Elizabeth Dole 51
Kay Hagan 37
Elizabeth Dole has rebounded strongly after Kay Hagan's post-primary bounce in the polls.
One of the biggest red flags for Hagan is difficulty in securing the black vote. Right now she leads Dole just 52-28 with them, and the 20% of African American voters who report being undecided is higher than almost any other demographic. Hagan will have to significantly improve her standing there to have any chance this fall.
Hagan is also trailing 45-32 with independents even as Obama leads them 43-31. That's an indication some mass of folks are voting an Obama/Dole ticket, and she'll need to convince them otherwise.
There's plenty of time between now and November but the surplus of funds that allowed Dole to wage a June ad campaign has definitely set Hagan back compared to where she was six weeks ago.
Full results here.