Nate Silver has some interesting observations on Barack Obama's NCAA tournament bracket and his propensity for picking upsets that seems to have some relation to the electoral map.
Looking at the hard copy of Obama's bracket lends some more credence to the theory. There are seven instances where he picked one team to win a game, then crossed it out and picked another team and in five of those cases the change could conceivably have an electoral calculus to it:
-In the final he initially picked Louisville and then changed to UNC. North Carolina was one of the trio of the closest states last year, Kentucky certainly wasn't.
-In the semifinal he initially picked Pittsburgh and changed to UNC. Same thing as above.
-In a second round match he picked Marquette then changed it to Missouri. Missouri, along with North Carolina and Indiana, was part of the triumvirate of the swingiest states last year.
-In another he picked Xavier then changed it to Florida State. While Ohio and Florida are both swing states, Florida was closer last year and the 'Noles have a considerably larger fan base within their state than the Musketeers have within theirs.
-Another changed second round pick, from Clemson to Oklahoma, would not seem to have any political implications with both states dark red.
-In a first round pick he had UCLA winning, then changed it to Virginia Commonwealth. Virginia is likely to be quite competitive at the Presidential level moving forward while California is solidly Democratic.
-He changed from Oklahoma State to Tennessee, another red to red shift.
Do I actually think Obama's bracket was motivated by politics? No. As a good basketball fan he knows that FSU made the ACC final last weekend while Xavier couldn't make the A-10 final. I picked that upset too. And this Tar Heel alum certainly agrees that we're going to be cutting down the nets on Monday night in Detroit. But the relationship is interesting.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Burr vs. the Generic Democrat
For the first time on our North Carolina tracking poll this month we tested Richard Burr against a generic Democrat in addition to an actual prospective opponent. Burr leads 42-38.
That's actually pretty good news for Democrats because 22% of Democrats report being undecided on the generic ballot question while only 12% of Republicans are. Some folks in the party reasonably want to see who the party's actual candidate is before committing to support them but it seems likely most Democratic voters would end up voting for whoever their nominee is.
Only 11% of Democrats say they're committed to voting for Burr against their party's candidate, and with the large Democratic registration and identification advantage in North Carolina most Republicans are going to need to earn around 20% of the Democratic vote to win statewide.
So far we have tested five prospective candidates against Burr for 2010 and only Roy Cooper has outperformed the generic Democratic ballot. Here's how the folks we've tested stack up:
That's actually pretty good news for Democrats because 22% of Democrats report being undecided on the generic ballot question while only 12% of Republicans are. Some folks in the party reasonably want to see who the party's actual candidate is before committing to support them but it seems likely most Democratic voters would end up voting for whoever their nominee is.
Only 11% of Democrats say they're committed to voting for Burr against their party's candidate, and with the large Democratic registration and identification advantage in North Carolina most Republicans are going to need to earn around 20% of the Democratic vote to win statewide.
So far we have tested five prospective candidates against Burr for 2010 and only Roy Cooper has outperformed the generic Democratic ballot. Here's how the folks we've tested stack up:
| Candidate | Margin Relative to Burr |
| Roy Cooper | +5 |
| Generic Democrat | -4 |
| Elaine Marshall | -8 |
| Heath Shuler | -11 |
| Jim Neal | -14 |
| Cal Cunningham | -19 |
Burr leads Marshall, approval still mediocre
PPP's monthly look at Richard Burr's approval rating finds it at 35/32, down from his peak of 41/34 four weeks ago. Burr has not been as visible in the last month as he was during February as a vocal opponent of the economic stimulus package.
Burr's numbers compare unfavorably to Elizabeth Dole's at the same point in the election cycle two years ago. She stood at 43/31.
In a hypothetical contest with Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Burr leads 43-35. Despite running for the Senate in 2002 and serving in statewide office for over ten years, a majority of North Carolina voters don't know enough about her to hold a positive or negative opinion. Among those who do, 28% say they view her favorably with 19% holding an unfavorable view of her.
