Early polling could mean very little

Frank Williams at the NC Republican Roundtable blog reminds us all that early polling can mean very little. He provides us with an example from only three years ago.

...I stumbled upon a July 2004 issue of The Raleigh World...

On page 3 of the publication I found a brief article entitled "A two-man governor's race." The article says, "a new poll suggests that the governor's race in North Carolina -- at least on the Republican side -- has become a two-man race." The article says that the statewide poll, conducted by The Anderson Group, showed Richard Vinroot leading the pack with 26%, followed by Bill Cobey with 22%.

Here's the kicker. The article goes on to say, "the big loser in the survey is Patrick Ballantine, who was thought to be a serious challenger, but who so far has been able to poll only 12 percent."

Just a few short weeks later, Patrick Ballantine emerged as the primary winner, followed closely by Vinroot.

So much for a two-man governor's race.