Friday, April 20, 2007

Elon Poll is out

The latest Elon Poll is out. Here are some excerpts from their press release:
The poll, conducted April 16-19 by the Elon University Institute for Politics and Public Affairs, surveyed 476 North Carolina residents. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percent. The sample is of the population in general and does not restrict respondents by their voter eligibility or their likelihood of voting in an election. The questions concerning the 2008 presidential and gubernatorial races were open-ended, and the respondents were not given a list of candidates from which to choose. Additionally, these questions were asked without regard to party affiliation…
This is a very odd methodology, so be careful to read the results for what they are. On the 2008 Presidential race:
…When asked an open-ended question about who they plan to support in the 2008 presidential election, 57 percent of respondents said they do not know or it is too early to tell.

Ten percent said they plan to support Hillary Clinton, followed by Barack Obama (9 percent), John Edwards (8 percent) and Rudy Giuliani (5 percent). John McCain, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney and Al Gore were each named by 1 percent...
On Elizabeth Dole:
…North Carolina citizens were also asked if they approve or disapprove of the way Elizabeth Dole is handling her job as U.S. Senator. Fifty-two percent approve or strongly approve of her performance, 30 percent disapprove or strongly disapprove, and 18 percent do not know…
On Bush:
…The poll also asked citizens about George W. Bush’s job performance as president. Sixty-one percent disapprove or strongly disapprove of Bush’s performance. Thirty-six percent approve or strongly approve of his job performance, down from 45 percent in a September 2006 Elon Poll…
On Iraq:
…Twenty-eight percent approve or strongly approve of the way Bush is handling the war in Iraq, down from 38 percent in the September 2006 Elon Poll. In this latest poll, 70 percent disapprove or strongly disapprove of Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq.

Sixty-five percent disapprove or strongly disapprove of Bush’s plan to increase the number of troops in Iraq; 32 percent approve or strongly approve. When asked whether they support or oppose plans for setting a timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq in 2008, 60 percent support or strongly support such a plan, while 35 percent oppose or strongly oppose such a plan…

2 comments:

Blue South said...

Local NPR talked about these results. They failed to mention the methodology though, and presented it just straight verbatim.

Justin Guillory said...

Yeah, that's frustrating. It's not that the poll is without value. It is interesting and perhaps valuable that not many North Carolinians will come up with the name John Edwards. And it is interesting and valuable to see the difference between EVERYONE and just likely voters. But it is misleading to report the data without some explanation that the methodology is significantly different than other polls results. It's comparing apples and oranges.

 
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