Quinnipiac Kennedy Poll

Quinnipiac has a new poll out today that confirms what we told you last week- Caroline Kennedy has seen a pretty strong decline in her popularity.

She went from a net +29 favorability in a poll they did last month to +10 now in the wake of her public campaigning. We found it last week at +4.

They also found that a plurality of voters in the state prefer Cuomo over Kennedy for a potential appointment, 31-24. That is considerably narrower than the 58-27 margin we found in support of Cuomo, but Quinnipiac also provided a lot more response options than we did; we only asked about the two most publicly discussed candidates. It is perhaps not a coincidence that the actual number we found for Kennedy was almost identical to theirs- I think the high level of support we found for Cuomo may have been as much anti-Kennedy as it was pro-Cuomo.

We were accused last week of being anti-Kennedy, and that's just absurd. We did a poll last month that found a high level of support for her, and we were more than happy to put that out there. The reality is her standing has declined over the last month, and we're just reporting that. I would have thought after last year people would learn to stop judging the validity of polls and polling companies by whether the results make them happy or not.

Personally I'd be happy to see either Kennedy or Cuomo, or one of the other folks being discussed appointed. They'd all be strong assets to the Senate.

Carnahan is early front runner in Missouri

Democrat Robin Carnahan would be the early favorite for Missouri's open Senate seat if she decides to enter the field, Public Policy Polling's newest survey finds.

Carnahan leads three potential Republican opponents in hypothetical contests. She has a 45-44 edge over Congressman Roy Blunt, a 47-43 lead over former Senator Jim Talent, and a 47-36 advantage over former Treasurer Sarah Steelman.

Carnahan is probably further ahead of her opponents than the numbers might indicate. Her lead among African Americans over Blunt and Talent is only 54-30. Early polling tends to underestimate black support for Democratic candidates. For instance when PPP first surveyed the Gubernatorial race in Missouri, back in July, Jay Nixon led Kenny Hulshof only 52-27 among black voters. According to the exit poll, Nixon ended up taking 90% of it to Hulshof's 7. It seems reasonable to think that Carnahan will end up performing similarly with African American voters, which means she's running pretty close to 50%.

A key advantage for Carnahan is her strong standing among white voters. Carnahan trails Blunt by only a single point with whites, is up two among them against Talent, and has a six point lead against Steelman with that demographic. Any Missouri Democrat who can run roughly even with white voters will coast to an easy victory when the party's overwhelming advantage with black voters is factored in.

Carnahan's favorability is 45/36, Talent's is 45/39, Blunt's is 40/43, and the less well known Steelman's is 36/29. It may seem curious that Blunt has a net negative reaction from Missouri voters, yet polls closer to Carnahan than Talent. The key is the power of being a Congressman. Almost 25% of Democrats in SW Missouri, Blunt's district, say they would support him in an election against Carnahan. While Talent has a roughly equal number of Democrats who view him favorably statewide, most of them still say they would vote for Carnahan if she was his opponent. The Democrats who like Blunt, on the other hand, would actually vote for him.

Full results here

Missourians think Nixon will be an upgrade

Who will prove to be the better Governor?

Jay Nixon 50
Matt Blunt 32

As Jay Nixon takes office as Missouri's newest Governor, voters in the state think he will do a better job than the outgoing occupant of the office, Matt Blunt.

Nixon leads Blunt 50-32 on that count, with 18% unsure. While 75% of Democrats predictably think Nixon is going to be an upgrade, he also benefits from nearly a quarter of Republicans thinking he'll end up being better than their party's recent occupant of the office. Nixon also has a significant edge with independents, 50-29.

Greater confidence in Nixon is pretty steady across demographic lines with whites, blacks, men, women, and folks of all age groups expressing belief that he will be an improvement on Blunt.

Full results here.

Missouri: Retirement Makes the Heart Grow Fonder

Kit Bond Approval:

Approve 57
Disapprove 27

When PPP did some polling over the summer about Kit Bond's approval rating, he wasn't looking so hot. Our July survey found it at 39%, and in August it was 44%. Now with the news of his retirement it's climbed exponentially to 57%, which is the highest approval rating PPP has found for any Senator in the country over the last year.

Bond's new found popularity has cut across political lines. While his approval among Democrats hovered in the 20s previously, now it's up to 36%, with almost as many approving as disapproving of his job performance. He was in the 60s with Republicans, that's now up to 78. Perhaps the biggest movement has come with independents. They were evenly split in their opinions of him over the summer but now approve 59/24.

It appears that with the decision not to seek reelection Bond has perhaps taken on a sort of 'elder statesman' status beyond the battles of electoral politics that will result in his receiving higher marks from here on out.

Tomorrow PPP will release numbers showing how Robin Carnahan stacks up to Roy Blunt, Jim Talent, and Sarah Steelman in the fight to replace Bond.