PPP also tested Marshall against Dole two years ago and found her trailing 46-35.
One of Burr's key points of vulnerability moving toward 2010 is his lack of popularity with the moderate voters who often decide elections in North Carolina. He has just a 26% approval rating with voters who describe themselves that way ideologically, with 37% disapproving.
Full results here
Burr's numbers compare unfavorably to Elizabeth Dole's at the same point in the election cycle two years ago. She stood at 43/31.
In a hypothetical contest with Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Burr leads 43-35. Despite running for the Senate in 2002 and serving in statewide office for over ten years, a majority of North Carolina voters don't know enough about her to hold a positive or negative opinion. Among those who do, 28% say they view her favorably with 19% holding an unfavorable view of her.
PPP also tested Marshall against Dole two years ago and found her trailing 46-35.
One of Burr's key points of vulnerability moving toward 2010 is his lack of popularity with the moderate voters who often decide elections in North Carolina. He has just a 26% approval rating with voters who describe themselves that way ideologically, with 37% disapproving.
Full results here
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
NC voters support bullying bill
69% of North Carolina voters support a proposal in the legislature that would deal with school bullying.
That finding is consistent with a PPP survey from last summer that found 72% of folks in the state supported a controversial clause of the bill specifically dealing with protecting children from bullying based on sexual orientation.
The right wing noise machine killed the proposal last year, but PPP finds that even 55% of voters describing themselves as conservatives and 51% of Republicans support the proposal. This is a case where the loud voices of a small minority drowned out overall public opinion.
Support for the bill is overwhelming from liberals (91%) and moderates (73%) with every gender, age, race, and region group supporting it as well.
Full results here.
That finding is consistent with a PPP survey from last summer that found 72% of folks in the state supported a controversial clause of the bill specifically dealing with protecting children from bullying based on sexual orientation.
The right wing noise machine killed the proposal last year, but PPP finds that even 55% of voters describing themselves as conservatives and 51% of Republicans support the proposal. This is a case where the loud voices of a small minority drowned out overall public opinion.
Support for the bill is overwhelming from liberals (91%) and moderates (73%) with every gender, age, race, and region group supporting it as well.
Full results here.
NC voters oppose sick leave bill
Only 35% of North Carolinians support a proposal in the General Assembly to mandate employers give workers a certain amount of paid sick leave, PPP's newest survey finds.
Republicans (84%) and independents (71%) are particularly opposed to the bill, with Democrats supporting it by a narrow margin (51%).
African Americans and voters who identify themselves as liberals support the measure but beyond that every demographic group PPP tracks by gender, race, age, region, and ideology is opposed.
It appears most North Carolinians think that employee benefits should be determined by employers and employees on a case by case basis and not mandated from Raleigh.
Full results here
Republicans (84%) and independents (71%) are particularly opposed to the bill, with Democrats supporting it by a narrow margin (51%).
African Americans and voters who identify themselves as liberals support the measure but beyond that every demographic group PPP tracks by gender, race, age, region, and ideology is opposed.
It appears most North Carolinians think that employee benefits should be determined by employers and employees on a case by case basis and not mandated from Raleigh.
Full results here
How many electoral votes would Obama get against Palin?
Our new national survey pitting Barack Obama against Sarah Palin in a possible 2012 contest finds Obama leading Palin by 20 points. Obama beat John McCain by just 7 last fall, so it appears he would do 13 points better against Palin.
Palin's poor performance relative to McCain might not necessarily be uniformly spread across the 50 states, but just to get some idea of how many electoral votes Obama would get in a contest against Palin, let's look at the states McCain won by fewer than 13 points last fall:
-Missouri (McCain + .1) 11 EV's
-Montana (McCain + 2.3) 3 EV's
-Georgia (McCain +5.2) 15 EV's
-South Dakota (McCain +8.4) 3 EV's
-Arizona (McCain +8.5) 10 EV's
-North Dakota (McCain +8.6) 3 EV's
-South Carolina (McCain +9.0) 8 EV's
-Nebraska-1 (McCain +9.8) 1 EV
-Texas (McCain +11.8) 34 EV's
So Obama would win approximately 88 more electoral votes in a contest against Sarah Palin than he received against John McCain last fall. That would give him a 453-85 victory in the electoral college.
