Monday, July 9, 2007

Jack Murphy for Lt. Governor

Robert P at BlueNC made an interested suggestion for our next primary tracking poll. He suggested adding the fictional name "Jack Murphy" to our next Lieutenant Governor tracking poll and hypothesized he would get 5-9%, putting him in the thick of the race. Robert's probably right.

At the moment none of the Lt. Gov. candidates are well known statewide. For the past 5 months, the five candidates have hovered around 10% each, while 60% of Democratic primary voters are undecided. That pattern is likely to continue until the candidates start spending money.

So why exactly are we polling the Lt. Gov. race this far out from Primary Day? We think it will be worth it once the campaign heats up, and especially after the primary. We will have established a long trend line for a low intensity statewide race-- something that hasn't been done in North Carolina before. That should prove valuable in analyzing the dynamics of the race. We will be able to see when voters start to make up their minds. Does that correspond to when people begin spending money? Will TV ads make a difference? Etc. Etc.

We will also begin tracking other council-of-state primaries once the candidate fields take shape in each party. The Republican and Democratic races for State Treasurer have started to come together in the last month, maybe we can start tracking that race by August.

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