President. Initially they were strongly supportive of Thompson but his support declined each month after he officially announced his candidacy. The better voters got to know him the less they liked him. Huckabee has filled that void as a southern conservative North Carolina Republicans think they can support.
Huckabee's strong performance comes the day before a well publicized Greensboro fundraiser, which could be one contributor to his support. His margin over Giuliani is greatest in the Triad.
Full results here
Mike Huckabee 33
Rudy Giuliani 17
Fred Thompson 16
Mitt Romney 9
John McCain 8
Ron Paul 3
Undecided 10
Other 3
After leading PPP's monthly polls since June, Fred Thompson fell to third while Mike Huckabee took a strong lead on the day before a major North Carolina fundraiser.
North Carolina Republican primary voters are conservative and want a fellow southern conservative to support for President. Initially they were strongly supportive of Thompson but his support declined each month after he officially announced his candidacy. The better voters got to know him the less they liked him. Huckabee has filled that void as a southern conservative North Carolina Republicans think they can support.
Huckabee's strong performance comes the day before a well publicized Greensboro fundraiser, which could be one contributor to his support. His margin over Giuliani is greatest in the Triad.
Full results here
Republican Tracking Poll: Governor
Governor without McCrory:
Fred Smith 25
Bill Graham 17
Bob Orr 6
Undecided 52
Governor with McCrory:
Fred Smith 20
Bill Graham 14
Pat McCrory 14
Bob Orr 4
Undecided 47
Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory would start with a strong regional base but little statewide support if he got into the Republican race for Governor. He earned the support of 44% of respondents in the Charlotte area and 18% of those within the 828 area code for western North Carolina, parts of which are within the Charlotte TV market. In the other four regions of the state, his support does not exceed 4% If he gets into the race he will have to get out of Charlotte and spend a lot of time and money building his visibility in the Triad, Triangle, and eastern North Carolina.
With or without McCrory, Fred Smith remains in the lead for a second month in a row in the PPP tracking poll. Bill Graham had led the rest of the year but he has been quiet lately while Smith embarked on a statewide barbecue tour that generated a lot of positive media attention and grassroots support.
The specter of a McCrory entrance into the race seems to affect all the current candidates equally rather than having a strong negative impact on the support of any individual candidate.
Full results here
Fred Smith 25
Bill Graham 17
Bob Orr 6
Undecided 52
Governor with McCrory:
Fred Smith 20
Bill Graham 14
Pat McCrory 14
Bob Orr 4
Undecided 47
Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory would start with a strong regional base but little statewide support if he got into the Republican race for Governor. He earned the support of 44% of respondents in the Charlotte area and 18% of those within the 828 area code for western North Carolina, parts of which are within the Charlotte TV market. In the other four regions of the state, his support does not exceed 4% If he gets into the race he will have to get out of Charlotte and spend a lot of time and money building his visibility in the Triad, Triangle, and eastern North Carolina.
With or without McCrory, Fred Smith remains in the lead for a second month in a row in the PPP tracking poll. Bill Graham had led the rest of the year but he has been quiet lately while Smith embarked on a statewide barbecue tour that generated a lot of positive media attention and grassroots support.
The specter of a McCrory entrance into the race seems to affect all the current candidates equally rather than having a strong negative impact on the support of any individual candidate.
Full results here
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