Full results of today's poll here.

Black Turnout in NC: Impacts it had and Impacts it didn't: Introduction

This is the introduction of PPP's report about the impacts that high black turnout had on the outcomes of key political races in North Carolina last year- and the impacts it didn't. You can read the full thing here.
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There has been a great deal of discussion since the election about just how important black turnout was to Democratic success in North Carolina, and what implications that might or might not have for the 2010 election when Barack Obama will not be at the top of the ticket.

In 2008 black voters actually turned out at a higher rate than whites in the state, an occurrence pretty much unprecedented. Blacks make up 21-22% of North Carolina’s population, but in 2004 made up only 18-19% of the electorate. In 2006 black turnout was proportionally even lower, falling closer to 17%.

That begs the question: how would the election this year have turned out different if black turnout had fallen in a more standard range, and what implications does that have moving forward?

Black Turnout in NC: Impacts it had and Impacts it didn't: Statewide Races

This is a section of PPP's report about the impacts that high black turnout had on the outcomes of key political races in North Carolina last year- and the impacts it didn't. You can read the full thing here.
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We recalculated our final North Carolina poll for the statewide races assuming an 18% African American electorate, and adjusted for any error made on the initial poll (i.e. underestimating Bev Perdue’s margin of victory by two points.)

Contest	Actual Result	Estimated Result at 18%
President	Obama +1	McCain +3
Governor	Perdue +3	McCrory +1
Senate	Hagan +9	Hagan +5
Lieutenant Governor	Dalton +5	Dalton +2
Insurance Commissioner	Goodwin +7	Goodwin +3
Auditor	Wood +8	Wood +4
Agriculture Commissioner	Troxler +4	Troxler +8
Labor Commissioner	Berry +2	Berry +6

There are a few ways to look at these numbers. Obviously there’s no way Barack Obama could have taken North Carolina if there had been normal black turnout but he still would have done considerably better than John Kerry or Al Gore did in the state. That speaks to two things: first, that changes in the voting patterns of white voters did play a key role in Obama’s North Carolina victory and second, that it was not just the quantity of the black vote that played an important role in his victory in the state but also that African Americans voted monolithically Democratic to a greater extent than they had in previous elections. The difference between a Democratic candidate winning the black vote 95-5 and 85-15 is worth at least 200,000 votes in North Carolina, enough to change the results of both the Presidential and Gubernatorial contests in the state.

Kay Hagan would still have won her contest for the Senate by a comfortable margin even at a low level of black turnout, something that should further confirm to Democratic hopefuls that they have a strong chance at taking out Richard Burr in 2010 even if it is a fundamentally different political climate.

Walter Dalton, Wayne Goodwin, and Beth Wood would all still more than likely have won even with low black turnout so ascribing their victories to the ‘Obama factor’ is not really accurate. Republicans Cherie Berry and Steve Troxler came close to losing and if they had been defeated it would have had a lot to do with the turnout Obama generated.

The Governor’s race would have been incredibly close under a different black turnout model, with Pat McCrory likely winning by about a point. It’s possible the race would be stuck in recount land right now if Hillary Clinton had ended up as the Democratic nominee. At the same time it’s worth noting that even if black turnout had simply ticked up to 20% rather than around 23% that still would more than likely have been good enough to give Perdue a narrow victory.

The overall conclusion? When it comes to the 2008 statewide races, the lack of record black turnout would definitely have flipped the Presidential contest and may have changed the contest for Governor. The impact it had on other statewide races has been exaggerated.

Black Turnout in NC: Impacts it had and Impacts it didn't: Looking at 2010: State Senate

This is a section of PPP's report about the impacts that high black turnout had on the outcomes of key political races in North Carolina last year- and the impacts it didn't. You can read the full thing here.
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Although it’s interesting to see what might have happened in the statewide contests this year if black turnout had been different, the reality is that most of the action in 2010 will be at the district level. That makes the implications of what would have happened in those races at average black turnout much more important because today’s hypothetical may prove to be 2010’s reality.

PPP analyzed state Senate districts where Democrats won by fewer than 10 points this year and looked at what might have happened if turnout in them had been equal to 80% of the black population. We used the rule of thumb that a one point difference in the African American share of the electorate is a one point difference in the margin of an election:

Contest	Actual Result	Estimated Result
SD 5	Davis +6	Too Close to Call
SD 8	Soles +3	Too Close to Call
SD 9	Boseman +3	Too Close to Call
SD 24	Foriest +5	Too Close to Call
SD 43	Hoyle +3	Too Close to Call
SD 45	Goss +8	Goss +7
SD 47	Queen +7	Queen +7

If the estimated result in a race would have been within a percentage point either way with black turnout equaling 80% of the African American composition of the district we classify it as too close to call, and that description fits five out of the seven closest Democratic won districts in 2008. Although there were a lot of pretty tight contests, none of them actually reached recount status. With a more standard black turnout all five of them would have.