It's a long way until 2012, but it appears the Republicans nominating Palin would lead to the biggest landslide in a generation.
Full results here.
Palin's poor performance relative to McCain might not necessarily be uniformly spread across the 50 states, but just to get some idea of how many electoral votes Obama would get in a contest against Palin, let's look at the states McCain won by fewer than 13 points last fall:
-Missouri (McCain + .1) 11 EV's
-Montana (McCain + 2.3) 3 EV's
-Georgia (McCain +5.2) 15 EV's
-South Dakota (McCain +8.4) 3 EV's
-Arizona (McCain +8.5) 10 EV's
-North Dakota (McCain +8.6) 3 EV's
-South Carolina (McCain +9.0) 8 EV's
-Nebraska-1 (McCain +9.8) 1 EV
-Texas (McCain +11.8) 34 EV's
So Obama would win approximately 88 more electoral votes in a contest against Sarah Palin than he received against John McCain last fall. That would give him a 453-85 victory in the electoral college.
It's a long way until 2012, but it appears the Republicans nominating Palin would lead to the biggest landslide in a generation.
Full results here.
Obama would crush Palin
Several national polls of Republican voters since the election last fall have shown Sarah Palin as the top choice of the party faithful to be the GOP's nominee for President in 2012. But a new national PPP poll finds that nominating Palin could be a death wish for the party, with Barack Obama leading Palin 55-35 in a hypothetical contest.
The key reason Palin would lose to Obama by so much is that even though she might be the top choice for a certain segment of voters within her party, there's also a number of Republicans who say they would vote for Obama if their party nominated Palin. The Alaska Governor leads Obama just 66-17 among GOP voters. By comparison, John McCain beat Obama 90-9 with the party faithful. So Palin would be losing a lot of ground even with the base if she was the nominee.
Obama leads 89-7 with Democrats and has a more narrow 46-42 advantage with independents.
Despite his strong overall victory last year Obama actually lost the white vote 55-43. But it appears he would shore up his standing with that demographic in a Palin contest, holding a 46-43 lead at this stage. He would dominate the black and Hispanic voters in such a contest, 88-9 and 74-21 respectively.
Obama's overall national approval rating is 55/37. 93% of Democrats but only 14% of Republicans express support for the job he's doing. PPP also finds slightly negative approval for Obama among independents, 41/50. This is a finding at odds with many national surveys but not inconsistent with PPP's state by state polls, which have found Obama's approval in the 40s among unaffiliated voters in states ranging from blue Delaware to purple North Carolina to red Texas.
Palin is viewed negatively by 50% of voters in the country with just 39% holding a positive opinion of her. 69% of Republicans have a favorable view of her, while only 11% of Democrats do.
Full results here.
The key reason Palin would lose to Obama by so much is that even though she might be the top choice for a certain segment of voters within her party, there's also a number of Republicans who say they would vote for Obama if their party nominated Palin. The Alaska Governor leads Obama just 66-17 among GOP voters. By comparison, John McCain beat Obama 90-9 with the party faithful. So Palin would be losing a lot of ground even with the base if she was the nominee.
Obama leads 89-7 with Democrats and has a more narrow 46-42 advantage with independents.
Despite his strong overall victory last year Obama actually lost the white vote 55-43. But it appears he would shore up his standing with that demographic in a Palin contest, holding a 46-43 lead at this stage. He would dominate the black and Hispanic voters in such a contest, 88-9 and 74-21 respectively.
Obama's overall national approval rating is 55/37. 93% of Democrats but only 14% of Republicans express support for the job he's doing. PPP also finds slightly negative approval for Obama among independents, 41/50. This is a finding at odds with many national surveys but not inconsistent with PPP's state by state polls, which have found Obama's approval in the 40s among unaffiliated voters in states ranging from blue Delaware to purple North Carolina to red Texas.
