Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Edwards' lead in NC remains

It’s been a busy couple of weeks of polling for us. So let me get back to discussing the Civitas poll. Lost in the shuffle were their results in the primary races. Results are here:

Democrat President
Edwards 26%
Clinton 23%
Obama 17%

Democrat Governor
Perdue 33%
Moore 24%

Republican President
Thompson 28%
Giuliani 21%
McCain 10%
Romney 8%

Republican Governor
Orr 16%
Smith 16%
Graham 8%

After our July poll had Edwards losing his lead in North Carolina, many people decried it as the end of the Edwards campaign. According to this poll, that’s probably premature. Edwards still has strength in his home state.

The Civitas poll confirms our findings that Fred Thompson, the non-candidate candidate, has taken the lead in the Tar Heel State. From what I’ve seen of polls in other states, Thompson is leading in most southern states, while he trails Giuliani and Romney in non-southern states, particularly Iowa and New Hampshire. Since such a large part of the Republican Party is based in the south, that helps explain his high standing in national polls, but it won’t help him as much in the early winner-take-all primaries – besides South Carolina.

In the Governor’s races, Civitas consistently has Beverly Perdue leading Richard Moore by more than we do. They have her leading by 9 points; we put her lead at 4.

1 comment:

Brian said...

Edwards' "lead" is within the MoE.

 
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