This is mixed news for Democrats as well. Those five seats will be even more vulnerable in 2010 than they were this year, and if by some chance they all flipped that would knot up the Senate and make Walter Dalton the most powerful Lieutenant Governor in North Carolina history. The good news though is that in two western districts thought to be very vulnerable this past cycle Steve Goss and Joe Sam Queen won their second contests in a row, did it by a good margin, and perhaps most importantly moving forward did it in districts where black turnout is not a factor.

Also, even though all of these races would have been extremely tight if not for the high level of black voting, none of them would clearly have gone to the Republican side if not for that phenomenon the way the Presidential contest in North Carolina likely would have. Some pundits claimed after the election that the only reason Democrats didn’t lose control of the Senate was the Obama factor but our analysis shows that it would simply have placed five contests into tossup status, and it’s unlikely all five would have gone the same way.

Black Turnout in NC: Impacts it had and Impacts it didn't: Looking at 2010: State House

This is a section of PPP's report about the impacts that high black turnout had on the outcomes of key political races in North Carolina last year- and the impacts it didn't. You can read the full thing here.
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The State House presents a rosier picture for Democratic prospects moving forward. There were eight seats that the party’s nominee won by ten points or less, but considerably fewer of them would be made highly vulnerable by a reversion to more standard black turnout in 2010:

Contest	Actual Result	Estimated Result
HD 3	Underhill +2	Too Close to Call
HD 10	Braxton +3	LaRoque +2
HD 25	Stewart +10	Stewart +4
HD 41	Harrell +8	Harrell +6
HD 81	Holliman +5	Holliman +2
HD 88	Warren +1	Too Close to Call
HD 93	Tarleton +7	Tarleton +7
HD 116	Whilden +3	Whilden +2

Out of the eight closest Democratic won districts, just three of them look like they could really have gone the other way if not for high African American turnout this year. Van Braxton, who represents a conservative eastern North Carolina district, is the only legislator who we would classify as a probable loser if not for the Obama factor. Ray Warren’s race went to a recount anyway so a small change in the composition of the electorate certainly could have sent the race the other way, as any small factor more than likely could have. Alice Underhill’s district would have been in too close to call status.

The districts of Jane Whilden, Cullie Tarleton, and Ty Harrell don’t have particularly significant African American populations so that was not an important factor in their victories. Randy Stewart, who replaces Bill Daughtridge, does have a heavily black district but his margin was large enough that it didn’t tip the scales by any means and there is some chance he’ll have an easier path in 2010 when he can run as an incumbent. Hugh Holliman’s contest would have been even closer but there’s little doubt he would have ended up on top.

While the Obama factor may have helped to ensure continued Democratic control of the North Carolina Senate it had very little to do with the party’s continued majority in the House.

Black Turnout in NC: Impacts it had and Impacts it didn't: Conclusion

This is the conclusion of PPP's report about the impacts that high black turnout had on the outcomes of key political races in North Carolina last year- and the impacts it didn't. You can read the full thing here.
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The impact that Barack Obama’s candidacy and the increased black turnout it brought had on down ballot races in North Carolina this year has perhaps been exaggerated. Few contests would have clearly had different winners with a more standard black turnout, although the Governor’s race is certainly a notable one. Nevertheless, ensuring the continued turnout and engagement of those black voters Obama brought out for the first time would go a long way toward ensuring future Democratic electoral success, and as the party faithful pick a new chair one of the top priorities for whoever takes that office should be finding a way to keep those folks in the fold.

Research 2000 does NC

Research 2000 and Daily Kos have a new poll for the 2010 North Carolina Senate picture.

They find relatively similar favorables for Roy Cooper and Richard Burr to what we found when we polled on it last month. Cooper has about 2:1 favorables, and Burr is just +1. One place where the polls differ a good bit is on the level of ambivalence toward Burr. We found that 37% of voters have no opinion about him while they found only 7%. Although Burr has stepped up his public relations efforts lately, I don't think it's making that big of a difference. Regardless of these results I continue to believe he is a pretty unknown commodity to the state's voters.

The other difference is that we found Cooper leading Burr by five points in a head to head while R2K finds him trailing by two. I don't think it really matters at this very early stage, but I note that, as happened in its pre election polls last year, Research 2000 finds Democrats losing the white vote by a factor of more than two to one in North Carolina. That didn't happen this year- Kay Hagan got almost 40% of the white vote against Elizabeth Dole- and I don't think it's likely to happen if Cooper ends up as the Democratic nominee either. That's where the discrepancy lies between us showing Cooper up and them showing Burr up.

They also tested Richard Moore, who does not seem likely to run at this point, and found him trailing 46-40.

We're going to be doing our next round of NC Senate 2010 polling over the next week, with Heath Shuler as this month's tested candidate.