Palin is viewed negatively by 50% of voters in the country with just 39% holding a positive opinion of her. 69% of Republicans have a favorable view of her, while only 11% of Democrats do.
Full results here.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
What you've all been wanting to know
How many electoral votes would Barack Obama get if the GOP nominated Sarah Palin in 2012?
We'll have a new national poll to help answer that question tomorrow.
We'll have a new national poll to help answer that question tomorrow.
People lie to pollsters pt. 2
I argued last fall that while I don't think people lie to pollsters about who they plan to support in an election or what they think about a hot button issue, I do think they sometimes fib about their level of informedness, wanting to make it seem like they follow politics more closely than they actually do.
That's definitely the case with a question we asked on our poll last weekend about whether or not respondents watched Governor Perdue's State of the State Address last week. 32% of the state's voters claimed they did. I would be surprised if actual viewership was more than a tenth of that- perhaps 3% of the state's voters- but I bet even that's on the high end.
The ratings weren't even close to that high for the Carolina-Duke game last weekend.
Either way there are indications within the numbers that the speech might have been a success for the Governor. Her approval rating among those who claimed to watch the speech (51/38) was a good deal better than among those who admitted they didn't (40/34).
If anyone has any hard numbers on tv viewership for the State of the State address, please share!
Full results here.
That's definitely the case with a question we asked on our poll last weekend about whether or not respondents watched Governor Perdue's State of the State Address last week. 32% of the state's voters claimed they did. I would be surprised if actual viewership was more than a tenth of that- perhaps 3% of the state's voters- but I bet even that's on the high end.
The ratings weren't even close to that high for the Carolina-Duke game last weekend.
Either way there are indications within the numbers that the speech might have been a success for the Governor. Her approval rating among those who claimed to watch the speech (51/38) was a good deal better than among those who admitted they didn't (40/34).
If anyone has any hard numbers on tv viewership for the State of the State address, please share!
Full results here.
Perdue Approval Unaffected by Lottery Reallocation
A strong majority of North Carolina voters are opposed to Bev Perdue's proposal to help balance the budget using lottery money, but it's not having any impact on her overall approval, which remains in positive territory.
63% of respondents think that lottery proceeds should continue to be spent solely on education. That sentiment is particularly strong with Republicans (77%) and independents (72%). Democrats are evenly split on the proposal.
Perdue's approval rating is 44/35, pretty much the same as her 43/32 spread a month ago. For the second month in a row her numbers in greater Charlotte (44/31) are better than her overall statewide figures, an indication that her efforts to reach out to the region where she fared the poorest at the polls in November are working. She's also doing particularly well in the Triangle (56/29) and in her home base of eastern North Carolina (52/35).
And perhaps most important with the budget coming out today, she has particularly strong numbers among voters most concerned with the economy (50/29). It's the top issue for 55% of the state, and Perdue gets stronger numbers on it than anything else besides health care.
The Governor does have some work to do with independents, where her standing has slipped into slightly negative territory (37/39).
Full results here
63% of respondents think that lottery proceeds should continue to be spent solely on education. That sentiment is particularly strong with Republicans (77%) and independents (72%). Democrats are evenly split on the proposal.
Perdue's approval rating is 44/35, pretty much the same as her 43/32 spread a month ago. For the second month in a row her numbers in greater Charlotte (44/31) are better than her overall statewide figures, an indication that her efforts to reach out to the region where she fared the poorest at the polls in November are working. She's also doing particularly well in the Triangle (56/29) and in her home base of eastern North Carolina (52/35).
And perhaps most important with the budget coming out today, she has particularly strong numbers among voters most concerned with the economy (50/29). It's the top issue for 55% of the state, and Perdue gets stronger numbers on it than anything else besides health care.
The Governor does have some work to do with independents, where her standing has slipped into slightly negative territory (37/39).
Full results here
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