Thursday, June 26, 2008

PPP pro-Obama?

We'll be the first to grant that the polls we've put out in Michigan, Ohio, and Virginia over the last week and a half have all been pretty good news for Barack Obama.

Every single time one of those comes out, I see a variety of comments on blogs to the effect of 'that's good to hear, but don't PPP's numbers always favor Obama?'

The answer is that they actually don't. I think we got that reputation because of our bad poll in Pennsylvania, where we did show Obama doing better much better than he did. But we actually underestimated Obama in eight out of eleven primary polls we did, and in two of the three cases where we did overestimate his final standing it was only by one point.

Now our polls did almost always show Obama doing better than most of the other public polls out at the same time. But that's because in most of the states we polled all of the pollsters underestimated Obama. We just didn't underestimate him as bad as most of our competitors.

Here's the data on this issue:

State

PPP’s Final Poll

Actual Result

Pollster.com Average

South Carolina

Obama +20

Obama +28

Obama +15

Georgia

Obama +16

Obama +36

Obama +14

Tennessee

Clinton +22

Clinton +13

Clinton +22

New York

Clinton +19

Clinton +17

Clinton +19

Wisconsin

Obama +13

Obama +17

Obama +7

Ohio

Clinton +9

Clinton +10

Clinton +6

Texas

Clinton +6

Clinton +4

Clinton +2

Pennsylvania

Obama +3

Clinton +10

Clinton +7

North Carolina

Obama +10

Obama +14

Obama +7

Indiana

Clinton +5

Clinton +2

Clinton +4

Oregon

Obama +19

Obama +18

Obama +13

Average

Obama +1.8

Obama +5.2

Clinton +.4

2 comments:

Pyronite said...

Pshaw. We all know PPP intentionally under-estimated the breadth of Obama's victories in an attempt to influence RealClearPolitic's expectations for his primary wins.

Playing the low expectations game: the oldest trick in the book! What are you, on the Obama payroll, or something?

Anonymous said...

Thanks for this post. Your numbers speak for themselves.

 
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