Monday, June 9, 2008

Polling in the new campaign

It's going to be very interesting to see state by state polling in the next few weeks now that Hillary is out of the race and has endorsed Obama.

Our most recent poll, conducted a week and a half ago, found only 58% of Hillary supporters would support Barack Obama against John McCain.

But check out this comment from Paula Dorn of Shallotte, NC in the Charlotte Observer last week:
“If you'd asked me a week ago, I probably would have said I wouldn't vote for Barack Obama,” Dorn, 49, said Tuesday. “At that point I was much angrier. I've had time to relax.”
If a good chunk of those 42% of Hillary folks we polled last month who didn't say they supported Obama are like Paula Dorn, I expect we're going to see the poll numbers by state point to a take of more than 300 electoral votes for Obama by the end of the month.

2 comments:

Lance S said...

Good point. I've been saying for awhile that, assuming no game changing events over the next five months, Obama has a higher probability of topping 300 EV than McCain does of reaching 270. Of course, only time will tell.

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