Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Black Turnout in NC: Impacts it had and Impacts it didn't: Introduction

This is the introduction of PPP's report about the impacts that high black turnout had on the outcomes of key political races in North Carolina last year- and the impacts it didn't. You can read the full thing here.
There has been a great deal of discussion since the election about just how important black turnout was to Democratic success in North Carolina, and what implications that might or might not have for the 2010 election when Barack Obama will not be at the top of the ticket.

In 2008 black voters actually turned out at a higher rate than whites in the state, an occurrence pretty much unprecedented. Blacks make up 21-22% of North Carolina’s population, but in 2004 made up only 18-19% of the electorate. In 2006 black turnout was proportionally even lower, falling closer to 17%.

That begs the question: how would the election this year have turned out different if black turnout had fallen in a more standard range, and what implications does that have moving forward?

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